Find out the Factors that are Driving our Traders Today - 05/01/19

Energies are mixed with WTI lower and the other energies positive. API data showed a bigger than expected crude oil stock build.

Surveys from Reuters and JBC Energy (consultants) show OPEC output in April fell by 90,000/115,000 bpd to 30.23/29.9 mln bpd respectively. Reuters says the figure is a 4 year low -and cites involuntary declines in Iran and Venezuela as the reason for the drop.

The EIA yesterday said that US crude production in February fell by 187,000 bpd from January to a total

11.7 mln bpd; due to drops in output in the Gulf of Mexico and North Dakota.  The EIA also reported that US oil demand rose by 2.9%/+545,000 bpd to a total 20.2 mln bpd from Feb, 2018.  (Reuters)

API                     Forecast               Actual

Crude oil              +0.9/+1.4            +6.8

Gasoline               -1.0/-1.3               -1.1

Distillate               -0.1/-0.7              - 2.1

Runs                     -0.6%                 n/av

Cushing                 n/av                   +1.4

Technically, the energies have negative momentum and are likely range bound as the situations in Iran and Venezuela remain fluid. WTI spot futures have support at 6299-6303 then 6228 and resistance at 6400-05 then 6461-65.

ULSD spot futures have support at 20632-48, tested with a low of 20306, then support lies at 20500-10. Resistance is seen at 20956-57 area.

RB June futures have support at 20485-95 then 20300-20 and resistance at 20845-49 then 21005-15.

NG is up 3 cts versus settlement as a double bottom exists from yesterday/today at 2561-2565. Yesterday the EIA reported that February US NG production set a record of 99 bcf, up 1 bcf from January.

Volume in NG futures on the CME was very low yesterday at 223,323 total contracts traded, as per preliminary data.

Technically, NG remains firm with the forward curve again acting bullishly as June August spread is trading at its narrowest in 6 weeks in 6 ticks vs settlement at 6.0 cts. Momentum for the spread is getting nearly overbought with resistance for June vs Aug seen at about 5.7 cts.

Spot NG futures have resistance at 2636-2639 with support at the double bottom mentioned above.

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