The Fallacy of Outcome Bias: A Thanksgiving Tale of Bitcoin

Note from Orlando: This is a different edition of Robin of the Hood. This is a fictional story based on real data meant to teach a valuable lesson.

It’s Thanksgiving 2010, and dinner has just ended. The family is relaxing around the table, chatting about life and the upcoming holiday season. Then, out of nowhere, Cousin Dave—the youngest cousin, fresh out of college and notorious for his half-baked schemes—decides to share his latest obsession: cryptocurrency.

“Have you heard of Bitcoin?” he asks.

The room goes silent. No one has a clue what he’s talking about, and frankly, no one respects Dave’s investment advice. After all, how could anything he suggests be worth considering? Bitcoin is trading at less than $0.30 per coin, and Dave’s track record isn’t exactly stellar. The family quickly shuts him down, rolling their eyes and moving on to another topic.

But not everyone ignores him. A couple of curious cousins decide to humor him. They each put $50 into Bitcoin that day, mostly out of a sense of adventure. It’s a small enough amount that they figure, “Why not?”

2011: A Glimmer of Hope

A year later, Bitcoin has jumped to $2.49. The $50 investments from last Thanksgiving are now worth over $400. It’s not enough to change anyone’s life, but it’s certainly enough to get some attention.

At Thanksgiving dinner, Cousin Dave is feeling vindicated. “I told you!” he says, a smug grin on his face. More family members are intrigued this time. Bitcoin’s rise seems like it might be more than a fluke, and a few others decide to dip their toes in. Another round of $50 investments is made, and Dave is no longer dismissed outright. He’s not a prophet yet, but he’s no longer the butt of the family jokes.

2012: Building Momentum

By Thanksgiving 2012, Bitcoin is trading at $12.51. The original $50 investments from 2010 are now worth over $2,000. The cousins who first bought in are glowing. They’ve been singing Cousin Dave’s praises all year, and for the first time, the aunts and uncles are taking notice.

“What exactly is this Bitcoin, Davey?” Aunt Denise asks.

Dave, emboldened by Bitcoin’s growth (up 4,000% since 2010), becomes more vocal. “This is the future of money,” he declares confidently. This year, the younger cousins are all in. They pool their savings, each putting in $1,000 to buy as much Bitcoin as possible. The family dinner is abuzz with excitement, and Dave’s status is rising.

2013: The Year of Dave

Thanksgiving 2013 is a celebration like no other. Bitcoin is now trading at $813. Dave has gone from being dismissed to being the family’s financial guru. The original investors from 2010 are millionaires, their $50 now worth over $135,000. Everyone is convinced Dave is a genius.

Dave doesn’t need to persuade anyone this year. The family is clamoring for his advice. Everyone is pouring money into Bitcoin—refinancing homes, maxing out credit cards, and taking loans. Cousin Dave caters the Thanksgiving spread, and the table is packed with extended family and friends, all eager to get in on the action.

2014: The Fall Begins

Thanksgiving 2014 is a far cry from the previous year. Bitcoin has dropped to $376, less than half of its value from 2013. The excitement has turned to anxiety. Many family members are facing financial strain. Loans are due, savings accounts are depleted, and tempers are running high.

Cousin Dave, once hailed as a hero, is now the villain. “How could you lead us into this?” Aunt Denise demands.

Some family members sell their Bitcoin, determined to cut their losses. Others cling to hope, but the room is filled with tension. Dave, looking defeated, insists, “It’s just a correction. Bitcoin will bounce back.” But few are willing to listen.

2015: The Silent Year

By Thanksgiving 2015, Bitcoin is trading at $328. The family avoids the topic entirely. Those who sold in 2014 feel vindicated, while those who held on are quietly regretting their decision. Dave keeps his head down, and for the first time in years, Bitcoin isn’t part of the conversation.

2016: The Comeback

Thanksgiving 2016 brings a glimmer of hope. Bitcoin has climbed to $739, more than double its value from the previous year. The younger cousins who held onto their Bitcoin are finally seeing their patience pay off. Dave, cautiously optimistic, begins to regain some credibility.

“I told you it was a long-term play,” he says. This time, the skeptics stay quiet. Bitcoin isn’t back to its 2013 highs, but it’s moving in the right direction.

2017: The Messiah Returns

Bitcoin is trading at an unbelievable $8,771 by Thanksgiving 2017. The original $50 investments from 2010 are now worth over $1.4 million. Cousin Dave is the family’s golden child. He arrives at dinner in a Tesla, exuding confidence. Everyone hangs onto his every word, and for the first time, there’s no skepticism. The family is all in on Bitcoin, convinced it’s the best investment of their lives.

2018: The Crash (Again)

Thanksgiving 2018 is a different story. Bitcoin has dropped to $4,015. The family’s fortunes have been halved, and Cousin Dave is back in the hot seat. “This is why you don’t gamble,” the skeptics say, louder than ever.

Dave defends himself, but the family isn’t buying it. The same people who hailed him as a genius last year now call him reckless. The mood is tense, and the once-praised Bitcoin Prophet is now seen as a fool.

2021: The Peak of Peaks

By Thanksgiving 2021, Bitcoin is trading at $58,927. The family is in disbelief. The original investors are now multi-millionaires, and even those who invested later are seeing incredible returns. Cousin Dave is celebrated as a visionary. He doesn’t need to say “I told you so” anymore—it’s implied in everything he does.

2024: Full Circle

This Thanksgiving, Bitcoin is trading at an astronomical $95,531. The family gathers to celebrate their collective wealth. Cousin Dave is the undisputed hero. Even the skeptics have come around, praising his foresight and courage.

The Fallacy of Outcome Bias

This story is not about Bitcoin, it's not even about investing. It's about the fallacy of judging decisions based on their outcomes instead of the information available at the time. Cousin Dave’s knowledge and intentions never changed, but the family’s perception of him shifted dramatically, depending solely on Bitcoin’s price. How often are you judging people more on the outcome than the process they followed? We don't have to wait until Thanksgiving 2025 to determine whether Cousin Dave is a Genius, Idiot, Savant, or a Crook. You don't have to wait until the outcome of your latest strategy to determine whether it was well thought out. Focus on the process. Love the work. The victories will come and even when they don't learn to judge based on the quality of the work and not merely the outcome.