Filling the capacity-expectation gap
European Liberal Forum
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The election super-year is almost over, but the biggest vote of the year hasn’t taken place yet. On 5 November, Americans will vote for the next US president. Probably more than ever before, this election seems quintessentially American based on the scope of the campaign and the profile of the candidates. Yet, its outcome can have a massive implication on global?geopolitics, economics, and security.??
Reflections from the Democratic National Convention 2024?
On 19-22 August, Ailbhe (Alva) Finn , European Liberal Forum’s Executive Director, attended the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago along with several hundred other international politicians and civil society representatives from across the world.??
During the DNC, the Democratic party nominated Kamala Harris and Tim Walz as its candidates for President and Vice President of the United States. The months-long anxiety in Brussels and in many corners of the world seems to have, if not vanished, but slowly dissipated as joy made a comeback with non-MAGA Americans getting candidates they can bet on.?
Many things are different on the other side of the Atlantic, and politics is no exception. In the day-to-day workings of the EU, it is easy to forget in the Brussels bubble that we are not at the centre of the world. When it comes to American elections, the EU is a topic at the very bottom of the campaign agenda. ?
Will big money, influencers and campaigning with families bring Democrats to victory?Check out our recent blog post by Ailbhe (Alva) Finn on the reflections from the Democratic National Convention 2024.
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What kind of America Europe wants, what kind of Europe America wants?
While a democratic ticket is a more optimistic outcome for the continuity of constructive diplomacy on both sides of the Atlantic, it doesn't address the core problems of the EU-US relationship:?how much autonomy Europe needs to cultivate to have a more equal partnership with the US.?In times of war and peace, what kind of America does Europe want, and what kind of Europe does America want??
The United States is a natural and long-standing ally and partner of Europe. Strong cooperation between the EU and the US is the cornerstone of defending the liberal order and promoting democracy, global stability, security, and prosperity. Nevertheless, America’s growing disengagement from Europe reflects a long-term bipartisan shift. The election results in November might influence the speed of this shift but not its direction.??
"With the return of war in the EU’s immediate neighbourhood, the emergence of new types of hybrid threats and a possible shift of geographic focus and the defence needs of the United States, the EU will have to take growing responsibility for its own defence and security," reads?Mario Draghi's yet-to-be-published draft report as reported by Politico.?
While some of you are waiting for the Draghi report, over the summer, we published Issue 5 of the FEU Journal 'Defending Europe: Geopolitics, Innovation, Democracy', which addresses all?topics linked to European security and defence – from preferential procurement and the European army to the evolving role of NATO and the importance of Europe's neighbourhood. ?
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Open strategic autonomy is a key liberal strategy for shaping Europe’s long-term future, and it's in the best interests of all transatlantic partners. The EU needs to strengthen its strategic autonomy in defence and other critical areas to ensure Europe's ability to act independently when necessary. Becoming strategically autonomous is going to give the EU much-needed negotiating power with our allies and a solid ground to stand on when our interests don’t align.?
A big part of autonomous Europe is a stronger defence-industrial base. Enhanced European military capabilities would not only strengthen the Union but would also simultaneously reinforce the transatlantic alliance and NATO, which has been and will?stay the cornerstone of European defence architecture.?
At the same time, Europe's immediate neighbourhood is fraught with instability, from the persistent conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Balkans to the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa. These regions are critical to European security (much more than they are to the American one), as instability can lead to spillover effects such as terrorism, uncontrolled migration, and economic disruption. The US now has a real incentive to see Europeans take more responsibility in uniting their foreign policy and defence efforts, but also in policing their own neighbourhood.?
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