"Fairly Optimistic" for the European Union? Eurobarometer 2024 says that's So.

I am often asked about #optimism, particularly in the context of large-scale political entities like the European Union.

The question, "Would you say that you are very #optimistic, fairly optimistic, fairly pessimistic, or very pessimistic about the future of the EU?" from the European Parliament's 2024 post-electoral Eurobarometer survey offers an intriguing snapshot of public sentiment across the European Union 's member states.

As someone who champions optimism, I find the results enlightening. They highlight where optimism flourishes and falters. It should be a call to action.

Optimism vs. Pessimism Across the EU

The EU Post-Electoral Survey 2024 results show a wide range of optimism and pessimism across the EU27 member states. (See Table Below)

#Luxembourg leads the optimistic pack, with 96% of respondents feeling optimistic about the EU's future. Following closely behind are #Belgium (90%), #Malta (73%), and #Hungary (59%). The people of these countries are embracing a relativlley optimistic outlook toward the future of the European Union.

The Most Pessimistic Countries

Conversely, some countries exhibit significant pessimism regarding the EU's future. Croatia stands out as the most pessimistic, with 80% of respondents expressing doubt about the Union's direction. Lithuania follows with 72% of its citizens being pessimistic, while Latvia and Slovakia both show 66% pessimism. Bulgaria also reflects high scepticism, with 66% of its respondents expressing pessimism about the EU's future. These figures suggest that citizens in these nations may feel disconnected from the broader European project or sceptical of the EU's ability to meet their needs. These countries' high levels of pessimism may stem from both economic challenges and concerns over the Union's handling of political and social issues.

Very Optimistic vs. Fairly Optimistic

One striking feature of the data is the relatively low percentage of respondents who identify as very optimistic about the future of the EU. Despite the high overall optimism in countries like Luxembourg and Belgium, almost all the optimism falls under the fairly optimistic category. In Luxembourg, 0% of respondents are very optimistic, even though 96% are generally optimistic. Similarly, in Belgium, just 1% of the population is very optimistic, despite 90% expressing optimism.

This is a noteworthy shift. Historically, there may have been periods when more people were very optimistic, particularly following EU expansions or significant economic recoveries. Today, the low levels of very optimistic sentiment suggest a more cautious and measured form of optimism. People believe in the EU's potential but await more concrete results before fully embracing a highly optimistic outlook.

Fairly Optimistic: The Dominant Sentiment

In most EU member states, optimism is fairly optimistic. #Germany has 65% of fairly optimistic respondents, Malta has 71%, and Cyprus is 61%. This suggests that while citizens are hopeful about the EU, they approach the future with a balance of optimism and realism. They may see potential, but they are also conscious of the economic and political challenges the Union faces.

In countries with higher levels of pessimism, a small percentage of optimistic respondents are also largely fairly optimistic. For example, in Croatia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Bulgaria, the few who are optimistic about the EU's future fall predominantly into the fairly optimistic category, again reflecting a cautious stance.

Low Levels of Very Optimistic Responses: A Trend?

The consistently low numbers of "very optimistic" responses are significant. This cautious optimism may reflect broader uncertainties within the EU and globally as economic volatility, political tensions, and environmental challenges weigh on public sentiment. Compared to past surveys, when the EU's progress may have sparked more enthusiastic optimism, today's results suggest that while hope remains, it is tempered by a desire for more tangible outcomes from the Union.

Public Pessimism v Private Optimism

This phenomenon also aligns with the Public Pessimism vs. Private Optimism trend identified in the 益普索 Global Trends 2024 report. Like many people worldwide, Europeans tend to express pessimism regarding the future of political institutions and broader societal challenges while maintaining personal optimism. This duality reflects the growing gap between public and private spheres, where people may feel uncertain about the EU's future yet remain hopeful about their lives and personal goals.

Call to Action

The Optimism Principle

At the heart of this conversation is the Optimism Principle formulated by Robert Masters AM LFCPRA and me—the belief that optimism provides the key to solving life's most pressing challenges. Optimism, especially in leadership and governance, empowers individuals and institutions to confront adversity with resilience and the expectation that better outcomes are possible. For the European Union, embracing this principle could instil confidence in the Union's future and motivate positive action at both personal and political levels. Infectiously optimistic leaders can inspire citizens to see beyond difficulties and work toward collective progress.

The Optimism Effect

Research from the The University of Sydney Business School validates the Optimism Effect—the measurable impact of optimism on productivity, innovation, and overall well-being. When nations or organisations embrace optimism, they are more likely to invest in long-term growth, research, and development, leading to more sustainable and prosperous outcomes. The EU has a unique opportunity to harness this effect by encouraging member states to adopt policies that foster economic innovation and social cohesion driven by shared optimism.

A Framework for a Positive National Narrative

Building a positive national narrative is essential for uniting countries around a hopeful and ambitious future. This framework encourages leaders to communicate clearly about successes, possibilities, and innovation potential. By focusing on what works well and reinforcing the strengths of the European project, the EU can inspire a more optimistic outlook among its citizens. A positive narrative boosts morale and promotes a collective sense of purpose, allowing member states to align around shared goals and values.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the 2024 Eurobarometer survey highlights that while many Europeans remain optimistic about the EU's future, few are overwhelmingly so. The low levels of "very optimistic" respondents suggest that citizens seek more concrete leadership and policies to inspire greater confidence. This represents an opportunity for EU policymakers and leaders to step up with bold, infectious optimism that can reignite enthusiasm and pave the way for a stronger, more united Europe.

What do you think contributes to low "very optimistic" responses? Could this cautious optimism be a reflection of changing public sentiment over time?

Read More: The Optimism Principle

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