The Fallacies Of California’s All-BEV Aspirations

California has great plans for a majority battery electric vehicles (BEV) to provide for transportation needs in the state by 2035, with some estimates of around 12.5 million. What are the implications to the state electric grid’s ability to handle this increased surge in energy requirements, the ability for citizens to charge their vehicles, and the affordability of electricity??

Background:?

New California regulation accelerates requirements that automakers deliver an increasing number of zero-emission (ZEV) light-duty vehicles each year beginning in model year 2026. Sales of new ZEVs and Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) will start with 35% that year, build to 68% in 2030, and reach 100% in 2035. These sales preempt ramping up to 100% BEV in 2035. The regulation realizes and codifies the light-duty vehicle goals set out in Governor Newsom’s Executive Order N-79-20.??

By model year 2030, the rules require the vehicle to maintain at least 80% of electric range for 10 years or 150,000 miles, (phased in from 70% for 2026 through 2029 model year vehicles). By model year 2031, individual vehicle battery packs are warranted to maintain 75% of their energy for eight years or 100,000 miles, (phased in from 70% for 2026 through 2030 model years). ZEV powertrain components are warranted for at least three years or 50,000 miles. Graph 1 depicts this ramp-up in BEV/PHEVs.?

Graph 1 – Percentage of California Vehicles To Be ZEV/BEV By Year

Another California mandate is to shift all of its power to renewables by 2045, including the shutdown of Diablo Canyon Nuclear Station, slated to shut down in 2030. Nuclear energy is the only current baseload source of emissions-free energy that the globe employs.??

California grid has been unreliable:?

After the Air Resources Board produced its BEV mandate, within six days California’s power grid was so taxed by heat waves that an unprecedented, 10-day emergency alert warned residents to cut electricity use (including BEV re-charging), or face outages. ?

The 10 days of triple-digit temperatures across the state in September 2022 sent power demand surging to a record level, bringing state regulators close to ordering rolling blackouts, a potentially deadly move and a political disaster.?

“Went right up to the edge of breaking our grid, but it didn’t,” Governor Gavin Newsom said at a Clinton Global Initiative event in September 2022, describing that month’s scorcher to dignitaries gathered in New York City for Climate Week at the U.N. ?

California’s recent decisions to postpone the closure of its last nuclear plant and to extend the life of some of its natural gas-fired facilities?only highlight the fallacies of their BEV goals.?

High cost of California electricity:?

As more renewables are injected into the California grid, additional transmission lines, backup generation and/or energy storage facilities will have to be added, thus raising the cost of the retail residential rate of electricity in the state.?

California electricity prices rose 6.54 times more than the rest of U.S. during 2011-2019 (cents/kWh), as shown in Graph 2. While the 2022 California residential electricity retail rate was 23 cents/kWh, it reflected an 11% annual inflation rate from 2020-2022.?

Graph 2– Electricity prices in California 2011-2019

“The cost of electricity is trending so high that it represents a threat to California meeting its goals,” said Mark Toney, executive director of the advocacy group Utility Reform Network.?

California energy supply is lacking its BEV mandates:?

With increasing amounts of BEV’s on California’s highways, and grid reliability issues, it seems logical that these two events are on a collision course that will negatively impact California consumers and workers. With 15 times more electric cars expected on California’s roads by 2035, how will the electricity supply/demand balance be achieved??

Powering the vehicles in California with electricity means the state must triple the amount of electricity produced.?

Growing demand for electricity and the fickle nature, for now, of greener technologies such as wind and solar are making it hard to progress toward the state-mandated goal of a grid that’s 100 percent emissions-free by 2045. ?

A retired UC Berkeley electrical engineering professor who specializes in power grids, Sascha von Meier, said, “We are not yet on track. If we just take a laissez-faire approach with the market, then we will not get there, planning and permitting is very urgent”.?

“Oh, my lord, we are in a very bad situation compared to even the worst case that we anticipated,” Siva Gunda, vice chair of the California Energy Commission, said he recalls thinking in the spring, when supply chain delays and a tariff on solar imports, compounded by severe drought started to look like a multi-year power crisis.?

The possibility of rolling blackouts became a shadow looming over California Democrats, even those who felt uneasy about keeping Diablo Canyon open. Some talked publicly about how outages contributed to the impeachment of then-Gov. Gray Davis at the beginning of the century.?

Renewables provided 36 percent of the state’s power supply on average in 2022, however, to meet state mandates, it will have to build solar and wind at almost five times the pace of the past decade. The state will have to build 6 gigawatts (GW) of new resources a year for the next 25 years, something never done previously. By 2045, state officials want offshore wind to produce 25 percent of California’s power, a more ambitious goal than any other state.?

How will the state provide reliable power supply to its citizens with more intermittent solar and variable wind energy, especially in the 5-9 PM hours each day??

Are the key state agencies for electricity, the California Energy Commission (CEC), the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), and the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), making logical decisions that are executable, or is there too much wishful thinking/planning at work??

We are not seeing the requisite capacity planning by the CEC, CAISO, nor CPUC to close this gap between mandates and sufficient energy, grid reliability, and charging stations for the state.?

The total electricity consumed by Californians is expected to surge by 96% between 2020 and 2045, while net demand during peak hours is projected to increase 60%, according to a study commissioned by San Diego Gas & Electric.?

Southern California Edison worries that if drivers charge during late summer afternoons, electric vehicles could strain the grid, said Brian Stonerock, the utility’s director of business planning and technology. Edison’s service area includes the desert, where customers rely on air conditioning, and their peak use times are when solar power is less available as the sun goes down.

California will soon lose major sources of electricity: the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant and at least four coastal natural gas plants. Combined, nuclear power and natural gas provide nearly half?of the total electricity consumed in California.

To replace them, the state Public Utilities Commission has ordered utilities by 2026 to procure 11.5 gigawatts of new renewable energy resources, or enough to power 2.5 million homes.

A new state mandate requires 60% of California’s power supply to come from renewables by 2030 — nearly double the amount?of 2022.?

And by 2045, solar and wind combined must quadruple, according to the California Energy Commission.?That’s about 69 gigawatts from large-scale solar farms, up from 12.5 gigawatts, plus triple the amount of rooftop solar?and double the amount of onshore wind power.?

California’s target to build at least 6 gigawatts of solar and wind energy and battery storage a year for the next 25 years is daunting, given that in the past decade, it’s built on average just 1 gigawatt of utility solar and 0.3 gigawatt of wind per year. In the past three years, the pace sped up, with more than 4 gigawatts added annually, state data shows.

The public charger disconnect:?

Currently, about 80,000 public chargers operate statewide, with another estimated 17,000 on the way, according to state data.?To meet recharging demand for the 8 million BEVs expected in California by 2030, will require 1.2 million chargers, or 15 times what is currently available.?

To achieve California’s energy and emission goals, 1) drivers must avoid charging cars during evening hours when less solar energy is available and price is much higher, 2) must have more than a million new charging stations to be operating, and 3) more offshore wind, and solar farms must be added.?

Some of the problems with the current California recharging plans are:?

1.????What if consumers are only able to recharge vehicles during on-peak periods after work in the 4-9 PM period when prices are higher, and its negative impact on grid stability/reliability??

2.????How to incent drivers to charge their cars during off-peak hours revolving around incentive Time-of-Use tariffs that shift recharging from 4-9 PM to mid-day when solar energy is readily available??

3.????How to solve the problem with recharging during the daylight hours is that many people don’t have unrestricted access to chargers at their jobs or homes.?

4.????For drivers who live in apartments or condominiums, charging during off-hours may not be an option.??

By expanding vehicle-to-grid technology, state officials hope electric cars will send energy back to the grid when electricity is in high demand, but the technology is new and has not been tested in electric cars. Additionally, providing this service from private BEVs to the state’s grid will reduce the number of years of reliable battery service for the public’s BEVs, dis-incenting the idea of vehicle-to-grid energy transfer.??

But for some drivers, especially those who live in apartments or condominiums, charging during those hours may not be an option.??

A lot of the increase in demand is going to come from electrifying transportation and it’s really going to hinge on when people can charge, and that remains a behavioral and technological question that California has yet to solve.??

In the summer when energy is the most expensive, PG&E customers pay about 55 cents per kilowatt-hour during peak hours, more than double the 24 cents during off-peak times, according to PG&E spokesperson Paul Doherty.???

Assembly member Vince Fong, a Republican from Bakersfield, told state agencies at a joint legislative hearing in November 2022. “You’ve got an electricity grid that is leaning on customers to do more, instead of, actually, as a state, generating the power we need to keep the lights on.”?

California is deploying new chargers with funds from an $8.9 billion?investment for electric vehicle incentives from this year’s budget. Those dollars are being used for 170,000 new chargers.??

In addition, California also received $384 million in federal funding?this past year to help it construct a 6,600-mile statewide charging network and deploy 1.2 million chargers by 2030, according to the California Energy Commission.??

Summary:?

As California moves to more BEVs with renewable energy providing more of its energy mix, there are a number of red flags that demand careful planning, technology stress-testing, and economic incentives. Key concerns will be:?

1.????Will the California grid remain resilient and reliable in the future as more and more renewable energy is added to the mix, and as demand increases??

2.????Will California energy prices continue to inflate at a 3.5% or greater annual rate with more renewable energy and storage facilities in the rate base??

3.????How will California address the need for charging stations to provide energy to its potential 100% BEV fleet??

4.????Will Californians revolt at the higher prices for electricity (11% annual rates for 2020 and 2021), in the future??

I welcome your comments and questions, and the opportunity to assist you with your energy questions and concerns. I am the principal at Reliant Energy Solutions LLC, a Professional Engineer, Certified Energy Manager, Renewable Energy Professional, and can be reached at [email protected] . My website is: www.reliantenergysolutions.com?

You are welcome to review my previous energy articles at the link shown below.?

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