The 'The Fall Guy' and 'Tarot' Kick Off To the Summer Season Is Anything But Marvelous - Ticket Sales Tracking (4/29-5/2)

Hi,

I've been tracking ticket sales for movies recently at my two local NJ AMCs that do fairly well.

Last week, Challengers?officially became the highest opening for acclaimed director Luca Guadagnino and helped solidify Zendaya as a box office pull, even if actuals did not exactly meet my expectations. With the power of tennis and social media thurst traps, Challengers came in nearly spot on to my?$1.43M Thurs?prediction. Sadly, the Friday actuals came in slightly below my $4.90M expectation. Still, not a deal breaker as actuals were not too fat behind my $6.83M Thurs+Fri?opening day guesstimate. Is this the opening that will save Hollywood? No, but it is a good refresher that stars can still open original, arthouse movies. With stellar, viral word of mouth, Challengers might just be able to see green against its oddly hefty $55M price-tag.

Welcome to the official 2024 Summer Box Office season!! Don't be confused. There is indeed NO Marvel film coming out on this first weekend of May. You can thank the dual writers/actors strike for that. Instead, studios have pivoted to a light season kick-off with a big-starred action title and a counter-programming horror. First up is Universal's The Fall Guy trying to capitalize on the opening Summer slot after an initial March 2024 date. While the action pic is based on an 80s television show, the IP is old and irrelevant enough that this will be more of a test of stars and the rom-com genre on general audiences. Good thing director David Leitch has had successful experience in the genre with Bullet Train from two Summers ago. As a fellow star-driven action title, we will use The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warefare , which we will use a comp. Trying to grab the younger audiences, Sony Pictures is coming with their PG-13 original, Tarot. Despite Horrorscope being a much better name, Tarot is here to grab the young horror fans while the market is vacant for May. As an teen-skewing horror title, we will use Thanksgiving as a comp. I have recorded ticket sales for this Thursday and Friday for 3 Days. The green bars are how much ticket sales increased from day to day.

Welp, it's no Marvel, but that's okay...for now. To be honest, the mute growth of sales over the growth are quite concerning, but the last minute walk-ups show signs of hope for this one to breakout against the dwindling expectations. Currently, Thursday is on track for $1.66M compared to TMoUW (Things to Note: There were Early Access screenings that will be added in later). Admittedly, this number is a bit concerning as the big kick off to the Summer season. Friday is not looking much better with $6.07M compared to TMoUW. Even the theater capacities are rather light falling behind TMoUW. Granted, that is due to TFG having many more showtimes without as big of an audience to match it. Despite these rather cautious red flags, there is some confidence out there. Not only are sales for Saturday healthy, but this is a rom-com so it is prime for date night. Also, this is still a relatively "original" title so there is not usually a huge immediate fan rush. As long as the word of mouth is healthy, which it seems to be, the people will hear and more will come.

For non-IP horror, Tarot's ticket sales feel rather standard. Not only are these numbers low to start, but the growth throughout the week is just as uneven as always. Still, there is the usual "last-minute" walk-up surge, which is just par per the course. At this rate, Tarot is hoping to unleash a $.84M Thursday compared to Thanksgiving. Sadly, Friday is looking to be just as cursed with $2.69M compared to Thanksgiving. Can we be that surprised when marketing was extremely bare bones? Despite a slew of horror titles so far this year, none of broken out, so it is to no surprise the lightly marketed Tarot would break the curse. With minimal showings, the theater capacities are decent, with Theater 1, a more horror and walk-up friendly audience, showing stronger life of sales and demand. Even compared to Thanksgiving, Tarot is lagging behind in demand at Theater 2, which might signify a lack of adult interest. Clearly, Sony is dumping this movie with barebones effort put in to getting the word out, but as long as their budgets are low, with these numbers, we can't really complain.

Overall, this brings The Fall Guy to a?$8.48M?Wed+Th+F opening. For Tarot, it seems to be playing to mostly dead crowds with a Th+Fri?$3.53M?opening. After a light April, we really could've used a breakout here. If these numbers hold, The Fall Guy is looking at an opening of $23M, while Tarot will deal out a weekend of $9M. Not saying it is totally over for The Fall Guy, but it will need to do some serious recovery to make up for its $130M budget. On the other hand, Sony seems to be just fine with Tarot's paltry $8M price-tag. This Summer was always destined to be down, but the strikes really messed things up. Over course this start is no Guardians 3, but hopefully audiences branch out and find their next Barbenhiemer these next couple of months.

TLDR:

The Fall Guy:

Wednesday: $.75M

Thursday:?$1.66M

Friday:?$6.07M

Opening Day:?$8.48M

Tarot:

Thursday:?$.84M

Friday:?$2.69M

Opening Day:?$3.53M