Fallacy Friday: The Dunning Kruger Effect

How difficulties in recognizing your own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessment.

Or we can just call it: why stupid people think they're smart and smart people think they're not.

Scientific literature is often kinder in it's wording. It talks about "low ability" individuals. Sounds better doesn't it. In essence these "low ability" people assess their competence in a specific domain as being much higher than it actually is. They combine a "low ability" with overconfidence. So as a manner of speaking they're stupid and proud of it. Yet individuals with a "high-ability" underestimate their competence. So they're smart but at the same time they're not so confident?

So what?

People with "low ability" don’t realise there is a lot of knowledge that they mis. But "high ability" people do realise this. And as a result feel less secure.

"Low ability" people simply don't know they are not aware and that makes them feel over-confident. As a result of their limited capacity they end up making erroneous decisions. But at the same time don't have the meta capacity to realize it. Paradoxically Dunning Kruger in their paper also showed that improving "low ability" people helped them to recognize their limitations. So they helped them become smarter only so they could realize they're not. Now you know that you don't know.

When and where does it happen?

• When having a discussion on a complex issue, let's say on climate change. People with "low ability" might argue that ‘there is no global warming since it is still cold in winter'. Where in fact they are just not capable to grasp the extensive amount of evidence available and process it.
• During elections, politicians often willingly make use of this bias. Making extreme and confident claims that "low ability" people with no contradicting knowledge or capacity to process are likely to support.
• The flip side of this effect is that "high ability" people often make wrong assumptions as well. They assume that a task that is easy for them is also easy for others. And hence they might fail to get their story across in a way that is comprehensible to others.

What can I do about it?

• Check for overconfidence. If someone seems overly confident during an interview. You might feel impressed and it could be he is driven and ambitious. But it is also very well possible that he is suffering from a little Dunning Kruger.
• Know your knowledge limits. People might see you as knowledgeable in one area, but this does not mean that you are an expert in other areas as well. But be aware, it might very well feel like that.
• Involve people with domain knowledge. And avoid making important decisions outside of your expertise area all by your self.

That's it. So the next time you think you are really smart, think again. You might be suffering from Dunning & Kruger. Be smart and ask an expert. And ask him to explain it to you, as if talking to a person of "low ability".

Show me the Science!

• The classic demonstration of this effect was first described by psychologists Dunning & Kruger in 1999 and the effect is named after them in. Put that on your bucket list! You can find the original paper here.
• The article was aptly named: Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments.
• In 2000 they won the Ig-Nobel prize for their paper. This prize is to honor research that "first makes people laugh, and then makes them think." 
• The existence of this effect has been supported by a number of other studies.