A Few Thoughts on The Ukraine

"Quantity has a quality all its own." Thomas A. ?Callaghan, Jr. (Attributed to Stalin)

"It?really?shouldn't have taken four of you. . . ." El Dorado (1966, Howard Hawks, Dir,)

"You can conquer Bactria, but you can't hold it." Attributed to Alexander of Macedon

This might be a good time for ambitious world leaders to read (or re-read) @GeneralClark's book Waging Modern War. His Bosnia and Kosovo Campaigns might still be the most successful recent examples.

Russian inability to leverage Reconnaissance Surveillance Target Acquisition ("RSTA") assets and Precision Guided Munitions ("PGM") is surprising given the importance this was given as far back as the 1990 edition of the Soviet Taktika and the reported presence of Russian advisors with Saddam's forces in Iraq during OIF I in 2003.?

The Ukrainians have excelled at Information Operations ("IO") during this war and have outperformed the Russians, This bodes ill for any Russian occupation, as all wars are increasingly "IO Wars."

The Russians have not (apparently) excelled at the use of Special Operations Forces ("SOF") during this war, which is disappointing given their historically adroit use of SOF, such as using SOF to take out Amin in Afghanistan in 1979.

Fires, SOF and IO are all dependent on RSTA. RSTA is dependent on Intel Analysis by trained people (or AI). Russians seem to lack this. Additionally, their apparent lack of Human Intelligence ("HUMINT") resources in their "Near Abroad" is notable.

What happens after a war seems to be more important to ultimate realization of political objectives than victory in war. The quote (attributed to Alexander of Macedon) that "You can conquer Bactria, but you can't hold it" applies.

How the Russians handle any occupation will be informative. They did not excel in Afghanistan after brilliantly deposing the old government in 1979 (much like the US after their military victory there in 2001-'02). How will the Russians proceed if they are able to occupy the country?

The Ukraine had been part of the USSR and, prior to that, the Russian Empire. Does this give the Russian Federation an advantage in bringing The Ukraine back into the fold or does this make it the aftermath of a civil war with the horrors that implies? This issue has obvious implications for the PRC and any forced reunification with Taiwan.

Since it is not clear the Russians will win (or even what their ultimate objective is), it is premature to speak of a Russian occupation. Still, the occupations that have gone best are Kosovo and Bosnia and in Kosovo and Bosnia, there was a quick, decisive victory and a quick (but far from brutal) restoration of order by the occupying powers. I'm not sure any of that applies here.

Reports that the Ukrainian government has released and armed prisoners seems to set the stage for an Iraqi-style insurgency (or destabilizing internal issues if The Ukraine wins).

If the Russians win, they should consult GEN (R) Clark's book and (perhaps) Machiavelli's The Prince for dealing with these issues. The general rule is simple: seek the good will of the people from a position of strength.

The execution is, however, difficult.??

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