February 2025 Light Vehicle Production Forecast
S&P Global Mobility
The global leader in Automotive Intelligence and the Industry benchmark for clients around the world.
By Mike Wall , Executive Director, Automotive Analysis, S&P Global Mobility
Each month, we leverage global light vehicle production actuals, registration data, and sales data to provide the most up-to-date, short-term production forecast available.
Here's a closer look at global production data by region and our updated February production forecast.
Top Takeaways for the Month
The global auto industry is experiencing a mixed recovery, with vehicle demand rebounding in key regions but still lagging pre-COVID levels in several markets.
Significant risks remain from potential US tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico; these tariffs could have broader implications for global markets as well.
Regional developments in vehicle production and electrification are also shaping the industry's landscape, with notable variations across different markets. As the industry navigates these dynamics, ongoing trade negotiations and government policies will play a crucial role in determining future growth trajectories.
Regional Highlights
Europe:?Production outlook for Europe has been reduced by 14,000 units for 2025, with further declines expected in subsequent years. The forecast remains cautious due to ongoing tariff discussions and product cycle changes, including the delay of key battery electric vehicle models.
Greater China:?Greater China’s production forecast has increased by 397,000 units for 2025, driven by expected strong domestic demand, particularly as a result of the extension of scrappage incentives. Despite some expected demand hangover in early 2025, the outlook remains positive due to ongoing government support and robust export activity.
Japan/Korea:?Japan's production forecast has been upgraded by 38,000 units for 2025, largely due to stronger plans for Toyota's ICE vehicles. However, long-term projections have been downgraded due to Nissan's restructuring. South Korea's outlook has been reduced by 10,000 units amid sluggish domestic consumption and political instability.
North America:?North America's light vehicle production outlook has been adjusted down by 13,000 units for 2025 and continues to reflect market concerns over potential tariffs. While some manufacturers face reductions, GM's production has been revised up, particularly for its profitable full-size truck platform.
South America:?The production outlook for South America has been increased by 33,000 units for 2025, driven by stronger performance in Brazil. Despite this, challenges remain for select automakers amid periodic production stoppages and the impact of high-interest rates.
South Asia:?The outlook for South Asia's production remains largely unchanged for 2025, with a notable reduction for the ASEAN market due to economic headwinds offset by an upgrade for India. Indonesia faces significant challenges, while India's market outlook remains positive, supported by improved consumer confidence and a growing preference for personal mobility.
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