Few and Fewer

Crop weather issues remain few.? And fewer still are immediate or large.

AUSTRALIA: Australia’s dry winter crop regions are still not a cause for concern.

WORLD:? The world has few immediate crop issues that might influence prices for now.? Some latent issues remain.? Brazil’s summer crops remain at risk.? And the US summer has a hotter drier bias.? The two will take time to become influential.?

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AUSTRALIA:? No, we’re not there yet

Australia’s winter crop regions are likely to remain dry for the next week or so.?

• NSW crop regions are likely to get some useful rain this week.
• That NSW rain though is only a ‘down payment’ on planting rain.?
• Crop regions elsewhere are likely to get little rain.
• There remains plenty of time for rain ahead of planting in winter crop regions.?
• A likely transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions through mid-2024. will influence the weather in Australia's south and east.
• The speed of that transition is important for winter crop regions.
• El Nino quickly dissolving improves planting rainfall prospects to some degree.?
• There is though the usual uncertainty about planting rainfall prospects.?
• Weather forecasters have become somewhat more confident a La Nina event will evolve.?
• A La Nina may boost winter and spring rainfall in Australia’s eastern and southern crop regions.?

We suspect now is little early for Australia’s weather to have much impact on local prices.?

WORLD: Nothing but nascent

South America’s summer crops are largely fine for now.? Northern winter crops face few weather challenges.? Northern summer crops are entering market thinking.?

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Southern summer crops

Central Brazil’s crops likely get another week or so of good crop weather.

• Harvesting is unlikely to be widely interrupted by rain.
• Safrinha corn and cotton crops remain at risk because they need more moisture ahead of the April rainfall shut-off.
• So, late March rainfall forecasts take on greater significance.
• Weather forecasters expect most of these crop regions to get enough rain over the next week or so.
• Likely high temperatures though mean that outlook can still take an uncomfortable turn.
• Regions on the Mato Grosso/Mato Grosso do Sol border are an exception given likely rain and heat.???
• We have placed those regions on ‘watch’.?

Argentina’s crop regions are now on a better moisture track. ?

• Rainfall last week in southern Cordoba, and surrounds in La Pampa and San Luis, was surprisingly good.?
• Weather forecasters expect enough rain in most crop regions.?
• So, we have taken those regions off ‘watch’.? ??

The risk of weather worries in South America has eased a notch – for now. Brazil’s centre-west remains a risk.? The modest region on watch though is unlikely to be enough to lift prices much.? That outlook might evolve during the week.? And especially as weather forecasts for March’s final fortnight become clearer.?

Northern winter crops

Some US winter crops on the southern and central plains remain on watch.?

• A large chunk of the United States’ hard red winter (HRW) wheat regions remains on ‘watch’.?
• The ‘watch’ areas did not worsen over the past week.
• Forecasters though do not expect enough rain to improve the region’s soil moisture.?
• Temperatures though are likely to be somewhat cool this week so the lack of moisture is not yet critical.?

Russia’s winter crops are unlikely to develop any weather issues over the next week or so.?

Ukraine’s winter crops are also unlikely to develop any weather issues this week.?

Most of Europe’s winter crops will likely continue sitting in moist or better soils.?

• Central Romania had been an exception – but no longer.
• Rainfall there last week lifted soil moisture more than expected.
• And forecasters expect more moisture this week to allay any worries for now.? ???
• So, we have removed the region from ‘watch’.

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The market has little to focus on weather-wise for now.? The potential worries in US HRW wheat regions are likely not enough to impact prices.?

Northern summer crops

Northern summer crop weather is starting to exercise market minds.?

Most of the major regions for these crops do not have any obvious bias to their season weather forecasts.

The United States is still an exception.

• So we leave the following discussion unchanged from last week.?
• One, soil moisture is already a little on the low side in the western Midwest and Central Plains.
• Two, World Weather Inc (and perhaps others) think the US spring and summer has a hotter, drier bias because of the lunar cycles state.?
• Third, La Nina events often mean lower rainfall in US summer crop regions.
• Fourth, rapid El Nino to La Nina transitions reinforce that drier bias.
• Finally, some forecasters think there may be lingering impacts from the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption in 2022.?
• All these factors only suggest biases rather than particular outcomes.?
• So, there is no easy translation into crop forecasts.?
• Still, such a long list is hard for growers, analysts, and traders to ignore.?
• At the least it cautions many from against large crop forecasts.

Translating these US biases into price implications is not simple.? We suspect that, on their own, the biases will have little immediate impact on prices.?