Feledy Weekly - a look behind the curtains

This week I take stock of events behind the Russian front: how is life in the occupied territories, how the old Soviet spying-on-each-other reflexes have been awaken, and finally a very curious aspect of the Russian spies' travel inside Europe: why do we let them roaming free across Schengen-borders?

???? Москва calling. The Russian president is preparing for the election in March 2024. Evidently, the outcome is not in jeopardy, yet the symbolic steps leading to victory are important. In this spirit, despite the state of emergency, voting by brand new Russian citizens will be possible in the four Russian-occupied and illegally annexed Ukrainian regions.

• Swamped with snitches. Old Soviet reflexes have been triggered since the beginning of the war by the encouragement of Russian citizens to report if they hear overly critical voices about the "military operation" or Putin’s leadership. As a result, law enforcement is flooded with informants who work diligently, whether they are driven by unwavering commitment or simply a desire to get rid of their neighbor, business partner, or former lover.
• Flush with cash. Meanwhile, the Russian budget seems to be filling up again since October, crucial for Putin's welfare (election-)spending before March. While NATO countries strive to prevent revenue from the oil and gas sector in Russia, it appears that companies from G7 countries are very much involved in the operation of the "gray fleet", which is transporting illegal shipments that are above the price cap. According to Bloomberg, in October, the monthly revenue of the Russian state budget was higher than in any month of 2021. It's no wonder that Western countries are now working on pressuring the maritime shipping sector.

???? Occupied and oppressed. The territories annexed by Russia – four Eastern Ukrainian regions – may still have a population of several million people, despite many of them fleeing or being deported. Life goes on in its own way, accompanied by a harsh Russian military presence and collaboration. EBU Investigative Journalism Network wrote a sad summary. To list some facts:

• It is mandatory for everyone in these regions to acquire Russian citizenship by summer 2024; those who don't may face deportation, with their children ending up in orphanages.
• Even now, access to healthcare, education, and pensions is dependent on having a Russian passport. During the breach of the Kahovka reservoir, for example, Russian units only assisted people waiting on rooftops for rescue if they had Russian passports.
• Families of Ukrainian soldiers, former Ukrainian intellectuals, and journalists are specifically targeted for attacks; they can be taken from the streets, held indefinitely, and the UN has confirmed in a recent report that Russian forces use torture systematically.
• For the children of the occupied territories joining a militia is practically compulsory; the 18-year-old age group is invited to Russian military schools. Re-education is drastic, new textbooks are being printed, and the use of the Ukrainian language is prohibited. To put this into perspective, there are 1250 schools in the occupied territories.
• Real estate trade is permitted for Russian citizens, and the properties and houses of the escaped Ukrainians are often demolished, sold, or bought, as if they would never return. The reconstruction of the bombed theater building in Mariupol (where the local population sought refuge, making it one of the bloodiest episodes of the city's siege when it was bombed) has become a prestige project for Moscow.

???? Chinese involvement. The Washington Post exclusive material explains how Beijing and Moscow considers to build a tunnel under the Kerch strait. As the 11-mile strait’s bridge is the major logistical supply line for the Russian-annexed Crimea, it is critical for Moscow to increase the security of supply, given how Ukraine has already carried out two successful attacks on the bridge and most probably plans further, perhaps with sea drones (and not only rockets..).?

???? Anti-graft efforts in Ukraine

• Ukraine’s Senior Cybersecurity Officials Sacked amid Graft Probe (occrp.org)
• Zelenskyy sacks Ukraine’s military medical chief, urges reform of system | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera
• Ukraine unveils corruption probes into reconstruction schemes (msn.com)

???? Limiting free travel for Russian officials inside the EU. Finally, one of my favourite investigative outlet from Central Europe, VSqaure again published in its weekly newsletter a short brief on Russian spies in the heart of Europe: Why Russian intel officers can travel easily across Schengen borders??

“A new Czech proposal for the EU’s 12th sanctions package would restrict the free travel of Russian diplomats within the EU’s borderless zone. As the Financial Times’ newsletter first reported, the concern is that while more than 70 Russian diplomats (mostly undercover intelligence officers) were expelled from Prague, those posted at UN institutions in Vienna could still easily travel and operate in Czech territory. But that’s not the only country at risk. “After we expelled 35 Russian diplomats from Bratislava, which had a huge impact on their intelligence networks, they started operating in Slovakia from other countries. I can tell that one of those is Austria,” a Slovak government official with direct knowledge of the situation told me recently. However, the new Slovak government, led by Robert Fico and supported by the Slovak National Party—which is even more pro-Kremlin than Fico’s SMER—is very unlikely to get tough on Russian diplomats. On the other hand, for Slovak national security agencies, it will be crucial to prove to EU/NATO partners that they are still reliable allies, regardless of the new political leadership. “We are smaller than Austria and Hungary, more vulnerable, so we have to rely more on our international partners on intelligence sharing,” the Slovak official added.”

Just as a reminder: the agents under official cover - embassy jobs tipically - represent only a fragment of Russian intelligence assets, as other agents without official cover, integrated into the host societies, might be far more dangerous.