Financial Impact Analysis of Additional Oil Imports Due to Lower Solar P-Value

Understanding the P-Value in Solar Energy

The P-value is a critical measure in solar energy forecasting. It represents the probability that a solar photovoltaic (PV) system will generate at least a certain percentage of its theoretical maximum output.

• P50 means there is a 50% chance that the solar farm will generate at least the predicted energy output.
• P35 means there is a 35% chance that the farm will generate at least the predicted output, reflecting a more conservative estimate due to lower solar irradiance or other environmental factors.

Analysis of P35 (actual recorded value) vs P50 (Project specified value) Impact on Oil Imports for Electricity Generation in Mauritius

Mauritius' electricity production in 2020 was as follows:

• Gas, coal, and oil: 1,851.36 GWh
• Solar: 145.1 GWh
• Total renewables: 300.9 GWh
• Biofuel (bagasse & others): 684.45 GWh
• Total solar installed capacity: 125 MWdc

Theoretical Maximum Solar Generation (P100)

Assuming uninterrupted sunlight, the theoretical annual energy output would be:

125?MW×24?hours×365?days=1,095,000?MWh=1,095?GWh125 \text{ MW} \times 24 \text{ hours} \times 365 \text{ days} = 1,095,000 \text{ MWh} = 1,095 \text{ GWh}

Solar Energy Output Under Different P-Values

Scenario 1: P50 (50% Capacity Factor - Project Specified)

1,095×0.50=547.5?GWh1,095 \times 0.50 = 547.5 \text{ GWh}

Scenario 2: P35 (35% Capacity Factor - Value recorded in December 2024 to Feb 2024)

1,095×0.35=383.25?GWh1,095 \times 0.35 = 383.25 \text{ GWh}

Delta Between P50 and P35

The difference in solar generation between P50 and P35 is:

547.5?383.25=164.25?GWh547.5 - 383.25 = 164.25 \text{ GWh}

This means 164.25 GWh less renewable energy must be compensated by imported fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas).

Compensation by Heavy Oil Imports

• Thermal plant efficiency (assumed): 35%
• Energy required from oil to replace 164.25 GWh of lost solar output:

164.250.35=469.29?GWh?of?oil?input\frac{164.25}{0.35} = 469.29 \text{ GWh of oil input}

• Heavy oil energy density: ~11.6 MWh per ton
• Additional heavy oil imports required:

469.2911.6≈40,460?tons?of?heavy?oil\frac{469.29}{11.6} \approx 40,460 \text{ tons of heavy oil}

Impact on Mauritius' Energy Strategy

1. Increased Fossil Fuel Dependence: Lower P-values lead to higher oil imports, increasing Mauritius’ reliance on imported fossil fuels.
2. Higher Electricity Costs: More oil imports mean higher fuel import bills, impacting consumer electricity rates.
3. Carbon Emissions: Increased fossil fuel usage results in higher CO? emissions, hindering sustainability efforts.
4. Risk Exposure: Greater dependence on imported oil exposes Mauritius to volatile global oil prices and potential supply disruptions.
5. Need for Energy Storage: Investments in battery storage or pumped hydro systems could help mitigate solar variability and reduce reliance on oil.

Economic Impact: Additional Cost of Heavy Oil Imports

• Low Estimate: 40,460×500=$20.23?million40,460 \times 500 = \$20.23 \text{ million}
• High Estimate: 40,460×700=$28.32?million40,460 \times 700 = \$28.32 \text{ million}

Conclusion

A shift from P50 to P35 in solar generation leads to an additional 40,460 tons of oil imports per year, costing Mauritius an extra $20M to $28M annually. This highlights the financial and environmental risks of low P-values in solar energy production and reinforces the need for better energy forecasting, improved solar panel efficiency, and energy storage solutions.