A few observations on the rapidly evolving and increasingly dynamical, climate & biosphere.
From the outset, the Paris Agreement, net zero by 2050 objective is a largely meaningless mantra now with the targets of 1.5 or below 2C already moot (think inertia and lag in the system). Global mean temperature exceeded the 1.5 degrees threshold during the first days of June 2023.?Monitoring how often and for how long these breaches occur is more important than ever, if we are to avoid more severe consequences of the climate crisis. Read more here: https://climate.copernicus.eu/tracking-breaches-150c-global-warming-threshold?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=socialmedia&utm_campaign=globalwarminglimit-june23
In 2019, the additional heat forcing in system earth from GHG’s (of which >90% has been absorbed by the oceans as additional heat content OHC or enthalpy) equated to an estimated 5x Hiroshima bombs for every second of that year. 2020 marked another increase and now, 2021 has increased even more to equate, roughly to 7 Hiroshima bombs per second for the entire year. James Hansen et al now equate earth's heat forcing to the equivalent of around 800 000 Hiroshima bombs a day or about 9/second.
The 'world ocean', in 2021, was the hottest ever recorded by humans, and the 2021 annual OHC value is even higher than the previous year’s record value by 14 ± 11 ZJ (1 zetta J = 10x21 J) using the IAP/CAS dataset and by 16 ± 10 ZJ using NCEI/NOAA dataset. Cumulative OHC in 2021 above a 1981-2010 baseline is now around 230 zeta joules. 1995 was a key tipping point for ocean heat content.
Oceanographer Jim Massa has done some good videos in the last year on ocean?heat content and earths energy imbalance here:
More importantly, see the latest research papers from James Hansen (who first testified to US?Congress in the 1980's alongside Carl Sagan leading to the creation of the IPCC). Where is our planet headed? Equilibrium warming vs committed warming. Brief discussion at Pipeline paper (draft): https://mailchi.mp/caa/equilibrium-warming-committed-warming
Equilibrium global warming including slow feedbacks for today’s human-made greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing (4.1 W/m2) is 10°C, reduced to 8°C by today’s aerosols.
Present greenhouse gas forcing is 70% of the forcing that made Earth’s temperature in the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum at least +13°C relative to preindustrial temperature.
Climate sensitivity and currently observable?responses:
Rapid cryosphere response and implications for volcanic and seismic activity, i.e. Isostatic or post-glacial rebound.
Antarctic Ice Sheet: Average rate of change (negative reduction) in the ice mass balance = 147 billion metric tons per year since 2002
Greenland Ice Sheet: Average rate of change (negative reduction) in the ice mass balance = 271 billion metric tons per year since 2002
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/1077/2022/?'Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks' - 22 Jul 2022
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Changes in ice load lead to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), a decrease in ice load initiates an uplift with characteristic timescales of hundreds to thousand of years (Barletta et al., 2018; Whitehouse et al., 2019). Currently observed post-glacial uplift rates in Greenland range between ?5.6 and 18 mm yr?1 (Adhikari et al., 2021; Wahr et al., 2001; Dietrich et al., 2005; Schumacher et al., 2018; Khan et al., 2008). Some studies suggest that uplift rates are higher in the southeast, where the Iceland hotspot has possibly passed, which can be associated with locally low viscosities in the upper mantle (Khan et al., 2016).
The viscous bedrock response is generally assumed to be slow compared to ice losses, with characteristic response timescales of tens to hundreds of millennia. However, several studies suggest that the viscosity of the asthenosphere and the upper mantle varies spatially and could be locally lower than previously thought (e.g., in Iceland, Patagonia, the Antarctic peninsula, Alaska). This implies that the timescale of the viscous response to changes in ice load might be much shorter, e.g., close to tens or hundreds of years (Whitehouse et al., 2019). The elastic response component responds on an even faster timescale to changes in ice load; e.g., the 2012 extreme melt event caused a significant peak in GPS-measured uplift rates (Adhikari et al., 2017). A model of the solid Earth can help to interpret the GPS measurements in order to distinguish the elastic uplift caused by recent mass losses from the delayed viscous uplift caused by the retreat of ice since the last glacial maximum and deduce solid-Earth parameters like mantle viscosity and lithosphere thickness (Adhikari et al., 2021; Schumacher et al., 2018).
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-08068-y?'Solid Earth change and the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet': Published: 30 January 2019
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The pre-glacial topography of the Antarctic continent determined the location and style of glacial inception ~34 Ma ago1, whereas today the shape of the bed and the properties of the ice-bed interface exert a first-order control on the contemporary pattern of ice flow2. In the intervening period the bed of the AIS has been continuously reshaped by erosion and sedimentation, periodically flexed by glacial isostasy, and abruptly altered by tectonic and volcanic activity, with the latter two processes also playing a role in determining the thermal conditions at the bed (Fig. 1).?
Parts of Antarctica are underlain by active volcanoes, notably West Antarctica (Fig. 1). This is of interest because in other regions, e.g., Iceland, volcanism has been shown to increase during periods of deglaciation.
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Other impacts will include increased seismic and volcanic activity for the region as the weight of the cryosphere is released from the crust. Bill McGuire of University College London gave a lecture here in December 2016 titled 'Waking the Giant: how a changing climate triggers earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis'. Min 12:20 is showing post glacial uplift of the crust could be some 200-300m?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ca8q4QSutFQ&list=LL&index=18
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2001GC000282?'The link between volcanism and deglaciation in Iceland' - November 2002
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Recent eruptions from the Krafla system have similar compositions to subglacial eruptions. The high eruption rates and low rare earth element (REE) concentrations in the lava from early postglacial times can be accounted for by increased melt generation rates in the shallow mantle caused by unloading of an ice sheet. Magma chamber processes such as crystallization and assimilation can produce the temporal variation in REE contents if garnet is present.
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Icelandic Meteorological office: Earthquakes during the last 48 hours. at 03 Jul 12:40 GMT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlXr2DdpTS4?'Big News - The Unrest in Katla Volcano / 500 Earthquakes Near Reykjavik' - Jul 2, 2023?ICELAND
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500 earthquakes have been detected near Reykjavík during the past 24 hrs and Katla volcano keeps on with her old tricks, keeping many of us awake although things look a bit better now. It would be a separate disaster on top of a natural disaster to experience a summer eruption in Katla so it's best to be aware of how huge this system really is.
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Things have really been moving since around 2018.
Three Earthquakes Over M4 at Katla Volcano
August 2022: A strong burst of nearly 4000 earthquakes occurs in Iceland, causing an increased risk of a new volcanic eruption as we head into August
September 2021:?Volcano Watch: After an earthquake swarm, a large explosive volcano in Iceland is now on a raised alert level, with a high eruption risk
The Reykjanes Peninsula in Southwest Iceland is experiencing a seismic crisis, with more than 37,000 earthquakes recorded since 24 February 2021, some reaching above magnitude 5.0.
April 15 2020: Current data show that more than 8,000 seismic shocks have occurred in the region in a short time period and the ground has been uplifted by around 10 centimeters as a result of magma intrusion, revealing that volcanoes are probably awakening.
September 2018:?Iceland's second deadliest volcano stirs: A sharp earthquake swarm detected in ?r?faj?kull
Additional amplification already baked in:
Summer atmospheric circulation over Greenland in response to Arctic amplification and diminished spring snow cover - by Jonathon Preece et al. Published: 23 June 2023 . https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39466-6
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The exceptional atmospheric conditions that have accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss in recent decades have been repeatedly recognized as a possible dynamical response to Arctic amplification. Here, we present evidence of two potentially synergistic mechanisms linking high-latitude warming to the observed increase in Greenland blocking. Consistent with a prominent hypothesis associating Arctic amplification and persistent weather extremes, we show that the summer atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic has become wavier and link this wavier flow to more prevalent Greenland blocking. While a concomitant decline in terrestrial snow cover has likely contributed to this mechanism by further amplifying warming at high latitudes, we also show that there is a direct stationary Rossby wave response to low spring North American snow cover that enforces an anomalous anticyclone over Greenland, thus helping to anchor the ridge over Greenland in this wavier atmospheric state.
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This is particularly worrisome when considering the wrap up of the 2022 Greenland ice sheet melt season (during which average temperature anomalies were 8 degrees C above the baseline) by GIS expert, Professor Jason Box (see below reference), in which he states that the most important factor leading to excess melting is atmospheric rivers and tropical heat being delivered to the ice sheet. This being the result of a wavy Jet Stream (Rossby wave formation) described in the above Nature Communications paper.
- Sunshine -
Light raker
Earth baker
Land taker
Volcano waker
Soil shaker
Quake maker
Wave breaker
No faker
For marine ecosystems, the pace of change is exceeding life's ability to adapt. As a result, an awful lot of imbalance exists out there now due to anthropogenic forcing of ocean chemistry and physics. Complex food/life webs are unraveling:
领英推荐
False solutions:
There has?yet to be promotion by the likes of WEF, IPCC and other large NGOs of the MEERs framework initiative by Dr Ye Tao of the Rowland Institute (Harvard University USA). https://www.meer.org/
Simply put, direct carbon capture (DAC) and carbon capture/storage (CCS) is a viable option, BUT… it needs a longer runway given the lag in the system and thermal runaway (climate inertia) now primarily from CH4 release from permafrost and other natural sources (wetlands, small lakes etc). By IPCC own projections, CH4 has contributed to about half of postindustrial anthropogenic warming and is now the largest driver of current warming. Given the inertia and lag in the system associated with CO2 emissions (about 10-15 years), scalable and entropically efficient solutions are a must, especially if the aerosol emissions?reductions associated with a transition away from primarily?coal and oil continues. For a more detailed discussion on the hidden danger of the aerosol masking effect or global dimming, see below.?
Assuming we can get past the immediacy of the heat crisis with rapid at scale deployment of the MEERs framework (safest, quickest to deploy at scale and most effective method of solar radiation management SRM), DACC / CCS should prove to be a promising solution for longer term rebalancing of our biospheres chemistry, should technically/entropically efficient improvements be achievable.?
Preservation and effective management of existing fresh water (FW) sources is obvious low hanging fruit. Tactical deployment of the MEER framework under the guidance of Dr Ye Tao of the Rowland Institute (Harvard) over reservoirs, lakes and other FW sources now exposed to increased evaporation rates associated with anthropogenic climate forcing would get 2 birds with 1 stone (i.e. not plastic balls or solar panels which are themselves a heat sink with poor albedo). This tech is also essential for rebalancing earths’ energy input, particularly as industrial activities go increasingly green and the AME/global dimming effect is lost (currently staving off about 2C per James Hansen latest analysis). Here is a recent talk on MEERs although there is plenty more available online now. https://youtu.be/vw85K7MjwYk
Without appropriate countermeasures such as the MEERs framework to counteract the reduced aerosol?masking effect (AME) from increased use of nuclear, wind, solar and cleaner fuels with particle filtration/capture devices, the heat immediacy of the heat crisis will not be overcome.?Again, also think scale and practicality. Where and how will >trillion tons mass of CO2 be placed, even if viably drawn down from the troposphere?
The corporate capture ought to be considered when assessing DAC/CCS so-called ‘techno-fixes’ currently promoted (again without forethought to the net consequences for the climate/biosphere).
Here’s some recent reviews on the topic. Effectively removing CO2 from the atmosphere https://www.psi.ch/en/media/our-research/effectively-removing-co2-from-the-atmosphere
Life Cycle Assessment of Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage with Low-Carbon Energy Sources - by Tom Terlouw et al. https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.1c03263
Interesting piece here on the ‘Orca’ project in Iceland and DAC/CCS tech generally.This is all fine and dandy until you take a step back for a more holistic approach to situational awareness. Unfortunately, seismic and volcanic activity is increasing in this region (I noticed major upticks from 2018 onwards in the high north, PNW generally). This makes sense when you consider the underlying tectonics and associated post-glacial uplift (isostatic rebound). Estimated to be around a 300 meter potential uplift resulting from the melting of the GIS cryosphere.
Life Cycles of DAC/CCS https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.1c03263
CH4 feedbacks, now active, still represent a critical research area to fund as solutions for future viability of Earth's biosphere. Particularly now given current climate forcing metrics. See for instance the latest update: Global warming in the pipeline - by James Hansen et al…
New Report Assesses the Feasibility, Cost, and Potential Impacts of Ocean-Based Carbon Dioxide Removal Approaches; Recommends U.S. Research Program https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2021/12/new-report-assesses-the-feasibility-cost-and-potential-impacts-of-ocean-based-carbon-dioxide-removal-approaches-recommends-u-s-research-program
A Research Strategy for Ocean-based Carbon Dioxide Removal and Sequestration https://www.nap.edu/catalog/26278/a-research-strategy-for-ocean-based-carbon-dioxide-removal-and-sequestration
Methane Removal: Stanford-led research reveals potential of an overlooked climate change solution https://woods.stanford.edu/news/methane-removal-stanford-led-research-reveals-potential-overlooked-climate-change-solution
Atmospheric methane removal: a research agenda - by Robert Jackson et al. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2020.0454
UMBC’s Glenn Wolfe develops new method to gauge atmosphere’s ability to clear methane, a potent greenhouse gas https://news.umbc.edu/umbcs-glenn-wolfe-develops-new-method-to-gauge-atmospheres-ability-to-clear-methane-a-potent-greenhouse-gas
Mapping hydroxyl variability throughout the global remote troposphere via synthesis of airborne and satellite formaldehyde observations - by Glenn Wolfe https://www.pnas.org/content/116/23/11171
Another Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) Project Doesn’t Live Up To Its Targets…
Round up of recent developments in and around the Arctic cryosphere, GIS.
Melt rates in the kilometer-size grounding zone of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, before and during a retreat: May 8, 2023?https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2220924120
Changes in the annual sea ice freeze–thaw cycle in the Arctic Ocean from 2001 to 2018:?05 Dec 2022?https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/4779/2022/
Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models: 27 Jul 2022??ttps://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abn9755
Tropical heat and moisture to Greenland and the European State of the Climate - economic impacts -?Jason Box May 2023:?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzpBo3y0xs4&list=LL&index=58&t=647s
Greenland Ice Sheet Ice Loss Accelerating with Numerous Amplifying Feedbacks Towards Tipping Points - April 2023:?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYY0eJt6Ano&list=LL&index=71
Prof. Jason Box - Zombie Ice and unforeseen sea level rise - December 2022:?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrdMOFXuXlc
Rapidly thinning Northeast Greenland ice sheet could add more to sea-level rise than thought -?9-NOV-2022:?https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/970283
Extensive inland thinning and speed-up of Northeast Greenland Ice Stream -?Published: 09 November 2022:?https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05301-z
The hidden danger of the Aerosol Masking Effect (AME) or Global Dimming
Finding the invisible traces of shipping in marine clouds https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-03026-7
Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol - by Peter Manhausen et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05122-0
Video by Paul Beckwith - OOPS. Global Dimming is Worse than we thought.?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=salhSetJsYs
Invisible Ship Tracks as Opportunistic Experiments for Aerosol Cloud Interactions - by Peter Manshausen et al. https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2022EGUGA..24.4188M/abstract
Significant underestimation of radiative forcing by aerosol–cloud interactions derived from satellite-based methods - by Hailing Jia et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23888-1
Increased atmospheric dust is masking greenhouse gases’ warming effect?https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/atmospheric-dust-masking-greenhouse-gases-warming-effect
Mineral dust aerosol impacts on global climate and climate change - by Jasper Kok et al.?https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00379-5
International study: improved air quality accelerates global warming in recent decades https://www.uni-leipzig.de/en/newsdetail/artikel/international-study-improved-air-quality-accelerates-global-warming-in-recent-decades-2022-09-21
Robust evidence for reversal of the trend in aerosol effective climate forcing - by Johannes Quaas et al. https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/12221/2022
Large parts of Europe are warming twice as fast as the planet on average https://www.su.se/english/news/large-parts-of-europe-are-warming-twice-as-fast-as-the-planet-on-average-1.636252
Unmasking the Effects of Aerosols on Greenhouse Warming Over Europe - by Paul Glantz et al. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021JD035889
Aerosols must be included in climate risk assessments
Estimates of impending risk ignore a big player in regional change and climate extremes. - by Geeta Persaad et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-03763-9
Scattering and absorbing aerosols in the climate system - by Ling Li et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00296-7
The aerosol masking effect (AME) is somewhat counter-intuitive, so deserves a little more explanation. AME is now estimated to be shielding Earth from up to 2 degree C?+ of additional warming that would hit after a few days/week if we instantly stopped blowing dirty particles up into the atmosphere and went 100% green.
Cessation of industrial activity from around Feb/March 2020 as a result of the Corona Virus caused a spike in temperatures as particles (primarily Sulphur and black carbon) fell out of the atmosphere. After 9/11 in the US when planes were grounded another temperature spike was recorded. Also recent research has been published (2019) on regional AME during the height of the Roman Empire from large scale deforestation and wood burning. France shuttering coal plants in 2003 was thought to have eventuated the heatwave that swiftly followed, ironically hitting new nuclear plant efficiency and resulting in many deaths from heat stroke. Think also about the 1970's (before large scale nuclear) when temps were being held back generally by lack of air pollution regulation and high emphasis on burning dirty coal through simple smoke stacks. The science is well understood now and abundantly clear with corroborating peer reviewed Journals a plenty. See for instance: Clim. Change 138 2016, Chem. Phys 18 2018, Snyder C.W. Climate Change 2019. All in, 21 papers published 17x after 2000 which Dr Ye Tao collated and explained during one of his MEERs presentations (see below).
Fires, like volcanic eruptions (explosive not effusive) create a cooling effect as increased atmospheric particles stop solar irradiation from initially entering the atmosphere and bounce it back to space. Because they scatter and absorb incoming sunlight, aerosol particles exert a cooling effect on the Earth's surface. The Pinatubo eruption increased aerosol optical depth in the stratosphere by a factor of 10 to 100 times normal levels measured prior to the eruption https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/1510/global-effects-of-mount-pinatubo#:~:text=Because%20they%20scatter%20and%20absorb,measured%20prior%20to%20the%20eruption. / https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=189410
See also this deep dive from none other than James Hanson Oct 2020. Record September warmth puts 2020 in virtual dead heat with 2016 for hottest year. September 2020 Global Temperature Update: https://mailchi.mp/1be3cfde7f67/september-2020-global-temperature-update Accelerated warming of the past 5 years requires explanation. It implies reduction of atmospheric aerosols [https://mailchi.mp/caa/accelerated-global-warming]
We are in such a bind now, that if we suddenly switch off industrial pollution, by switching to clean alternatives (low sulphur fuels, oil gas etc), the loss of the aerosol masking effect will eventuate global warming equal to about the last 50yrs worth of industrial activity, but within a week or 2. That means most plants don’t likely survive, at least the ones that sustain the current settled living arrangements. C3 pathway crops are already switching from photosynthesis/transpiration to respiration as heat tolerance thresholds continue to be breached (i.e consuming O2 and producing CO2). See Jim Massa who goes through the paper on this (apparently about 10% of C3 crops are already affected). https://youtu.be/eRJSBrB9Dws
See Dr Ye Tao of Harvard University, Rowland Institute for a more detailed explanation from min 27 - 30 ish onwards https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwvPJnPP9KI&t=1785s?Also see this summary presentation from Dr Ye Tao at COP26 on the MEERS framework. If you fwd to around 8: min (although worth watching all 16 mins) you can see how problematic DAC is from an energy/heat production/environmental degradation perspective. It may be something viable down the road, i.e. once we are out of the current heat crisis, but right now it’s a dangerous distraction being abused by current big oil & gas as a technology transfer and offset mechanism.https://youtu.be/adZhB8jwKsY?Longer presentations on MEERS here:?https://youtu.be/fwvPJnPP9KI?/??https://youtu.be/3cLx9dbFpKg
Peter Wadhams (who also supports marine cloud brightening) & Paul Beckwith also presenting at COP26 in support of MEERS:?https://youtu.be/Cwc276s9FgI??/?https://youtu.be/IubZzo97p-A
“Global Dimming from industrial and transportation aerosols is likely between 0.25C and 1.1C with a best estimate of 0.5C. As global industry/transportation shutters due to our coronavirus actions, the sky clears due to reduced pollution, unmasking global dimming. My educated best guess on the size of the direct effect warming pulse is 0.25C globally if half of industry shuts down, realized as a 0.5C warning over land and 0.125C warming over the oceans. Maybe double these numbers with indirect effects from cloud changes. Also, the daily temperature range will increase, specifically due to the shutdown of the airline industry.” https://youtu.be/CWytNgQyyNMhttps://www.scientistswarning.org/2020/06/04/dimming-dilemma/
The impact of AME is still a moveable feast,?but like most areas of research around climate change, there is consistent underestimation. There are still plenty of additional coal plants coming online and other sources of particulate pollution (in lockstep with current global population increase of around 80 million/annum) making it into the upper atmosphere. China does not expect to arrive at peak?emissions?until 2030.
Either way, given the lack of margins or buffering in the system now, reducing the AME by?a rapid switch to clean/green energy without appropriate countermeasures being deployed (such as the MEERs program https://www.meerreflection.com) is likely a really bad idea.
Here is some more recent research on AME published in Nature Communications June 2021, showing a massive underestimation of the current cooling impact (likely >1c now IMO):?https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23888-1 "Satellite-based estimates of radiative forcing by aerosol–cloud interactions (RFaci) are consistently smaller than those from global models, hampering accurate projections of future climate change. By accounting for the sampling biases, the magnitude of RFaci (from ?0.38 to ?0.59 W m?2) increases by 55 % globally (133 % over land and 33 % over ocean)."
As mentioned above, James Hansen et al latest research now factors in 2 degrees C for AME when assessing equilibrium global warming of 10°C, reduced to 8°C by today’s aerosols.