The Fifth Industrial Revolution - A Thought Experiment.

Here I am, writing an ill thought out article on something I have been thinking about "on and off" for weeks. "What will be the Fifth Industrial Revolution?" which is probably a weird question when we are on the verge of starting the forth. Ultimately this is a bit of a thought experiment.

When the original industrial revolution comes up in conversation, which is relatively frequent when linked to man made climate change, I often joke that it started in my Great Grandad's back yard.

I come from an area known as the Black Country, where between the 18th century to the 1970's was known for heavy industry. Mordor in Lord of the Rings apparently drew it's inspiration from my home land..........which might give you an idea of how dark and fiery the Black Country was.

The first Industrial Revolution was defined by Iron, Steam, Chemicals and machines which started to replace human labour. Suddenly a small country with small population could achieve the GDP output of a larger, more populated nation, lifting a few out of poverty but creating environmental and social "change".

The second industrial revolution, or the Technological Revolution was phased from the first over a period of 20 or so years. It may sound great to keep an invention and IP's to yourself and not share but it is through mass adoption and standardisation where everyone starts to benefit and we move forward as species. (If you can call Industrial Revolution "moving forward" but this article isn't to discuss the definition of progress.......or is it.....hhhhmmmm). Standardisation brings infrastructure, foundational building blocks, consumption of commodities to allow the building of new things, yay. Rail and electrification bought about from steam production, better materials like Steel to allow the building of larger, more substantial things. (I like Iron as much as the next person but that stuff is brittle). Gasoline, a calorie dense liquid which is produced from black stuff that is pulled out of the ground and can be used to power practical individual transportation devices.

The second industrial revolution not only brought a new type of devastating war which was experienced during the 1st and 2nd world wars, it brought much of the infrastructure and foundations for our current modern lives.

Now I'm not sure these revolutions were named whilst the world was living through them, it can be quite difficult to go "there, there was a point of major change from before". Yet the third industrial revolution has been identified as we live it and we are apparently nearing the end of this era.

The information age, I remember this term from when I was at primary school and it defines the era in which we live now............though apparently someone has renamed it the "digital revolution". (Well we all get excited by switches turning on and off).

Born out of the 2nd World War, this was the move from mechanical and analogue technology and embracing the simplicity of 1's and 0's produced by logic gates. Vacuum tubes and valves were all well and good apart from the fact they weren't; large, power hungry, massive heat generation and a lack of reliability were the "qualities" of these and the humble transistor had luckily overcome. Finally you could pack loads of small logic gates into a small area, relatively power efficient and reliable.

I've really made the information age sound unimportant thus far but it underpins our modern lives. Rapid communication means I don't even have to communicate with someone to get a takeaway, I just order on an app, some abstract process occurs and pizza is delivered. During this era we have seen digital computers take over virtually every facet of life and probably seen the fastest cycles of obsolescence of any industrial revolution but like previous revolutions we are seeing the maturity and commodification of this era's defining technology and like previous revolutions, its indicative of a phase to the next revolution.

Industry 4.0 seems to be the buzz word attributed to the next phase but unlike previous phases (I'm guessing), this one is being defined before it happens. It is highly likely there will be a retrospective redefining of the 4th phase in future but what is currently predicted? Highly flexible mass production, human technology augmentation, greater inter-connectivity, decentralised decision making and likely more besides. Also there is likely to be a shedding of the more polluting aspects of the 1st and 2nd phases, like the burning of fossil juice for generating power.

Like with previous phases, the transition to the 4th phase will see the commodification of the 3rd, providing the building blocks for the 4th and we have been seeing this transition occur over the last decade. The buzz word "Digital Transformation" which we dish out in the business world has been about this transition, ensuring the business will continue to survive into the 4th phase. (Unfortunately many believe its pushing out an app and a website, it is likely businesses like that, unless they trade on nostalgia (Morgan, Teddy Grays, etc) won't exist in 5-10 years, which is pretty rubbish for shareholder value but capitalism has a habit of killing resource sucking zombies which don't add sufficient value. This has occurred in previous transition points).

I could discuss digital transformation, the preparing for and the effects of Industry 4.0 on business, politics and people all day (it's practically the day job) but this article is about the 5th phase.

When are we likely to see the 5th phase? Providing the human race survives the end of the 3rd and through the 4th and there are no massive reversion events, I would guesstimate 2100 which yes, does seem quite far away but I've based this upon the previous length and transitions of industrial revolutions. By this point we will have seen the process of commodification of the innovations of the 4th. Advanced sensors, logic and environmental control will see far more organised and efficient agriculture with reduced levels of waste. General supply and demand will be more real-time but with supply chain redundancies to deal with crisis. Fossil juice probably won't be a fuel but still in use for some lubrication and material purposes. Virtually everything will probably be made from a Graphene like wonder substance because among other super properties, it is easy to squirt out of a 3D printer. The cognitive abilities of typical computer interfaces will allow for fully humanised interaction. People will live in the present more, with real time needs accommodated by flexible manufacturer, sensors monitoring the body allowing for real time diagnostic and alerts for medical care, why bother doing any prep for the future. The average human life span will likely increase to 110 years old with healthy working spans reaching 80+. The birthrates in the west will have dropped and started to drop elsewhere. Wealth overall will have increased but so will the divide between the wealthiest and the poorest. Capitalism probably wen't through a hard phase but ultimately evolves and continues to survive. Data privacy largely becomes obsolete but data ownership is re-enforced. There have been several pandemics but controls are more effective at stopping spreads. Fusion power may be a thing but then it is always 40-50 years away. Architects are still very much in demand as are other professions but labour and most service based jobs have all but in a few unique instances been replaced by automation. The average working week reduces to pre-historic levels of approximately 20 hours a week. (Finally, progress!).

But even though real-time supply chains have allowed for more resource efficiency and global populations have remained relatively static or have fallen, the planet still has approximately 11 billion people. (Though this would have actually dropped from a maximum). The land-mass above the sea has shrunk in the main but large damn projects managed to reclaim some land. The sheer energy requirements of maintaining need, let alone want will be more than the planet can handle even with increased efficiency and production. Although some mining had occurred on external space bodies, like the moon and asteroids by this point, this has been expensive, bespoke and for what were previously seen as rare and expensive metals and minerals, not for things like fresh water. Clothing fashion is still largely based on the 1960's - 1990's but with a modern twist. People are consuming faster than before and are still trying to find conveniences, even though from our perspective they literately do nothing for themselves. Biodiversity isn't what it was 100 years ago and humanity is still not a Type 1 civilisation.

So with all this, what is there to progress and what will happen during the 5th phase? Here are some predictions:

• That which defined the innovation of the 4th phase will have undergone commodification and form the foundation building blocks of this age. (Obviously, it's practically the hallmark of change).
• Machines have gone beyond self repair and self design optimisation, with the commodification of data, sensor and flexible mass industry, machines can predict "wants" and "needs" that are not human defined, tool, produce and arrange logistics accordingly. (Effectively starting to replace humans in every part of the value chain outside consumption and finance).
• Architects and scientists are still very much in demand but other professions like medical doctors, law and potentially politics (at least as we see it now) start to see reduced need. This is a threat to the capitalist model and the requirement of the human race. (Though I like to think my domesticated pets have a good life).
• In the 4th phase, the interface between human and machine was improved to allow humans to "native" communicate intent to a machine. This would be expanded to allow for the scanning, storing and the interpretation/reading of the stored scan of human brains. The memories of a person could be stored, potentially along with the conscious and unconscious. (Which could introduce a new category of consumers).
• Human want satisfied faster than want itself. A strange concept but human life will be all about experiences, though this will lead to social issues similar to a mass and more extreme version of Cyberbalkanization. (After all, if something has been produced and provides better experience than sex or the wanting of children, why procreate, we are starting to see signs of this now). Communication, now more rapid and experienced on a greater level than speech or text today, will allow like minded humans to "hive" over great distances.
• Genetic people production. I'm not proposing cloning here but if humans aren't going out, meeting and having babies how do we restock the human race? (Assuming this is still seen as important). This could involve the artificial creation of humans, using scanned genetic material from the populous, remove any defined defects. (I use the word defined as someones/things will have had to make the choice on what can stay and what is discarded). This could also extend to the pre-programme of the mind, potentially as a mix of other stored human brain patterns.
• By the end of the 5th phase, humanity (or more appropriately humanities tools) would be close to achieving the definition of a Type 1 civilisation.
• The city concept as we know it today will be replaced with large biospheres, an expansion of the "controlled" growing environments used during the 4th phase. The Biospheres where the model of choice when colonising other planets, being so successful that they were rolled out as massive structures on earth.

Yes this is highly speculative and probably not the basis to make future investments on, though it is very likely people who are alive today and functioning in our 3rd phase world will see the start of the 5th phase, as well as experience some of the fastest pace change in human history. For business, preparing for what is to come in the right way is key and architecture can direct this.