Feb 11am, FX/S&P/BTC Commentary
Euro-1.1305. The left hand chart is the daily Euro and daily $Yen. The Euro is flirting with the key 1.1300 level while $Yen has broken the key 110. I've been calling for a strong dollar story and what we want to see here is the Euro break 1.1300 and $Yen continue the rally above 110. This would confirm a dollar move--don't want to see one break and the other not break. For today, the days range in the Euro is only 45% of the 10-day average daily range so there is room to move but the average daily range now is only 52 points and declining. Last fall, the average range was around 80-90 points--so we have lost 40 points of potential profit in a day. The good news is that going back 3 years, every time the average range has fallen below 60, it preceded a breakout and trend in the Euro with expanding daily ranges. Resistance lies at 1.1327/30 and much stronger at 1.1347. Sell an early morning rally at 25 with stop above 30 or at 50 to be safer. Needs to get above 47 and short covering will kick in. Support comes in at 1.1300, 1.1295 and then 1.1290. The Euro could break lower today so I favor the downside but if not today, I think by Wednesday. EurJpy is a tricky one. I am bullish but seems on any given day it gets pulled by the Euro and the Yen so for EurJpy to follow by strong dollar story, it will have to be pulled up by $Yen.
S&P-2715. Market has held right above support and consolidating above the key 2680. Resistance still lies at 2750 but I expect that level to break in the next few days and to be followed by a quick move to 2800. Stay long and buy at or below 2700 with stops at 2670. A move below 2680 wouldn't be bearish in the big picture but it would negate the near term bullishness. Below 2680, could see a lot of stop loss selling and fresh shorts come and push the market to 2600. In the much bigger picture, 2580 is key. As long as above that, I expect the uptrend to last until the April to June period making all time new highs.
BTC-3590. Typical BTC---get one or two hourly bars that have explosive moves and then settle back into the tight little ranges. Resistance at 3700 held but even so, anything up to 4200 is just range trading. We could easily see new lows--I have no idea but A move above 4200 would be a breakout and below 3250. Until then--it's just noise but there are opportunities to trade.