The Fall of Raisi: Invisible Hands in a Crash of Alliances

In the aftermath of a suspicious helicopter crash in the mountains, the world's intelligence agencies scramble to uncover the truth behind the death of Iran's president, each with its own hidden aims.

Buckle up for a hard landing, literally, because if this was not an accident, it could just be the Archduke Ferdinand 2.0 moment that none of my readers wants to see. The geopolitical stunt-copter just claimed its latest victim this last week, and the dust has yet to settle. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, along with his foreign minister and other key dignitaries, took an unscheduled terminal descent, courtesy of ... who knows? Iranian State media confirmed the crash overnight, and the repercussions have been sending shockwaves far beyond the Middle East.

Iran is more than a regional player, or a defunct, backward country of savages; it's a shadow power with a history spanning millennia.

A stalwart ally of Russia in its Special Military Operation in Ukraine, Iran's support has been pivotal. From kamikaze drones to military advisers, Iran is bolstering Russia's capabilities in no small way. This burgeoning Russo-Persian bromance might soon solidify into a military alliance, reshaping regional dynamics and beyond. Many of their other interests align, including peace and regional stability, which poses a threat to those whose interests diverge, particularly the Axis of the USA, the UK and Israel.

Mr. Raisi’s untimely death comes hot on the heels of an assassination attempt on Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico. Shot at close range, Mr. Fico survived and is in stable condition. According to pro-Western media his attacker, a fervent pro-Ukrainian, targeted Mr. Fico for his Kremlin-friendly stance. Although Slovakia's split from the NATO cheerleading squad highlights Europe's internal fractures, those with a more worldly take on things (including Robert Fico himself) attribute it to his opposition to the recent WHO Treaty.

That was clearly a deliberate and premeditated act, whereas this more recent event is quite literally, well, cloudy. Picture this: from a trio of helicopters, the one packed with the high-ranking officials vanishes into the treacherous mountains of East Azerbaijan Province, with no survivors ... while the other two land safely at a nearby mine. Officially, Iran is blaming inclement weather.

Unofficially, whispers of foul play are echoing in the corridors of power ... and why let a good conspiracy theory go to waste, right?

Iran and Israel have recently been exchanging unpleasantries via missile strikes, ergo Israel had to quickly and loudly deny any involvement. “It wasn’t us,” they proclaim. It might be more accurate for them to say "We want him, and most of the rest of you, dead, and we're trying to destroy you ... just not today." That is, of course, not how diplomacy works, nor should we expect a complete understanding of these events soon enough to prevent whatever fallout they produce.

On that cynical note, the very public display of ballistics is a fart in the wind compared to recent unconfirmed reports of a thwarted nuclear exchange.

The louder Israel shouts, the more suspicious it gets. In the high-stakes game of international politics, denials are often all the confirmation needed. There has been speculation of an inside job, perpetrated by Azerbaijan, but this seems as plausible as Russia bombing the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Oddly, the verifiable weather is such a credible cause that the denials seem particularly overblown.

While Mr. Raisi was not without his detractors at home, earning him vile monikers among dissidents, this is being exaggerated for effect by a propaganda machine that ignores worse accusations against the Bush and Clinton families, among others. It is not my place to defend any politician's reputation; my remarks are meant to objectify the perspective rather than to identify with any faction. And yet the public reaction I have observed among Americans, who often trivialize the suffering and death of others, is shameful.

For now the wisest course of action is to watch, and wait for a response, which will be slow and indirect. Westerners tend to be impatient, giving them a significant disadvantage in the information arena of the wars they are waging in Asia, whether with bullets, bullion or bad loans. Another major cultural difference is that Asian nations (including Russia) see victory as imposing the terms of the peace, whereas the Western strategist defines it as the destruction of his enemies.

This also explains their different time horizons in war.

Israel is actively denying involvement ironically because bad weather is its best and only alibi. The question of who benefits from this is complicated, and the answer once again depends on time. In the short run, the disturbance seems to favor Iran's external enemies, most of whom understand little to nothing about its internal power structure nor the likely successor ... not of the President, but of the aging, unelected Supreme Leader into whose slippers Mr. Raisi was poised to step.

Although beyond the present scope, in the long run it is not unlikely that Mr. Raisi will be viewed as more moderate than his successors, and better prepared.

Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court (ICC) continues to flail in the shifting winds of global politics. The Court just issued arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leaders, and in the same 24-hour span. Coincidence? This bored ape thinks not. The Middle East is a powder keg right now, and these events are interconnected. Ironically, the Biden administration, which supported the ICC’s warrant against Vladimir Putin, now claims the court has no jurisdiction over his pal Bibi.

Hypocrisy? Absolutely. Surprising? Not at all.

The Court’s struggles are a leading indicator of the fracturing unipolar world order, a relic of the not-so-good-old-days when the USA called the shots via the preeminence of the Petrodollar. After the Cold War, it briefly stood unchallenged, dictating terms to the rest of the world instead of using its power for the greater good. Those halcyon days of wasted opportunity are now spent.

The geopolitical landscape today is multipolar, with Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and other up-and-comers, not to mention the BRICS nations, challenging the Western Bloc.

Because this event unfolds amidst such global upheaval, whether accidental or not, the many players in the Grand Game will attempt to take advantage of the situation before their rivals do. In this case, even if it is an act of God, the effect is virtually the same as an assassination. Whether the fall of Iran’s president was an accident or not, whatever happens as a result won't be.

Remember when Pakistan’s first female president suggested Osama bin Laden had died of kidney failure? She was gunned down shortly after, and then the US "found and killed" the fugitive terrorist. Mr. Raisi’s death fits this pattern. There’s a war raging between Israel and Hamas, with Hezbollah and the Houthis also involved. And in the midst of this chaos, someone possibly decided to make a decisive play in this high-stakes game of life-and-death.

So, what does all this mean?

The unipolar dominance of the United States is over, as is the “End of History” that it prophesied in the 1990s. That was never realistic, and within a generation it has been replaced by a multipolar world brimming with rivalries and alliances. Navigating these choppy waters will be hard enough for captains, so be careful which boats you board.

The helicopter crash that claimed Mr. Raisi’s life is more than just unfortunate; it is yet another frightening indicator of risk in these tense times. I keep imagining myself in that chopper, straining to maintain composure and make my peace with God, which only proves that I'm still breathing. In reality, the show is in the early acts, and we’re all along for the unprecedented thrill-ride of human history as this geopolitical helicopter spirals toward chaos in the clouds.

? adrian dyer, 2024