Fewer Elves Are Stocking the Shelves
The holiday season is here, and retailers have been preparing for their busiest time of the year. The holiday period not only drives a significant portion of annual revenue, but also serves as a barometer for the broader economic climate, offering insights into consumer confidence, inflation, and labor market dynamics. This year, amid elevated economic uncertainty, understanding retail hiring trends is crucial to forecasting both short-term business strategies and long-term market stability. In this newsletter, we dive into Revelio Labs’ workforce data to explore how holiday retail hiring trends reflect both the resilience of the sector and the broader economic environment. In other words, Revelio Labs’ workforce data will help predict how heavy Santa's sleigh will be this year.
Data on new job postings in the retail sector for September, October, and November reveal a weaker demand for workers leading up to the 2024 holiday season compared to prior years. While retail job postings remain higher than pre-pandemic levels, they have declined each month relative to the same months in recent years. This moderation in hiring signals a shift toward more subdued labor demand, following the post-pandemic hiring surge that defined the past few years.
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Happy Holidays!
Loujaina Abdelwahed, PhD | Senior Economist at Revelio Labs