False Alarm, My New Book Is Out

I am excited to share with you that my new book, False Alarm has just been published by Basic Books.

If there ever was a time to step back from climate panic, it is now. We live in a world where 57% of all teenagers are frightened of global warming. Across the world, almost half of all adults believe that global warming will likely lead to the extinction of the human race.

Global warming is definitely a real and human-made challenge, and one we need to fix smartly. But it is not the end-of-the-world. The UN Climate Panel estimates that in half a century (around 2075), the net negative impacts of global warming will be equivalent to a reduction in the income of every person of about 0.2-2%.

In the UN Climate Panel’s middle-of-the-road scenario, the income of the average person will in 2075 have increased 2.63 times from today’s income. And since climate change might in the worst-case scenario might make this income 2 percent lower, the income might instead increase 2.56 times compared to today. This is clearly a problem. It is also clearly not a catastrophe.

My book shows the many ways we are constantly being presented with alarmist climate rhetoric, such as worst-case scenarios disregarding adaptation. This generates clicks and scares children, but it is decidedly unhelpful for smart policy-making.

The book analyzes how our current climate policies are mostly ineffective and often phenomenally expensive (e.g. the Paris Agreement will cost $1-2 trillion per year in 2030, yet deliver almost immeasurable temperature reductions by 2100).

And then it shows the way forward, using the Copenhagen Consensus cost-benefit estimates of climate policies, highlighting especially green innovation, along with a moderate CO? tax, adaptation, geo-engineering and prosperity.

Yes, global warming is one of our many challenges. But unless we manage to spend less and spend smarter on climate, we’re not going to fix climate, while we are going to end up ignoring too many of the world’s other big challenges.

I hope you’ll check out my book — you can read the first 25 pages here for free. And let me know what you think!

"This is a fantastic book. In it, Bjorn Lomborg examines through the lens of statistics the apocalyptic projections of the future of climate change. He points out, rightly, that the doomsday scenarios are misguided and that policy decisions driven by panic have real costs, particularly for the poor. False Alarm is a must-read."— Bibek Debroy, Chairman, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India

"Bjorn Lomborg's new book offers a data-driven, human-centered antidote to the oft-apocalyptic discussion characterizing the effect of human activity on the global climate. Careful, compelling, and above all sensible and pragmatic."— Jordan Peterson, author of 12 Rules for Life

"False Alarm is a timely and important book. Based on the latest scientific evidence and rigorous economic analysis, it provides a welcome antidote to widespread, irrational panic about a coming climate apocalypse. Instead, it provides a set of smart, rational policies for addressing global warming -- while not losing sight of the myriad other problems that beset our planet, including poverty and inequality. This book is essential reading for anyone who cares about our shared human future."— Justin Yifu Lin, former chief economist, the World Bank

"This is a very important and superbly argued book. Those who have been persuaded that climate change is not happening, and those who think catastrophe is imminent should both read it and know they can rely on Lomborg's meticulous analysis to put them right. The rest of us can be alarmed by his relentless revelation that the world is spending a fortune on making the plight of the poor and the state of the environment worse with foolish and expensive policies."— Matt Ridley, author of How Innovation Works

"Bjorn Lomborg is that rare thing: a clear-sighted realist about climate change. In False Alarm, he argues that it would be foolish to do nothing to prepare for a warmer planet, but it would be more foolish to pretend that we are doing things that will significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions when we are not. At the same time, getting serious about cutting CO2 emissions will have a cost. As Lomborg says, vastly more people die as a consequence of poverty and disease each year than die as a consequence of global warming. As in the past, we humans are capable of adapting to climate change in ways that can significantly mitigate its adverse effects, without choking off economic growth. To learn how, you must read False Alarm."— Niall Ferguson, the Hoover Institution, Stanford University