The fallout

The U.S. government abruptly suspended USAID - then moved to close it.

The U.K. government, diligently following its rule of always copying what the U.S. does - only less, announced it would cut its own Aid budget to increase its defense spending in 2027.

Similar choices are being discussed and made (in varying scales) across the capitals of other international development funder governments.

The Dutch are looking for foreign aid that is more relevant to Dutch tax payers:

We should expect more of these announcements in coming months. An Aid that is more transactional, utilitarian.

Feminist foreign policies, value based interventions, "we know what is best for you" approaches will likely take a back seat.

These actions are having effects beyond the cancelation of contracts and dismantling of projects:

• People have likely died or will die as a result of USAID's sudden suspension of operations. We should not forget this.
• Organisations are being affected. On Think Tanks is recording cases of think tanks whose budgets have been suddenly cut by 30% or more and find themselves unable to cover the salaries of several, dozens, of posts - including leadership positions.
• The jobs lost are likely going to affect the expert marketplace in several Aid-dependent cities like Nairobi (in Kenya, the Aid sector pays higher salaries that finance or energy!).

But this is also having an interesting (and potentially transformative) effect on public debate.

My LinkedIn feed is filling with 3 kinds of posts:

• Mostly U.S. and European posts feeling sorry for friends losing their jobs and complaints about the shortsightedness of the Trump administration.

In response, many have been posting lists of alternative sources of funding - especially U.S. private foundations. This is wishful thinking. At most, these will be used to help out "friends and family". USAID (and FCDO later) leave a massive gap in funding:

• Africans, and some Latin Americans and Asians, increasingly reflection on why (WHY?) is it that their countries were still (STILL!) so dependent on foreign assistance to provide so many basic services to their populations.
• And more nuanced reflections on the way in which these cuts and policy shifts have taken place and what this all means.

Ken Opalo have covered many of these issues in a recent post with a focus on the field of international development.

The only thing I would add (or disagree with) is that I am not too concerned about the future of international development professionals. I think the profession and the sector are part of the problem.

Ken's latest post offers some interesting insights into the discussion on weaning off foreign aid.

We need more unmediated cooperation and collaboration.

For more perspectives on the U.S. foreign aid shift checkout OTT's Research Support Service's Digest (and sign up to the newsletter):

Captured States

These changes will become a new normal. Aid, as I have been saying for years is not important for voters in donor countries. It has no bearing on their lives - and needs.

What I think is more worrying is that the way in which these decisions have been made provide ample evidence of state capture. The New South Institute :

Daniel Kaufmann in the Financial Times :

What is happening in the U.S. happens everywhere all the time. It feels that states are captured by default.

The new normal is a world in which the U.S., hitherto a standard followed by governments across the world, will now set the standard for how states are governed elsewhere, too.

I think this calls for think tanks and their funders to accept this new state of affairs. The world is turning more authoritarian. They need to accept too that what worked before for them will not necessary work in the future.

Bilateral funders played critical roles in supporting and defending civil society organisations and the most vulnerable populations. When the Peruvian Congress moved to impose new restrictions on NGOs funding donor country embassies, including the U.S. threatened to cancel travel visas - the proposed law was dropped.

Now, however, will the U.S. care? Why would it?

New advisory support

In response we are launching a new advisory support service for think tank leaders:

We will explore these and other challenges that think tanks face and seek opportunities to address them.

Find out more about what we can do for you:

Until next time!