Fall Wrap-Up

Below is our analysis of how the market fared in the Fall. The short answer: the market in both boroughs was strong, with stable prices and more contracts signed despite fewer new listings.

Thanksgiving is usually viewed as the end of the official Fall market, though the period from Thanksgiving until Christmas can bring a flurry of activity as sellers are anxious to get deals done before the market really quiets. We will report back in a few weeks on how the "last gasp" in December turns out.

Manhattan Snapshot

In both October and November, contracts were up significantly compared to last year and surpassed historical averages (901 and 846, for October and November, respectively), despite fewer new listings over the same time period. While contracts and new listings declined from October to November, this is typical.

Closed sale prices for October and November did not change appreciably from month-over-month or year-over-year. Overall, fewer new listings coupled with strong contract activity meant fewer days on market and a healthy rate of absorption, making for a "neutral" market after a long stint as a buyer's market.

On the ground, open house activity has waned throughout the Fall, however, in the week after the election, activity jumped 60%. The best attended open houses were in Central Harlem, the Financial District, and Carnegie Hill, while activity lagged in Washington Heights, Hell’s Kitchen, and NoMad.

Brooklyn Snapshot

Similar to Manhattan, signed contracts in Brooklyn were up despite fewer new listings compared to last year. New listings in the in-demand areas were absorbed quickly, while lagging sales in South Brooklyn, the largest segment, kept overall inventory even with historical averages. Prices saw a modest year-over-year increase, perhaps reflecting a bump in activity in August when those deals were negotiated at the moment that interest rates fell.

Although open house activity in Brooklyn was much stronger compared to Manhattan, it was markedly lower in October and November than in September. However, unlike Manhattan where open house activity serves as a proxy for buyer sentiment, in Brooklyn, the averages in our dataset are heavily driven by overwhelming attenance at a few popular listings (which may draw 20+ visitors). With that in mind, it makes sense that averages would decrease from when new listings peak in September to when they are at the lowest point in November.