Federal Election 2022: It's up to Mr. Singh

This past weekend we witnessed a resounding first ballot victory by Pierre Poilievre dispelling the already fleeting whispers of disunity in the Conservative Party of Canada. Mr. Poilievre, as clearly evidenced by his "energizer bunny" campaign and gracious victory speech seems to have the stuff that could very well deliver a CPC majority in a federal election. As much as I admit my bias in favour of the CPC and Mr. Poilievre's leadership and policy agenda I get the sense that the country has turned against Justin Trudeau and his government. If the CPC can attract some strategic star candidates and show Canadians in simple terms that they are the right party to govern that a political tsunami which would sweep Justin and his Trustfundians into the political dustbin is indeed possible.

Mr. Trudeau may wish to call or trigger an election sooner than later as he may read the political tea leaves and see that his own popularity is in a tailspin, and he is loosing key blocks of this electoral support to Mr. Poilievre, namely millennials, soccer moms (the suburban vote) and new Canadians. The Liberal grandees might consider a leadership campaign of their own, but the seasoned party brass probably all realize that the Trudeau government has long past its best before date and sacrificing Freeland or Carney to a political wave isn't in their future interest. If that is the case they are likely to try to hold on to power until the last possible moment (and likely pillage the palace and engage in an orgy of patronage before they are kicked out).

It is therefore up to the political calculations, such as they are, of NDP leader Jagmeet Singh. Mr. Singh seems to do better on campaign than on the benches of the House of Commons, but that said it is highly unlikely that his leadership, characterized by bespoke suits, extoling the virtues of professional victimhood and strategic tears (sorry Jagmeet, Justin cries better) has built any new support for the NDP, or increased donations to party coffers. Mr. Singh, however may see an early opportunity to exit is ill-conceived pact with Justin and bring about a vote of non-confidence that the Liberals surely would lose.

If Mr. Singh sees a further erosion in Liberal support in ridings that the NDP once held (remember they have lost a good number of seats to the Liberals) or the potential for Mr. Singh to take up the banner of apologizer in Chief, so fervently held by Mr. Trudeau, he may well decide to take that political step. If the election becomes a rout, no doubt he would increase his seat total and hold off the inevitable "assessment" of his own leadership.

The sands of the political hour glass are clearly running out on Justin Trudeau, and no manner of Liberal scumbaggery and subterfuge will change that. Mr. Singh now truly has some sway on the inexorable flow of sand. He as this conservative must admit, and given how odious this current government is, now has the national interest in his hands. I hope he acts accordingly.