Final 4 Preview: Strengths & Weaknesses of Each Remaining Team

In a season full of parity in the sport of college basketball, we shouldn't be too surprised to see a final four such as this one. Upsets were galore in the regular season, but then taken to a new level once mid-March hit. This is the first year both a 15-seed and a 16-seed won a game in the tournament, along with a Final Four that does not have 1, 2 or 3 seed remaining. UConn is a 4-seed that was projected to finish 4th in their own conference before the season started. Miami reached their first Final Four as a 5-seed and they were also picked to finish 4th in their own conference, behind teams like UNC (missed the tournament), Virginia (1st round elimination) and Duke (2nd round elimination). San Diego State is a 5-seed and from the Mountain West Conference which is a conference that hadn't won an NCAA Tournament game since 2018 (!!!). Finally, Florida Atlantic making it to the Final Four as a 9-seed in their second ever tournament appearance is insane. However, they did have the best regular season record of the four teams in the semi-finals going 31-3 and capturing their first Conference-USA title. How have these four schools reached Houston? Let's take a deeper dive at what these teams do well, and how their opponents can take advantage of their weaknesses.

UConn: The most dominant team all tournament, UConn finds themselves back in the final 4 for the first time since 2014. In their four games so far, they are +90 when it comes to point differential, with their closest win being a 15 point victory over St Mary's in the round of 32. At -125, the Huskies are the heavy favorite to lift up the trophy in six days from now.

Strengths: Led by big man Adama Sanogo, the Huskies dominate the glass. They rank in the top 20 (of 363 college teams) in blocks per game at 4.8, and grab nine more additional rebounds than their opponents on average. They are a deep team, with nine players averaging over 13 minutes per game, which is rare to see in college basketball. They also are the only team left in the "KenPom" stat that I mentioned in a previous article, ranking in the top 20 in AdjO and AdjD (a statistic that produced a bunch of champions in the early 2000s). Finally, they do a great job sharing the basketball, assisting on 63.2% of their made baskets which ranks them 8th in college basketball.

Weaknesses: It is hard to find many weaknesses in UConn's game, but the one that stands out is potential foul trouble. The Huskies commit 18 fouls per game and allow 21 free throws attempted, both extremely high numbers for a team that relies on defense. Along with that, despite how "deep" they may be in terms of rotational players, the scoring doesn't reflect that. Only Sanogo and sophomore guard Jordan Hawkins average double digit scoring.

Miami: As we have seen from their streakiness amongst these tournament games, the Hurricanes rely on efficient offense, depth and guard play. They have trailed in all four of their tournament games so far, three of them in the second half of games, and still sit two wins away from a championship. They currently have the third best odds of the four teams to win the title, at +475.

Strengths: They are an extremely experienced team, led by Isaiah Wong (Junior) and Jordan Miller (Senior). Miami has the 4th most efficient offense in college basketball averaging 1.126 points per possession, and are 10th in FG%. They rank in the top 35 in both 2 point FG% and 3 point FG%, so no shot for these guys truly is a "bad shot". They also hit their free throws at 78% which puts them 15th. Along with that, they truly are a positive "eye test" type of team. They have really strong team chemistry, are always there to make the extra pass and have a very high team basketball IQ.

Weaknesses: Miami wants to get into a shootout, and have scored 85+ points in their previous three matchups. However, they were extremely close to being a one-and-done team as Drake slowed them down into a nail biter in the round of 64. The Hurricanes aren't a big team, with only one rotation player being taller than 6 foot 7. Miami has the 218th best defense in terms of opponents points per game, and opposing teams chuck up an average of 23 three pointers per matchup. None of their NCAA Tournament opponents have shot higher than 33% from three in a game so far, but you wonder how much of that is luck and how much of it is the Miami defense.

San Diego State: Picked as a popular team to get upset in the first round, the Aztecs have been surviving and advancing all the way to the Final Four in Houston. Coming from the non-power five school, SDSU are a defensive-based powerhouse that comfortably rolled through the Mountain West conference tournament. They escaped in the Elite 8 with one-point victory over Creighton, and find themselves with a date with FAU on Saturday. They have the second best odds to win it all, at +370.

Strengths: San Diego State is a defensive juggernaut, giving up less than 65 points in all four of their tournament matchups (which included overall number 1 seed Alabama). The Aztecs normally come out of the locker room locked in, giving up an average of just 27.9 points in the 1st half. Part of that defensive intensity is defending the three point line, where opponents average just 27.7% and only make 6 per game. They also rank in the top 10% when it comes to offensive rebound percentage, with 30.6% of their shots having an extra opportunity. Finally, similar to UConn, they have 9 players that average over 15 minutes per game.

Weaknesses: Getting a team like Miami in the finals could be their downfall as the Aztecs would not thrive in a shootout. They have scored 80+ points four times since January 1st, much rather keeping the game in the 60 point range. Their reasoning for this is that they are a below average shooting team overall, inside the arc, and beyond the arc. They also rank in the bottom third when it comes to second half scoring, so for them to come back in a game where they trail will be a tough ask. Finally, also similar to UConn, they may have 9 rotation players, but only one player that averages double figure scoring (Matt Bradley, 12.5 PPG).

Florida Atlantic: The Boca beach boys seem to be the team of destiny, as a 9-seed that has reached the Final Four. After barely beating Memphis in the first round, they have taken down some big time opponents like Tennessee and Kansas State on their way to a trip to Houston. Even beating those teams, the FAU Owls are the long shots to win the title at +650.

Strengths: FAU doesn't stand out in many things statistically, but they just play some really good team basketball. The Owls live and die by the three pointer, hitting almost 10 a game on 26 attempts, both ranking in the top-20 in college hoops. They do rank 11th in two-point field goal % defense, impacted heavily by 7 foot 1.5 inch Russian big man Vladislav Goldin. Also, they are a solid rebounding team, with a +5.7 average rebounding advantage over their opponents throughout the season, and a +8 average rebounding advantage in the NCAA tournament.

Weaknesses: Their biggest weakness is their free throw shooting, and frequency of getting to the line. They are in the bottom half of the sport when it comes to free throw makes, attempts and %. It's a little bit surprising that it hasn't hurt them already as they only average 12.6 "free" points per contest. Despite being a decent defensive team, they are below average in forcing turnovers, steals and blocks. For a team that plays in Conference-USA and doesn't force turnovers against in-league competition, it's going to be even harder against teams in power five competition.