Financial headwinds and political headaches

Good afternoon ????

The IMF and World Bank are currently gathered for their annual meetings in Marrakech – the first such conflab on the continent in 50 years! While the conference enables Morocco to demonstrate its resilience following a devastating earthquake last month, the region’s economic outlook is less impressive. The multilaterals expect continental GDP growth to slip to 3.3% in 2023, before rebounding to 4.0% in 2024. The Bank and the Fund call for African central bankers to hold their nerves, maintaining tight monetary policy until inflation declines, while also managing exchange rate pressures. Finance ministries and tax authorities will also need to play their part, boosting domestic revenue mobilisation to offset high borrowing costs, which preclude governments from extending debt obligations. As if this was not enough, governments will have to contend with a cost-of-living crisis and mounting political instability.?

Yours, protective of piggy-banks,

AP editorial team

?? ISRAEL-PALESTINE CONFLICT: THE VIEW FROM AFRICA

African responses to Hamas militants' attack on southern Israel on 7 October have been as diverse as the continent itself. Despite fundamental divisions over Palestine, African leaders have so far been near-unanimous in their calls for peace. Consultant Hannah Atkins assesses Africa's evolving relations with Israel, and weighs the potential geopolitical and macroeconomic implications for the continent at large.

?? 40 MILLION

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation will invest USD 40 million to boost access to mRNA vaccines for protection against various diseases in Africa. The funds will be targeted at Belgium’s Quantoom Biosciences and two vaccine manufacturers on the continent – Senegal's Institut Pasteur de Dakar and South Africa's Biovac – with USD 10 million available for other vaccine manufacturers.

???? BALLOT D’OR

Votes are being counted in Liberia after citizens voted in the first round of a presidential poll on 10 October. Incumbent George Weah, a former professional footballer, is seeking re-election. His main challenger is Joseph Bokai, formerly vice-president (2006-2018), who Weah defeated in the last election. Weah will be looking to secure a first round win by obtaining an absolute majority, which may materialise given concerns over voter registration and institutional independence. However, a run-off election remains possible, and especially given indications of high turnout. The National Election Commission is expected to begin releasing provisional results later today.

???????? CONFLICT COMRADES

Cameroon and Chad have agreed to strengthen military cooperation along their shared border, following a meeting between their respective defence ministers. The border is subject to near-daily Boko Haram attacks and other cross-border crimes, including attacks on civilians by armed gangs, kidnappings for ransom, and wildlife poaching. Complicating the issue is frontier demarcation, with competing claims to towns and natural resources along the porous, undefined border. Tensions persist over a cross-border oil pipeline from Doba in southern Chad to the Cameroonian port of Kribi. Despite N'Djamena recalling its ambassador over Yaoundé’s decision to nationalise its half of the pipeline earlier this year, the resumption of intelligence sharing and defence cooperation underscores its importance to human security and natural resource management.

???? POLL TIME

Mozambicans across 65 municipalities head to the polls today to vote in local elections, with the ruling Frelimo party determined to regain control of areas under opposition leadership. The pre-electoral period has been fraught with allegations of irregularities, preferential voter registration and vandalism of opposition party offices. Hotly contested races are expected in Beira, the historic stronghold of the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM), as well as the coastal municipalities in Nampula and Zambezia provinces, held by MDM and leading opposition party Renamo. The town of Mocímboa da Praia in Cabo Delgado province presents another challenge to Frelimo, following local unrest in the wake of alleged abuses by the Mozambican army. Losses in the capital, Maputo, and largest city, Matola, would dent the political aspirations of Frelimo’s campaign manager, Celso Correia, who reportedly has ambitions to succeed President Filipe Nyusi.

???? PUZZLING PRIVATISATION

Kenya’s government is backing out of the nationalisation of mobile network operator Telkom, a year after it finalised the purchase of shares from private equity firm Helios to become the sole proprietor. The fate of Kenya’s flailing telco has been debated for years, including a push for a merger with Airtel in 2019. The Ruto government now alleges foul play in the deal initiated under the previous administration, and claims that it has already found a new buyer for its stake. The move to spin off Telkom comes as privatisation plans accelerate, with the government seeking to bolster public coffers by selling and leasing state entities, including the Kenya Ports Authority, despite resistance from the opposition.

??? MONUMENTAL ART

An awe-inspiring sculptural installation created by Ghanaian artist El Anatsui – the artist’s largest work to date – has been unveiled in the Turbine Hall of the Tate Modern in London. Behind the Red Moon is composed of thousands of metal bottle tops and fragments, stitched together into three expansive abstract compositions. The work is intended to reflect on the expanse of human history and the elemental power of the natural world – reflecting Anatsui’s interest in histories of encounters and the migration of goods and people during the transatlantic slave trade. The installation is on display until 14 April 2024.??

???? ASTONISHING FEET

Kenya’s Kelvin Kiptum smashed the current world record by 34 seconds at the weekend’s 2023 Chicago Marathon, his US-debut. Kiptum crossed the finish line with an unofficial time of 2 hours and 35 seconds, surpassing the time set by his compatriot Eliud Kipchoge at the 2022 Berlin Marathon. If confirmed, the 23-year-old will become the first athlete in the world to break 2 hours and 1 minute in a record-eligible marathon – an astonishing feat.?

?? BYTE-SIZE TECH: FROM DIGITAL ID TO DPI

African governments are taking a growing interest in e-ID as a crucial pillar of digital public infrastructure (DPI). India is a lodestar in this space, and is collaborating with African governments such as Nigeria to share insights. So far, India’s MOSIP – creator of e-ID system Aadhar – has offered guidance to Ethiopia, Morocco, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Togo. Ethiopia’s Fayda exemplifies this inspiration, aiding financial inclusion and supporting refugees. Meanwhile, India’s National Payments Corporation is reportedly in discussions with Kenya to expand the Unified Payment Interface, just as authorities hit pause on the Maisha Number project – perhaps awaiting further assistance to expand its own DPI.

??? TURKEY-AFRICA BUSINESS ECONOMIC FORUM

Kimera Chetty, Head of Public Policy and Regulatory Affairs, will be speaking at the DE?K - Foreign Economic Relations Board Turkey-Africa Business Economic Forum on 12 October in Istanbul. The event, held? in collaboration with the African Union, will revolve around enhancing infrastructure investments in Africa and devising innovative financing mechanisms for addressing the continent's most pressing investment requirements. Kimera will be contributing to a panel discussion on enhancing investments in energy, telecommunication and transport networks on the continent.?

??? 2024 LEADING FOR HUMANITY COHORT

The Desmond and Leah Tutu Legacy Foundation is looking for 20 participants for its first Leading for Humanity cohort of 2024, taking place in March 2024. The immersive programme will focus on bringing together small but diverse cohorts – across sectors, backgrounds and professions – to collectively explore the work of leading for humanity. Deadline is 5 November.

?? FUGITIVE ARCHIVES

Fugitive Archives: A Sourcebook for Centring Africa in Histories of Architecture explores how to centre Africa in histories of modern architecture by developing new ways of finding, seeing, and listening. Assembled by the research fellows of Centring Africa: Postcolonial Perspectives on Architecture at the Canadian Centre for Architecture, the book highlights the diverse actors, practices, and geographies – on and off the continent – implicated in the history of modern African architecture.

?? SO HARD TO TELL — DEBBY FRIDAY?

Last month, Nigerian-born Canadian musician Debby Friday’s debut album GOOD LUCK won the Polaris Prize – Canada’s most prestigious music award. Her acceptance speech called for people to believe in their talents and gifts no matter how strange they may seem to others. Debby’s comfort in being labelled as strange is clear in “SO HARD TO TELL”, a slow-paced ballad that hints at her punk and techno roots.?

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