Finding Opportunity Where You Least Expect It

In my last blog post of 2016, I argued that change is coming whether we like it or not:

“Change can feel uncontrollable. Change can be disorienting. Change can bring fear, uncertainty, and doubt like no other social force…The real question for all of us is not whether we like change, whether we want change, or even whether we think change is good. Instead, the question is whether we are ready, and what are we going to do about it?”

With the inauguration of President Donald Trump, I’ve been reflecting on that core premise, in particular in light of the many misgivings and fears I have about what the Trump administration will bring for our country. I watch the news each morning during breakfast and read reports of the various machinations going on in Washington, DC, and indeed elsewhere in the country. I learn about protests, backlashes, twitter rants, and angry threats from all sides. And then I sigh thinking that people are missing an important point.

Whether we are Ryan Republicans, Trump supporters, Clinton Democrats, or feel the Bern, we all need to step back and realize that this is not about a party, a campaign, a victory, or a defeat. The celebration must end, the whining must stop, the denial must evaporate. As frustrated as I am with what I see, I know we must turn our passions towards the future. We are amidst a watershed time of change in America, and we have to galvanize ourselves to take advantage of the opportunity that disruptive, and often scary change provides. It is time to move on and deal with what is next. It is time to find opportunity where we least expect it.

In that same blog post, I laid out five concepts we need to embrace to turn change into opportunity...

Acceptance, Adapt or Die, Play Offense, Skip to the Future, Play for the Season.

I want to complete that thought by sharing more ideas on how each of these concepts can help turn the current tumult and turmoil into something constructive.

1.    Acceptance

So many have asked the question “how did Donald Trump win?” To me, that is old news – let’s accept that he found a way to win. The important question is WHY did he win? Certainly, Hillary Clinton was an especially vulnerable candidate, but I think there are more fundamental issues at work. As I’ve argued before, a large segment of Americans feel disenfranchised through poverty and a belief that the system is rigged against them. They want hope and opportunity – and will tune out all of the noise around Trumpism as long as it promises them something new. Any plan to make progress in our country must accept this premise and address the fundamental issues that are driving people to extremes solutions.

2.    Adapt or Die

“Make America Great Again” is fundamentally a backwards looking statement. It brings to mind images from a time when the country was a manufacturing powerhouse, when we could insulate ourselves from the rest of the world, and if we are honest, when white, American men were the decision makers. Regardless of what Trump says, that America is gone and it is not coming back. 

The question is how we engage those being displaced by the economic and social transformation in our country – how do we prepare them for a new role, complete with opportunities for a brighter future. To pick the prototypical rustbelt example, we need a plan that offers a future for Detroit. This requires deep investment in infrastructure, in education, in re-training, and in next-generation jobs. There are plenty of opportunities that don’t require an engineering degree to find a successful, middle class career – we must build and enable that pipeline.

3.    Play Offense Not Defense

Since the election, protests, legal challenges, and exposes have all become weapons of choice in the policy battleground. I loved the passion on display during the marches after the inauguration – peaceful resistance is powerful. Moreover, there is certainly a defensive role that needs to be played, particularly in the court system, to limit efforts to restrict civil rights, invade privacy, damage the environment, and abuse power. But this mostly a rear-guard action is not sufficient and not where the battle will be won. 

The real challenge is developing and proposing a set of policies that drive change in education and job training, immigration, tax reform, energy policy, health care, and infrastructure development. There must be proactive, effective alternatives to whatever proposals the new administration and Congress make. Where there is room for agreement, progress must be made through compromise and win-win solutions. Where there is not, a credible alternative puts those “out of power” in a much better position for the future than just complaining or being nay-sayers. The pendulum will swing back – and all of us need to be ready.

4.    Skip to the Future

The current policy battlegrounds include repealing Obamacare, restricting immigration, redefining trade policies, reevaluating our middle east and Russian relationships, and reforming the tax system. Unfortunately, our approach to these problems has been largely “conventional wisdom”, and we are not thinking at all about the new issues around the proverbial corner. Ask the simple question: if we were trying to create the equivalent of Social Security or Medicare from scratch, what would we do? Certainly nothing like what we have today. This is not about Obamacare, rather it is about effective, affordable healthcare. We need to apply the innovative business and experience approaches that brought us everything from Uber to Starbucks to Tesla to Wikipedia – and apply those to the social, civic, and global challenges of the day. Getting ahead of the game means using new approaches and anticipating challenges in the future. 

5.    Play for the Season, Not the Game

Again, let’s start with a question: where do we want to be in ten years? As I discuss in my book, Xbox Revisited: A Game Plan for Corporate and Civic Renewal, what is our Purpose…what is the north star for our efforts in shaping the future of the country? Our goal cannot be to return America to where it was – that is an empty campaign promise designed to make people feel comfortable without any hope of actually making things better. 

As an alternative, how would we approach issues if our Purpose was “United for the State of America”? 

If that truly was our goal, collaboration for the common good would be the metric we used to measure our leaders, and blocking solutions to problems would be unacceptable. Rallying people around this long-term objective would also provide leaders more time and opportunity to fight through some of the more difficult problems. Issues like education, infrastructure, work force transformation, and health care reform will not be solved in one, two or even four years. We can’t be impatient when we lose a game – we have to stay focused on a championship season.

There is one aspect of the new regime that is most troubling. Donald Trump is an insecure, egocentric, bully, and his “policy by twitter rant” puts pressure on people to acquiesce. To deal with someone like this, we must remember two important things: first, only pick fights over issues that matter. Although I have great respect for Congressman John Lewis, I don’t think picking a fight over the legitimacy of Trump’s election is very useful. It is done, a protest will not change that, and there is no way to win that fight. Instead, pick a fight with Trump on issues that DO matter and where an opposing policy could make a difference, like trade reform or immigration or our relationship with Russia and China.

Second, when you get into it with a bully, you cannot back down. I watch CEOs shift their policies (and their PR) to deal with Trump’s drive for US jobs, and I am waiting for a corporate leader to stand up and say, “We will do what is right for our company and our shareholders – and we will fight against random reprisals.” It is not a good way to make friends or win in the short term, but it is the only way to play the game with a bully in the long-term. Bullies only understand one language – being hit in the nose.

There is certainly a tremendous amount of uncertainty right now – and to many, the world looks very dark and scary. I definitely think risks and dangers lurk in the shadows going forward, and the Trump brand of populism is filled with false promises. But I also believe this can and will be the turning point. I don’t have a great deal of hope for a Trump administration, but I think the crisis we are in can plant the seeds for a better future. It can motivate better leaders to come to the forefront. It can force people to recognize the challenges for what they are and find win-win ways to fix them.

There is great opportunity, in these, the darkest of days.