Fears of further instability over 'state coup' attempt in Guatemala

Archie Philipps

On 08 December 2023, the Attorney General of Guatemala, María Consuelo Porras, declared the results of the August 2023 presidential and parliamentary election ‘null and void’ due to alleged “irregularities”, in what is widely seen as the latest attempt to deny the election victory of anti-corruption candidate Bernardo Arevalo. Prosecutors accuse Arevalo’s Semilla (‘seed’) party of forging signatures and money laundering during its establishment in 2018.

Bernardo Arevalo, who won 61% of the second round vote, is scheduled to take office on 14 January 2024.

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Guatemala has the largest economy in Central America in terms of population, although high poverty and inequality rates remain. Geopolitically, it is also an important transit country on the route for tens of thousands of migrants travelling from other Central American nations, north through Guatemala and Mexico, and towards the border of the southern United States. Several US delegations have visited Guatemala in recent months as the crisis in the country has deepened.

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The European Union, the Organisation of American States (OAS), and the United States have all expressed deep concern and condemned the move as politically motivated, with the OAS going so far as to call it an “attempted coup d'état by the Public Prosecutor's Office” and “the worst form of democratic breakdown”. Guatemala’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has rejected Porras’ allegations and insisted that "the results are validated, formalized and unchangeable”.

Officials at Guatemala’s Public Prosecution Service, several of whom are on the US State Department’s ‘Undemocratic and Corrupt Actors’ list, have repeatedly attempted to undermine Arevalo’s election victory by launching multiple investigations into the election and the Semilla party, as well as conducting raids, and opening ballot boxes.

The outgoing Government, led by Alejandro Giammattei, appears to be treading a fine line. It has repeatedly accepted the transition of power to an Arevalo administration, but so far has issued statements which avoid criticising the Attorney General, while rejecting international criticisms of the crisis.

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Demonstrations and road blockades by protestors, often led by the country’s indigenous population, calling for the transition of power to Arevalo have occurred since shortly after the election results. In October 2023, the Interior Minister of the outgoing Government resigned over protestor deaths.

We assess that the constitutional and political crisis is likely to deepen. Following the attempted nullification of the results, Arevalo has called for supporters to “energetically defend” his election win, and we assess a high probability of mass protests and road blockades, likely escalating as the inauguration date, 14 January 2024, nears. Should the inauguration not go ahead, we assess that the protests – potentially turning increasingly violent – to continue and to grow in scale and intensity, as well as a realistic possibility of further sanctions by the US Government on Guatemalan officials, and on the economy of Guatemala. An intensification of the political crisis, especially if civil conflict breaks out, could also lead to an increasing number of refugees travelling through Mexico towards the southern border of the United States.