Fantasy Football - Lessons for business decisions.

Many millions of people play fantasy football and competitive work leagues have become great sources of banter during the working week. But what can we learn from the psychology of fantasy football decision making and how can we apply this to our business decisions?

Here are five transferable factors the fantasy football manager needs to be aware of and how they can be applied in business:

1. The bias blind spot

What is this?

Everybody has a cognitive bias, it's what makes us unique. The bias blind spot is when you are totally unaware of your own bias.

The Semelveis reflex (a great explanation of this can be found on wikipedia) is when your blind spot is so deeply embedded, you continually reject new information that should have changed your point of view long before.

Fantasy Football Example?

The best fantasy football players are adaptive and reflective in their thinking. My cognitive bias at the start of last season was that Everton are never a reliable source of fantasy football points and Calvert-Lewin (DCL) is not a natural goal scorer.

So heavy was my blind-spot that despite DCL consistently hitting the net during the opening ten game-weeks, it took me until November to actually draft him in. I lost significant ground as a result. My Semelveis reflex had been ultimately destructive to my chances of success.

Applying this to business.

Always be open minded and adapt to new information. Don’t lock yourselves in to traditional ways of working. Continually search for and be open to new ideas. Apply a continuous improvement approach to everything you do.

2. Chronotype (time of day)

What is this?

Every person has a chronotype meaning they are either better at making a decision making in the morning or the evening. Studies have proved we can improve our performance by upwards of 25% just by being aware of our chronotype and adjusting our decision making accordingly.

There is also a school of thought that for all people, executing decisions in the morning is optimum. Our cognitive function deteriorates during the day due to the negative impact of sleep pressure. People tend to make more aggressive or risky decisions in the evening and play it safe and preventative in the morning. This theory has been proven by observing tactics from chess players tactics that become ever more risky / attack minded later in the day.

Fantasy football example?

I am far more likely to regret the transfer I made last thing at night, than the one I choose to execute the following morning. Alas, drafting in Scott McTominay (yes Scott McTominay!) ahead of a triple game-week at the end of last season was one I executed at night. The regret I felt from that decision the following day felt like a minor hangover.

Work example?

Ever been in that situation where you’ve sent an e-mail to a team member last thing in the day that you regret the following morning? Ever confirmed business with a client and then the next day feel you could have got so much more out of the deal?

By all means write down the decision in the evening, but implement in the morning. Even if you end up arriving at the same decision, allowing your cognitive function to revive overnight provides a useful safety net.

3.The Primacy (anchoring) and Recency effect?

What is this?

Memory and cognitive psychology research has proved we remember things we see first and last well but tend to forget or reject the information received in the middle.

Ever been in the shops when you’ve left your shopping list at home? I’ll bet you can remember the first few items and the very last ones you added, but the ones in the middle elude you.

We tie our metaphorical anchor to the Primacy effect - the first information we receive, and conversely we disregard prior research with the Recency effect.

Fantasy football example?

At the beginning of a game-week, very often I’ve anchored my decision making to a brilliant performance I’ve watched on match of the day over the weekend – Tariq Lamptey for Brighton last September was one I remember well. (Plot twist – he never became a fantasy football asset beyond the ‘eye test’ of that particularly game).

I’ve also been known to get over excited by the news coming from Friday manager’s press conference just ahead of the deadline. But usually the most rational and useful information has come from statistical fantasy football analysis during the middle of the week, which I then reject at time of executing the decision.

Applying this to business?

Remember the things in the middle. Create a diary of your decision making rationale and don’t just knee jerk to the advice from the last person you’ve spoken to. Effective decision making requires a rational step by step process and consideration of all the information gathered no matter the timing.

4.Outcome and hindsight bias.

What is this?

The best way to improve the effectiveness of future decision making is to evaluate the process rather than the outcome.

Yet we all have a natural tendency to evaluate our success using complete hindsight bias. The problem with this is that it won’t improve our decision making itself, and can lead to emotional and knee jerk reactions.

Fantasy football example

Last year I bought in and captained Vardy for an appealing home fixture and he went on to score a measly 2 points while his emerging strike partner Iheanacho scored 20points. I kicked myself for that decision afterwards, it really hurt.

And yet, taking a step back, there was nothing that I could or would have done differently in the decision making process itself. All the statistics; heat maps, minutes played and history pointed to Vardy. The decision just didn’t turn out right on the day. There was nothing I could have done to improve the process so I didn't need to change anything about my future decision making.

Applying this to business.

Not all decisions we make will lead to the outcome we expect. But in assessing the lessons learned, we need to focus on evaluating the steps that could be improved rather than seeking to blame or necessarily dramatically changing course when things go wrong.

5. Self-Distancing

What is this?

This is my number one piece of advice. Enjoyment is the most important thing in life. We owe a quest for enjoyment to those that don’t have that opportunity any more. We owe it to ourselves.

Not to be confused with social distancing, self-distancing is a method of detaching yourself emotionally from the situation. I do this by having a series of statements along the lines of – will this matter a year from now, will I even be playing the same fantasy football game (or in the same business) five years from now?

By self-distancing we aim to decrease the impact of the negative and increase the impact of the positive.

Fantasy football example

In the 2020-21 season I had been leading the most competitive fantasy football draft league I play since March of this year. The likes of Gundogan and Lingard (unlikely heroes) had propelled me to pole position and I was hunting down a brilliant league and cup double.

Yet somehow it all imploded for me in the final gameweek – some irrational decisions (did I mention McTominay?) and an unbelievable dose of bad luck meant I lost on the final day by a gnat’s whisker to my biggest rival, my younger brother. See the final table below for evidence of how close this ended up being...

It took me a day or so of Self distancing before I was able to recognise that despite the pain of that last minute loss, it had been an incredible season and I had really enjoyed playing the game.

Applying this to business.

We are all paid to do a job and to hopefully we end up making more good decisions than bad ones. But as long as we’ve tried our best, and we continually focus on that, rather than the outcomes, then that’s all anyone can expect from us.

People make mistakes, some things will inevitably go wrong. That’s the same in business as it is in life itself. Enjoyment must always come first. Life is too short for anything else.

As for the fantasy football, McTominay this season anyone?