Finding a new job is hard right now, but why?

Whether you are employed but considering new opportunities or in full-time job search mode, you may have seen a wave of articles about how challenging it is to find a job right now. In this article, we will try to help explain what is happening using data and offer some advice rarely shared from the recruiting industry.

Many candidates we speak with that are searching for a new job, report they have applied to hundreds of positions with only a small percentage of success.? What could be going on? After all, we are supposed to be in the best job market ever with relatively low unemployment.? Well, let’s have a look at the data.

In the above chart, you can see it’s true we’ve had the largest increase recently in open positions (blue line) in a short amount of time compared over the past 20 years.? In the past 2 years though we’ve seen an almost equal decline in those open positions and an uptick in layoffs/unemployment (red line).? If we are still having the “best job market in decades”, why doesn’t it feel that way?? It could be because the decrease in job openings we’ve had over the past 3 years is similar to what we see and feel in a recession. If you compare the past 3 recessions, the delta/drop from peak to bottom was 43% for 2001 - 2003, 55% for 2007 – 2009, and 38% for 2018 – 2020.? For our present situation 2022 – 2024 we have dropped about 30% so far from peak.

The only difference this time (outside of if the data is actually telling the full story) is that we are falling from a higher point due to the post-pandemic surge, which makes the numbers look good on paper and news articles but not what the everyday person is experiencing as the economy is being forced to decelerate to combat inflation.

The “headcount lever” which is Human Resources lingo for layoffs, restructurings, or efficiencies, is a common and quick action that can be executed by business leaders to eliminate cost within a business.? When companies run into economic headwinds or financial distress, this is usually the quickest way to eliminate cost though not ideal considering the impact to employees.? Unemployment moved up slightly to 3.9% last month but for perspective, it’s still a long way from the days of 10% (2009) and 14% (2020).

So, does this mean that you can’t look for a new job?? Of course not, many great companies are still hiring, and most companies continue to hire throughout different market cycles. It may not be broad high-volume hiring mode like 2021, but most stable companies are not going out of business and will just be more strategic on their hires and investments into growth.? Just be sure to manage your risk and perform enough research on the opportunities you are considering.? If you need assistance with your search strategy, you can always partner with an expert staffing firm like X-Factor Consulting to help you.

Some uncommon tips to consider in your job search that 99% of agency recruiters won’t share with you:

1.????? Think like HR: When interviewing with a company, ask what the internal mobility rate is, or percentage of total roles every year that are offered to internal candidates. 30% - 50% is ideal, and this will give you an idea of your potential career trajectory, development, and opportunities to move through and up in the business.

2.????? Think like an analyst: Research any layoffs, turnover rate, average tenure, and employee sentiment on LinkedIn, Glassdoor, Fishbowl, Layoffs.fyi , etc.

3.????? Think like an investor: If they are publicly traded have a brief look at the health of the financials. The balance sheet and cash flow statement are a great place to start.? Does the company have high debt?? Are they profitable?? Small to mid-size companies with a lot of debt need to finance that debt in this higher interest rate environment and may have more financial challenges. The ability to increase prices is going away and can impact margins.? If revenue and profit margins are significantly shrinking on a trend, that could be sign of limited hiring or future “cost reductions.”

4.????? Think like a recruiter: find companies that are on hiring trends now. What companies have the most job postings? Which companies are people sharing that they have landed a new job at?

5.????? Think like a salesperson: Keep activity high, networking is key and the #1 way to land a new role in this market.? Reach out to former colleagues and friends, see where they are working. You should always have a multi-faceted strategy when approaching your job search to also include applying to roles, attending industry events, connecting with people, etc. Activity yields results but keep in mind, with less job openings and more people looking, it can take 3 to 4 times more activity than usual in this market to land a new opportunity for many job seekers.