February 2025

Welcome to the very first newsletter of the GI-TOC’s Observatory of Organized Crime in Europe!?

Launched in April 2024, the Observatory of Organized Crime in Europe (EUR-Obs) serves as a platform for the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) to advance its research, networks, and activities across the European continent. Over the past year, we have deepened our analysis of the growing threat posed by transnational organized crime in Europe and its links to criminal markets and actors beyond the region.

As we kick off the new year, we are excited to introduce regular updates from the Observatory. Through these newsletters, we will share our wide range of analytical outputs – including research reports, policy briefs, short articles, podcasts, interviews, and event highlights – as well as updates on our ongoing activities.?

As part of these regular updates, we aim to shed light on some of the pressing issues shaping the region’s security landscape. Europe is currently facing a rapidly evolving organized crime threat. Organized crime-related violence escalated in several European countries, especially in Western and Northern Europe. Shootings with military weapons, attacks with makeshift bombs and hand grenades, arson: such incidents have become commonplace across Europe, posing considerable challenges to public security. At the same time, corruption related to organized crime has become notorious across the continent, undermining public trust in the criminal justice system.?

A new arms trafficking threat for Europe

The dynamics of organized crime in Europe are driving the demand for illicit arms across the continent. With the report Smoke on the Horizon: Trends in arms trafficking from the conflict in Ukraine in 2024, the GI-TOC’s Europe and Ukraine observatories laid the groundwork for a European Arms Monitor initiative. The programme aims to track developments in illicit arms trafficking across Europe, with a special focus on potential future arms trafficking threats arising from the war in Ukraine.?

Seismic shifts in Europe’s drug markets

A major driver of these developments is the fast expanding European drug market. Europe is facing an unprecedented drug crisis, with a number of concurrent trends that have the potential to create a perfect storm: the Taliban’s ban on opium could lead to a heroin shortage and the influx of synthetic opioids into Europe. The cocaine wave meanwhile continues unabated, with a crack epidemic driving demand to historic levels. The legalization of cannabis in some European countries may have a profound impact on illicit markets, while the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has triggered the emergence of a market for synthetic cathinones, which is showing the first signs of spilling over into the EU.?

In response to these complex challenges, we are excited to present the first edition of the European Drug Trends Monitor, a flagship product of the Europe Observatory. The monitor tracks the availability, retail and wholesale prices of illicit drugs and criminal market dynamics in 11 major European cities. Based on field research and insights from dark web and social media market analysis, the series offers timely and valuable insights for policymakers, law enforcement, researchers and other professionals working to address the harms of illicit drug markets, complementing available official data. Stay tuned, the second edition is already on its way!?

While the Drug Trends Monitor provides a deep dive into the dynamics of illicit drug markets, it is just one of the many analytical products the Observatory produces. As part of our ongoing analysis of organized crime in Europe, we are pleased to share several of our latest insights into the most pressing issues affecting the region today.

One critical challenge is the growing infiltration of highly potent synthetic opioids, such as fentanyl, into Europe’s drug supply chains. This emerging threat is explored two pieces of analytical insight, The looming threat of synthetic opioids in Europe and Highly potent synthetic opioids are already in Europe’s drug supply chains, where we look at how these substances are contributing to the rise in overdose deaths while straining criminal justice and healthcare systems across the continent.

As Europe's drug markets continue to evolve, some criminal groups are expanding their reach and influence in alarming ways. One of the most notable is the Mocro Mafia, which has grown beyond the Netherlands and Belgium to become a transnational force with a significant presence across the continent and beyond. The podcast episode The Mocro Mafia in Western Europe explores how this notorious group has developed from its origins in the Dutch-Moroccan community to control a significant share of Europe’s cocaine market.

This trend is also affecting neighbouring Germany. Another short piece, Violence without borders: Why is drug-related violence spilling over into Germany?, considers how fierce competition among criminal groups over trafficking routes has led to a surge in drug-related violence, particularly at critical ports and logistical hubs.

Another major driver of change in Europe’s drug markets is the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The GI-TOC’s Observatory of Illicit Markets and the Conflict in Ukraine has recently published Breaking Klad: Russia’s dead drop drug revolution, which uncovers how Russia's shift to darknet markets and dead drop methods has revolutionized its drug trade, with far-reaching consequences for neighbouring countries and the European region more broadly.

Migrant smuggling – an existential threat

The smuggling of migrants across the English Channel has become a highly organized and lucrative criminal enterprise, run by increasingly sophisticated networks. Along the French coast in particular, migrant smuggling is high risk, high reward. Our analytical insight Small boat casino: How to make and lose a fortune smuggling migrants on the French coast explores the networks orchestrating these operations, the huge profits at stake and the harsh realities for those risking their lives for a chance at a better future.

An earlier research report, Small boats, big business: The industrialization of cross-channel migrant smuggling, examined how Channel smuggling groups, particularly Kurdish-led operations, have adapted to security crackdowns and commercialized their methods, with the result that the crossings have become more dangerous than ever.

What to do?

How can Europe enhance its resilience to growing criminal threats? In Italy, the fight against organized crime is led not only by law enforcement but also by a resilient civil society, which plays a crucial role in countering mafia influence. From grassroots activism to business sector initiatives, the country has developed a robust framework of collective action against criminal networks, as explored in the article The Italian recipe: Civil society a key building block of resilience to organized crime.

We have also taken a closer look at the increasing importance of asset forfeiture as a means of combating organized crime. How are criminal assets being confiscated across Europe, and why are some countries more successful than others? The spoils of crime: Returning profit from crime to society offers a comparative look at best practices and the obstacles that limit the effectiveness of this powerful tool.?

Beyond the written

Alongside our published analysis, the first few weeks of the year have been busy for the team with a series of briefings, presentations and engagements across Europe. These events are vital in strengthening our partnerships with our donors and other stakeholders.

On 15 January, MILDECA, the French government agency responsible for combating drug use and addictive behaviours, hosted an exchange at which the GI-TOC presented research findings and analysis on drug trafficking trends in France and the broader European region. On the same day, MILDECA and the GI-TOC hosted a first exchange with French researchers and scholars on drug markets, with a view to establishing an ongoing exchange between authorities, civil society and academia on the growing challenges of illicit drugs in France.?

A week later, on 20 and 21 January,?the GI-TOC?hosted?its?European Arms Monitor conference?in Brussels. As the war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, the conference assessed the state of Europe’s illicit firearm markets and developed proactive policy options to address emerging risks. Together with EMPACT Firearms, INTERPOL, NATO, and representatives from Europe and the United States, the GI-TOC explored potential future scenarios for the war in Ukraine and the impact each would have on arms trafficking. ?This event was preceded by a scenario simulation workshop in Geneva late last year.?

On 14 February 2025, we hosted a high-level round table at Hotel Bayerischer Hof, co-organized by UNODC, GI-TOC and the Igarapé Institute. Steal, corrupt, kill: The evolving face of transnational organized crime brought together experts from INTERPOL , Europol , senior government officials and civil society leaders to examine the increasing convergence of organized crime, state collusion and global security threats. The discussion focused on strategies for disrupting transnational organized crime, strengthening resilience, and fostering a more coordinated global response. Panelists explored the intersections of organized crime with conflict and terrorism, as well as the growing political instrumentalization of criminal networks.

As we continue to monitor organized crime developments in Europe, we are committed to sharing our insights with all of you across a range of platforms – from short articles and podcasts to research reports and media engagements. Stay informed with our regular updates. We thank you for your continued support.

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