Find out the Factors that are Driving our Traders Today - 04/24/19
Energies are mixed with crude oil basically unchanged, but the products lower as API data disappointed for crude oil and gasoline, but the underlying fear of supply loss is still keeping crude oil near the highs seen yesterday, while RB is struggling.
API Forecast Actual
Crude oil +0.4/-0.5 +6.9
Gasoline -0.3/-1.1 +2.2
Distillate -1.0/-1.3 -0.9
Cushing n/av -0.4
Runs +0.9% n/av
Any increase in OPEC production from the Gulf States is not likely to come until June. They will raise output; supposedly, if the demand is there. (Reuters) This notion was underscored by comments from the Saudi oil minister today, he said that they would only boost output to meet customer demand.(Platt's)
Chinese firm Unipec; the trading arm of Sinopec, has bought its first cargoes of oil from the US since September, some having just arrived others set to arrive in early May. (Platt's)
The IEA today commenting on the global oil markets -said that they are "adequately supplied " (direct quote from Platt's article), adding that "global spare capacity remains at comfortable levels" (Direct quote from Reuters).
Technically, the energies are giving us a mixed picture, momentum is trying to stay positive, crude oils have yet to signal a definitive top but RB is showing some signs of weakness. Trading quite a bit below the high seen Monday. The question becoming if gasoline demand will fall off as the price at the pump hits 3 dollars for the first time in quite a while. RB June futures have support at 20470-80 and resistance at 20800-2100.
ULSD June futures have support at 20950-60 and resistance at 21225-36 then 21288-96, there is currently a double bottom from yesterday/today at 2.1077-2.1080.
Brent June futures have support at the dbl bottom of yesterday/today at 7399-7402 and resistance at the gap 7499 - that goes up to 7542.
WTI June futures have support at 6570-76 (the low overnight is 6577) then at 6516-21 with resistance seen at 6660-70 then 6700-04.
Ng is 2 cts higher today -buoyed we suspect by some bargain hunting as next day cash Hub pricing seems stable in the upper 240's. NG spot futures settled Tuesday at their lowest value since June , 2016, creating another mean reversion set up. Bespoke Weather sees longer term summer demand this year lagging last year. (Yahoo Finance) Platt's survey is calling for +90 bcf this week for EIA NG data, comparing to last year's 20 bcf withdrawal and the 5 yr avge injection of 47 bcf. Platt's further states that the coming 2 weeks' data will see injections of 122 and then 115 bcf, well above last year's and 5 yr avge numbers.
Platt's reports that the Permian Waha Texas pricing rose on Tuesday by 25 cts from weekend pricing as some relief is seen as a pipeline to Mexico is seen opening up, easing some of the takeaway problem that caused pricing there to go negative last month. May pricing at the Waha hub was seen up 32 cts as the flow of takeaway on the pipe could be 1/4 bcf.
Technically, the NG is trying to keep positive momentum as it has another mean reversion set up based on yesterday's close below the lower DC bollinger band. There is currently a double bottom from yesterday/today at 2447-2450 providing support--resistance above lies at the double top from Mon/Tues at 2535.
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