February 7, 2024
Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting
Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting is an international aviation consulting firm specializing in Air Service Development
Dear Friends, Clients & Colleagues – happy new year, and Happy Chinese New Year
It’s been a busy break down under with summer holidays and travel being a large part of life. Across the travel ecosystem, industry has noted records starting to tumble, as peak periods pass and continue long-established trends, that continued to climb upwards until 2020 - resume once more. However, not everywhere. Supply chain issues in some industries continue and peaks in performance achieved through the pandemic – airfreight yields come to mind – remaining challenging, although more recently turned a corner from a global measure more recently to be positive in late 2023.
As we look forward into 2024, we’ve taken soundings from various internal & external stakeholders and asked what does 2024 hold, in respect to aviation and the industry more generally. It’s a forward perspective of the year ahead, and beyond, useful perhaps for budget forecasting or consideration for what the industry could see (or not!). In no particular order...
? Vistara & Air India merge... before consolidating in the later part of the decade with SIA;
? Southeast Asian carriers with narrow-body aircraft & the new technology capable of flying further than before will continue to tap Australia’s hubs and larger regional centres, reaching into more destinations than ever before (and that applies anywhere really – longer the better!);
? Etihad joins SkyTeam;
? Virgin Australia lifts its growth profile in future forecasts, by pointing its MAX aircraft beyond its borders, to more international destinations (as CNS-HND has proven itself) – but not New Zealand... then lists on the ASX!
? Boeing announces a new aircraft to replace the 737/757/767;
? Australian regional carrier, REX merges with another carrier;
? Air New Zealand and Virgin Australia receive approval to be best buddies once again – then what? Closer again with VA listing?;
? The U.S. and China will continue to build bilateral frequencies back slowly;
? Significant rationalisation in NZ-US capacity (as well as US-AU market);
? Qantas announces a stronger partnership with Air France-KLM;
? One airline in Canada will no longer be with us by the end of 2024;
? Air India forms a strategic partnership with a US airline;
? Travis Kelce elected President of the USA as a write-in candidate, running under the slogan of “I've got a blank space, baby and I'll write your name” ??;
? There will be some capacity reductions in the U.S.-Australia/New Zealand markets due to overcapacity;
? Aerolíneas Argentinas will continue;
? There will be a merger in the USA aviation space, to aid further consolidation that started in 2023 (but will it end?);
? And despite the headlines there won’t be an airline failure in the USA;
? Another woman will become CEO of another major airline globally, solidifying aviation’s advance in breaking barriers;
? The race for sustainable aircraft fuel will heat up, looking at hydrogen more closely;
? AI will be used for route planning. It will recommend a new route from Reykjavik, Iceland to Hilo, Hawaii, USA called The Volcano Express. This non-stop flight connects the land of ice and fire in Iceland to the tropical paradise of Hawaii, bridging the gap between two regions known for their geological extremes. (This actually came from Chat GPT when asked: “Give me 5 airline non-stop flights that would connect unusual or crazy points.”... sometimes as editor, I allow some latitude).
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In relation to air service traffic rights for Australia, the Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts (the Department) is reviewing and updating their forward program for bilateral air services negotiations for the next two years, from April 2024 to March 2026. If you’d like to make comments on the forward negotiating program, these should be sent by email to [email protected] by Friday 23 February 2024.
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DATA Insight: Airfreight markets boomed during COVID; challenged post passenger markets returning
The airfreight market has always played a role in the airline industry for those carriers where the passenger business has been core. Combination carriers offer airfreight service as a means to utilize space that would otherwise be available for carriage. In a recent client study into the opportunity for airfreight at their airport, Ailevon Pacific was able to assess domestic cargo load factors and prepare a forecast for airfreight volumes at this airport.
Attracting or developing the opportunities for added volume of airfreight through your airport does offer opportunities for ancillary revenue and business opportunities (e.g. land development; building freight forwarder or cargo terminals). Significant investment may be required initially, that also provides supporting revenues for carriers adding or contemplating service to your airport.
DATA Insight: Airfare data to inform decision making
Increasingly, we’re asked to analyze airfare data, to understand the typical price points of carriers on different sectors. This daily task, and regular analysis allows clients to build a repository of rich data, normally only ever held by airlines. Daily fare scraping does take discipline, and rewards those informed with insights as to how and when fares top out at full load factor levels, if that data is also available. Peer comparisons and understanding your fare levels also allows informed conversations with catchment stakeholders and airlines alike. If you’d like to enquire about this service offering, please contact us.
In 2024… the first ever RoundTable to take place in Napier, & New Zealand, 19-21 June, 2024 (with MasterClass as a preamble event on Wednesday 19 June, 9am-4.30pm).
Register before (the end of) Feb to receive a discounted early-bird rate
Soon we’ll be sharing exciting suggestions for those wishing to extend their stay when attending the MasterClass and/or Roundtable in the Hawke’s Bay. Imagine discovering world renowned wineries, exploring 200km of scenic bike trails, taking a vintage car tour of our ArtDeco capital of Napier or playing a round of golf at Cape Kidnappers.
Stay tuned for itinerary suggestions, or explore more on Hawke's Bay's official tourism website: www.hawkesbaynz.com
Already in 2024, dinner at one of our venues, Craggy Range was making headlines recently for the wedding of the year, where past New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern tied the knot in a ‘great’ wedding | Otago Daily Times Online News (odt.co.nz)
REGISTER NOW! Use the QR code or JotForm link below. Extended... Early bird ends Feb 29th!
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