Final Evaluation of the Contest for Control of the House of Representatives
The race for the control of the House appears to be close perhaps as close and the outcome is uncertain.? My gut tells me that the Democrats will take control perhaps by 5 to 10 seats, but I can’t rule out a smaller margin or a Republican victory.? The comments describing the thought process behind this forecast benefited from data on individual races.?This New York Times article is a great source of data.?
?My analysis:?
·????? There are now more vulnerable Republicans in the House than vulnerable Democrats after two consecutive elections where Republicans gained seats.? Even if Trump wins an electoral college victory, Harris and the Democrats will win the popular vote and a higher popular vote total should result in the Democrats winning most close contests.
?·????? Some of the races, which were extremely tight in 2022 and which could go either way include AZ 1, AZ 6, CA 13, CA 22, CO 8, ME 2, MI 10, NM 2, NJ 7, NY 17, NY 4, NY 22, OR 5, PA 7, PA 10, WA 3, and WI 3.? Many other seats are in play.
?·????? Six or more seats could conceivably flip from red to blue in New York and California two blue states where Republicans overperformed in 2022.? These states will have much larger turnout in 2024.
?·????? The New York times article puts close races in five categories – Likely D, Lean D, Toss-up, Likely R, and Lean R.? I believe at least four of the lean R races are incorrectly classified and should be considered toss-ups.? MI 7now an open seat was won by the Democrat by over 5 points in 2022.? The incumbent Republican in MI 10 won by half a point in 2022.? The Democrats have fielded and funded great candidates in NY 17 and WI 3.?
?·????? Democrats have underinvested in house races in both Florida and Texas even as they spend gobs of money on senate races in both houses.? I see only one potential Democrat pickup in Florida – FL 13 where the Republican candidate Luna is weak, and the Democrat candidate Fox is strong. Interestingly, the New York Times did not find any Republican seats in Texas to be in play.
?·????? There are likely to be some House seats where a solid R or solid D incumbent loses.? One such race is PA 12, a district with a large Jewish population where the congresswoman Summer Lee is staunchly anti-Israel, and her district has a large Jewish population.
?·????? Abortion could be a deciding factor in several races, especially in states with an abortion referendum on the ballot and with vulnerable Republican incumbents.? Abortion appears to be especially important in AZ 1, AZ6, IA 1, IA 3, and FL 13.? AZ 6 and IA 3 are the most likely districts to flip blue.? A last-minute poll by a credible forecaster has Harris leading in Iowa.? Democrat pickups in Iowa, if they occur, should be attributed to the abortion issue.
?·????? The Mideast is potentially an important factor in two swing states -- Pennsylvania and Michigan because of large Jewish and Arab populations and may be a factor in several other races. Democrats are equivocating on the Mideast and have been less vocal about antisemitism on college campuses than Republicans
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?o?? Insufficient support of Israel by the Democrat candidate may be an important factor in PA 7, and PA 12.? Summer Lee was able to win a primary challenge despite her inability to fully support Israel.? Most pundits believe she will win reelection.? I believe her Republican opponent will prevail. Another Democrat candidate in PA 10, Janelle Stetson, is? highly supportive of Israel and has a decent chance of unseating Scott Perry.? ??
o?? Many Arab Americans in Michigan are highly torn about the choice between Harris and Trump and may sit out the election potentially impacting MI 7, MI 8 and MI 10.
?·????? Many Republicans have announced that they cannot vote for Trump. Despite, the strength of the MAGA movement many Republican nominees in swing districts are moderate. I expect a lot of ticket splitting, which makes it even more difficult to predict the outcome of the race for control of the House with any degree of confidence.
?·????? Many races come down to candidate quality and money.? In some cases, a strong Democrat or Republican candidate will buck a red or blue wave?? One race to watch on election night is WI 3 a key district in a state that could go either way in the presidential election.? The two candidates Van Orden and Cooke have already spent a combined $12.0 million.? Another race to watch is NY 17 where Mike Lawler could run for governor if he wins reelection.
?This material and more can be found on my substack blog.? Please consider subscribing below.
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