A Fed Pause & Tame CPI Propels Market Higher; Hydrogen Gains Momentum; Home Depot & Brinker Insights
A Fed pause seems to be good news for the market, albeit maybe not so great news for the US$ (which is supported by a relatively high interest rate). In any case, this rally could be premature for those willing to accept that Powell is leaving further rate hikes on the table for 2H23. This is especially notable given May’s advanced retail sales (recently released) which looked pretty strong as consumers are eagerly spending their gas money savings elsewhere.??
Weekly Dashboards
CPI Commentary
While May’s CPI number looks tame, there are a lot of moving parts, and it is difficult to get an accurate read on a sustainable trend because of significant month-to-month volatility.
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This Week's 15-Second Research Posts
At a time when Ireland is planning to kill their cows to save the environment, Toyota has a plant in California that can convert cow manure into hydrogen used to power vehicles.
Let’s follow Toyota’s lead & redirect our efforts to pursue hydrogen cell vehicles that do not require fossil fuels like both combustion engines & EVs.
Way back in the day, some used a rule of thumb that the cost of your house should approximate 2.5x your annual income. Also, it wasn’t unusual for new homeowners to make 50% downpayments & to eventually throw mortgage note-burning parties after paying off their residences…?
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Home Depot’s special report highlights why a material shortage in the housing stock is good news for its own long-term growth prospects.
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The most important thing Chili’s can do is make sure that it provides a great experience because, in recessionary times, customers can’t afford for things to fail, whether they’re consumer goods or restaurant visits.
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2 analysts recently lowered their price targets for CASY shares, reflecting FY24 inside comp guidance which is significantly lower than FY23 results. In any case, management reports that the consumer is currently doing well & Casey’s financial performance remains solid.?
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The chain is well positioned to capture consumers trading down from more expensive vacations to “staycations” that include a trip to Dave & Buster’s.
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Access to extensive consumer personal & financial data empowers PayPal’s ability to: (1) utilize AI checkout to facilitate one-click buying across the industry; and (2) pre-approve 100MM+ users without the need to pull any credit bureau information. Pro tip: make sure to keep on good terms with your friendly AI banker!
Abbreviated Concept Report
While Domino’s is well positioned with a 40% domestic system sales share among the top 4 players, the material momentum it developed as the unofficial food of covid is currently on hold as the chain waits for a recovery of its core lower-income demo.
Abbreviated Concept Report
The QSR average promotional price point rose for the 2nd consecutive month in May to $5.20 (just below the LTM high) while the promotional value mix declined for the 4th consecutive month to 47.8% (versus the 52.8% LTM high).
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