Farnborough Airshow 2024 – A few afterthoughts and highlights from the event.

After 5 days of trading, announcements and air displays, in the aftermath of one of the most important shows of the aviation calendar, a few trends and conclusions can be gauged from the event which I considered appropriate to highlight and share here.

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Restrain: Even though some high-profile announcements were made at the show, the usual stream of orders was noticeable by their absence. There are a few more airshows in ahead in 2024, watch this space. Farnborough, nonetheless, has usually underperformed Paris in terms of numbers, the total tally of 286 this year not only lags Paris 2023 by 77%, it also pales in comparison with Farnborough 2018 with over 1,400 orders back then. Airlines have been riding on the post-pandemic pent-up demand phenomenon for a couple of years by now, with limited aircraft supply. There are mixed messages with some operators indicating strong fares and bookings in 2025, whilst others have voiced their concerns about softness in their markets. It is characteristic of the industry to place aircraft orders at the peak of the cycle and get them delivered during the downturn. Whether travel demand is softening, with less impending need for deliveries, and this will concur with OEMs output before their planned ramp-ups, that is, a balanced market scenario, for now, probably that still is a developing event with an ensuing ongoing discussion.

Widebodies dominated the scene: The 787-10 had as many commitments as the 787-9. Previous being the outlier, that place has now been taken by the 787-8. Having the same fuel capacity as the 9, there has been talk of an increased MTOW for the 787-10, a feature that would give it much more mission flexibility. Despite certification delays the 777-9 backlog has now surpassed the level of sales reached by the A380, another ULWB, but just as the Airbus former flagship geographical spread remains limited to the Gulf Carriers, the Far East and a handful European Airline Groups. The A350-900 also fared well at the show with 25 airframes, including a last-minute MoU from Avianca’s parent company Abra, becoming the only order from South America -the type had a brief stint in Latin America with TAM/LATAM. The composition of the current widebody fleet and the transition to an all new-generation both for replacement and growth is an interesting topic that I will address in an upcoming feature.

Boeing’s Still Standing: Even with all the headlines and its woes, confidence in the OEM has not been lost, operators cannot afford to. With an oversold, overstretched, supply-chain ridden Airbus, airlines have few places to look for aircraft other than Boeing. Even with the stretched, high-altitude C919 variants unveiled by Comac at Farnborough, and their C929, the Chinese OEM is still a long way off to enter the big leagues. Regardless that Embraer finished this show empty-handed, and ATR grabbed only 5 orders their monthly output still a trickle, all the manufacturers above have an already established presence, reputation and support network in the market, which is probably a bigger hurdle for Comac than manufacturing their first batch of aircraft.

The A330neo still holds its ground. There has been some skepticism about Airbus’ goal of producing 600 units of the re-engined A330. The classic has been an all rounder in Asia for over two decades, the neo retains some of that appeal in that market. The A330neo has also found a loyal base with Delta in North America, and Virgin Atlantic and TAP in Europe. The A330neo has a good geographical spread and a lower capital cost than the alternatives and because of supply chain issues it has found itself with shorter-term availability than the A321neo and filling a potential gap between the large narrowbody segment and the lower end of the narrowbody, a small niche thus order from some Arabian carriers; the A330neo is slowly and steadily building up the backlog with the likes of Flynas and VietJet. Finally, the A330neo MRRT will revive the fortunes of the A330-800 variant and will secure defense export contracts. Not the stellar seller of the 2010s, the A330neo is still kicking on this decade.

Engines: CFM is progressing well with its open-rotor RISE engine programme. Rolls-Royce s stated that by taking advantage of technology used in its small corporate engines, the Ultrafan will be scalable all the way from the 20,000lb up to the 84,000lb range, thus covering the entire narrobody and widebody market. Both engines will be SAF ready for EIS and both manufacturers are working hard to make them fuel agnostic with a view for deployment in the mid-2030s. As of now, it has not been completely evident that either Airbus or Boeing are ready to go to market with a clean sheet design by that date. By then the market will be certainly under pressure to launch a new product. A mid-market product, a 100–150-seater are some of the proposals that have been touted in the past. When will the OEMs be prepared to phase out their current narrowbody lines and come to the market with a state-of-the-art aircraft and new propulsion technology? That is the big question in Toulouse and Arlington; a straight announcement would potentially diminish the value appeal of the current backlog. And when the last of the line rolls out of the factory, values commanded by the the Neo and the MAX will behave accordingly, investors will be monitoring closely, as engines now command and even higher proportion of the residual value of their assets.

eVTOL: Vertical Aerospace , Lillium, Joby, Embraer’s EVO amongst others are either in certification stage or prototype production. There was a massive presence of this segment at the show, with all of the above having secured firmed orders and commitments from major airlines, lessors and direct investors and even players in the rotorcraft sector. This segment seems to be maturing well and on the right path to become an integral part of air connectivity for airlines and UAM in the broader segment.

Hydrogen: ZeroAvia’s Dornier and the B-N Islander and scalable (HFCS) by Cranfield Aerospace Solutions 10-seaters are on track and also maturing well, despite the demise of Universal Hydrogen, cell technology remains a strong proposal for decarbonization. Powertrains driven by electricity produced by hydrogen cells are at the core of their technology and both programmes claim to be able to scale this technology up to the 80-seat segment. Fokker is targeting 100% hydrogen propulsion just as Airbus’ ZEROe. These initiatives are a promising sign of the prospects of net zero aviation, as well as a reminder that there is a limit to what current technology can achieve and the challenging transition away from fossil fuels by the middle of the century.

All about defense: Without giving full commitment, the British prime minister Sir. Keir Starmer endorsed the GCAP, commonly known as the Tempest air fighter. Fissures between allies UK, Italy and Japan has surfaced just as much between the partners of the other sixth generation air fighter the FCAS, with Germany, France as Spain -Airbus/Dassault attempting to compromise in their conflicts of interest. But in the Air Display Danish F16 of the type destined for Ukraine, the Typhon Eurofighter, the F15, and the F35 stealth multirole platform show off their capabilities. Military drones were also ubiquitous in the air display as much as defense companies in the halls. In the current geopolitical environment investment in defense has taken centre stage; the commitment of NATO allies to invest 2% of GDP in defense a tacit priority.

Farnborough 2024 was much about Commercial Aviation as it was about military capabilities; you could feel it rumbling from the tarmac along with that pervasive JET-A1 smell that morning before the show. ??