The Fall of the Assad Regime: How it fell without a fight and How it Could Change the Middle East

Bashar al-Assad and his late father Hafezs' government collapsed after 13 years of bloody civil war last week, in which a little known rebel group known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (abbreviated HTS) broke out of their small enclave section in the northern border region of Idlib and conducted a Blitzkreig style offensive to Homs through the highway to Damascus, overwhelming Assads' troops and bypassing their barriers.?

Furthermore, Syria's allies like Hezbollah and Iran's IRGC did not have time to react because they had been significantly weakened due to Israelis incursion into Lebanon and Gaza since the October, 7 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas. This domino effect is splitting the Middle East into many parts and is becoming a more volatile situation with Turkey entering the fray and backing HTS and Syrian Free Army (another rebel faction who briefly coordinated with HTS) in the North, Israel attacking Syrian airbases around Syria (they say it is preemptive so as to not have the stockpiles enter HTS or ISIS (DAESH) hands). Furthermore, Israel is conducting a ground incursion in the South of Syria in the Golan Heights, which has been illegally occupied by Israel since the 6 Day War in 1967. They have entered and passed the UN buffer zone in that area and have taken Mount Heron, which would be a great strategic point for their radar arrays to overwatch Hezbollah in Lebanon and others in the area. Lastly, the Kurds are fighting in the East to hold onto their remaining territory, as the American bases in the south are still in control of vast oil fields.

Even though Assad has fallen, it seems as though the war will continue into a new phase in which various major power players such as the US and Turkey use their proxies against Iran and Russia, who came out to be the biggest losers in this conflict. Iran has poured millions into funding the IRGC and Hezbollah in the region, with their supply lines now being cut. Furthermore, Russia still has bases in Latakia in the west of the country and is mulling trying to recover them, however, the future looks bleak for the remaining troops. This cuts off supply lines to their African military contract campaigns, thus dwindling their resources and income to fund their Special Military Operation in Ukraine.

Turkey and Israel have come out on top as the major winners in this power play. Turkey, with their Islamic fundamentalist faction attempting to win the hearts and minds of the Syrian people this week as they promise not to destroy culture or bully or kill minorities such as Christians, Alawites, and Druiz. We will see in the near future if this rebrand of an Al-Qaeda linked terror group will pay off, actions speak louder than words. Furthermore, Israel has taken over more area in the Golan Heights and Mount Hermon, in which they are taking advantage of the fall of Assad and the chaos that is ensuing.

?One thing is for certain, the Syrian conflict has not ended and will continue, with major power brokers at odds with each other and using their proxy force against one another. One chapter has been closed, while another now opens.