Farewell to Fleet Street

It’s official. I have written my last issue of the Fleet Street Letter for Southbank. It will now be published here on ByteTree.com, as The Multi-Asset Investor. It is included as part of the PREMIUM package and becomes our second investment letter for traditional financial markets, alongside the Adaptive Asset Allocation (AAA) Report. This is a great moment for us and brings added depth and quality to our offering.

Past editors of the Fleet Street Letter include the entrepreneur Nigel Wray, the spy Kim Philby, and Lord Rees-Mogg. Who am I handing the reins to? Nigel Farage. I suspect his content will be… different.

I will continue to focus on investment analysis and do so to a high standard and to the best of my abilities. Thank you so much for the many supportive messages as well.

Friends of ByteTree on Twitter, please retweet. It really helps.

If you are a Fleet Street Street Letter reader and wish to continue to receive my best efforts, you can sign up here. The Multi-Asset Investor is published on Tuesdays, with occasional flash notes when things get hairy. Things won’t change, and as a PREMIUM subscriber, you get automatic access to all our other products.

My recent piece covered gold, where I have been concerned about the premium to index-linked bonds. I fear a 2020-type softening where gold struggles. The monetary environment has changed, and markets are risk-on. Surely that’s not great for gold? At least in the short term.

Gold at risk?

Using an actual 20-year TIPS that redeems in 2042, the gap becomes clear. A switch from gold to TIPS keeps you on the same trajectory, just that TIPS currently offer better relative value. Notice how it jumped more than gold yesterday.

Gold against a real TIPS

But it’s an illusion because gold’s recent rally in dollars merely reflects the falling dollar. Gold in GBP (blue) isn’t going up. In case you hadn’t noticed, the pound is on a tear.

No gold rally in pounds

Then my friend Dominic Frisby sent me this.

I love this sort of thing. Could it be that there’s some massive revaluation ahead? It is possible, but I can’t see one that would shoot past TIPS because a massive dollar weakening would see long-term inflation expectations rise. That would benefit TIPS too.

Furthermore, gold was fixed or pegged back in 1931 and 1969. Today it is free as a bird, so you’d have to believe in price suppression to buy that story.

But you never know – a great observation that something big lies ahead. I certainly agree with that.

ByteTrend Exchange Traded Funds

Briefly on ByteTrend ETF screening. We have taken it down from the non-premium site, but you can see it for free using this link.

The ETF universe has seen the red skies retreat, which means fewer ETFs are falling, and some decent trends are emerging as the dark blue grows.

Which sector ETFs look strong?

Solar, materials, Cleantech, Quality.

Which sector ETFs look weak?

FinTech, Blockchain, Cloud, Cannabis, space, betting, tech.

Trends continue for longer than we generally expect. Currently, the market is rewarding real companies with strong cashflow. It is ignoring the speculative, which is the opposite of early 2021.

You can see the screening tool here, which is still under construction. Regardless, it is a powerful tool and has been amazing in crypto. I screen against BTC, but you can also do USD or ETH or our own ByteTree Crypto Average (BCA).

If you like what I and the ByteTree team are doing, please don’t keep it to yourself. Feel free to forward this to friends and colleagues who might find this of interest.

Have a great weekend,

Charlie Morris - Founder, ByteTree