A factual story of the MVI

?In June 2020, the then Chair of the Alliance of Small Island Developing States (AOSIS) H.E. Ambassador Lois Young, Permanent Representative of Belize to the United Nations sent a letter to the UN Secretary-General calling on the UN to assist with the production of the Multidimensional Vulnerability Index (MVI) as a complement to the GNI/capita to enable SIDS to access concessional financing beyond income graduation.

A copy of the letter was received by our UN Resident Coordinator Office in Samoa as the request for the MVI as referenced in the letter was anchored into the goals of the SAMOA Pathway.

A few days later, a note on a potential approach to develop the MVI was ready on my desk. I shared it with my fellow UN Resident Coordinators in SIDS and put together a team with all UNRCO Economists across the three regions - Caribbean, Atlantic and Indian Ocean and South China Sea (AIS) and the Pacific - to deepen the foundational analysis and design this new metric as a composite index drawing on exogenous variables only.

On 20 August 2020, the UN Secretary-General answered the call of AOSIS and acknowledged the work being done by the network of UN Resident Coordinators in SIDS.

Towards the end of 2020, the UN General Assembly negotiated and adopted Resolution A/RES/75/215 mandating the UN to develop the MVI and calling on the UN Secretary-General to report at the 76th UNGA on the progress.

In collaboration with Prof. Jeffrey Sachs & Sustainable Development Solutions Network Vice-President Guillaume Lafortune , Senior Economist Isabella Massa , we produced a first version of the MVI and published The Decade of Action and Small Island Developing States: Measuring and addressing SIDS’ vulnerabilities to accelerate SDG progress on 12 July 2021.

In 2022, a High Level Expert Panel co-chaired by Hon. Gaston Browne Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda and H.E. Erna Solberg, former Prime Minister of Norway was appointed by the President of the General Assembly to finalize the MVI and produce a report to the UNGA. Permanent Representative of Samoa to the UN and current Chair of AOSIS H.E. Ambassador Fatumanava-o-Upolu III Dr. Pa’olelei Luteru was a member of the Panel.

Four years on from the first attempt to get the MVI in place, the UN Member States are negotiating a draft Resolution on the report that the High-Level Panel released in 2023 compiling all work of the UN on the MVI including the first product of the UNRCO Samoa with the aim to get it adopted by the 78th UNGA.

The adoption and operationalization of the #MVI are at the heart of the Antigua and Barbuda Agenda for SIDS ABAS 2024-2034 endorsed at the 4th International Conference for SIDS #SIDS4 on 30 May in Antigua and Barbuda.

Beyond proud of the leadership of UN Resident Coordinators in SIDS & Heads of Agencies on the #MVI and equally grateful to colleagues in #UNDESA Sai Navoti & #AnyaThomas and in #OHRLLS Tishka Francis & Miniva Chibuye , ODI Emily Wilkinson Matthew Bishop (Dr) , IIED Tom Mitchell , Commonwealth Secretariat Ruth Kattumuri as well as to Tumasie Blair & the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) under #Belize, #Antigua&Barbuda and Samoa chairmanship.

I owe a great debt of gratitude to several Senior Economists and Strategic Planners in the UNRCOs including Stuart Davies , Olaf J. de Groot , Sébastien Vauzelle , William Evans , #YaimaDoimeadiosReyes, Oleksiy Ivaschenko , #ConstanceVigilence, Yanki Ukyab , #JanNemecek, Nick Wintle , Raymond Prasad , Travis Mitchell , Osmar Ferro , Pierre Fallavier , Kanako Mabuchi , Masato Abe , #ManuelOrtiz, #WakhileMkhonza, #JeremieDelage, Uzumma E. , #SergioPiresVieira, #SergioNovasTejero.

More granular facts are presented below:

1. Background

●????? Small Island Developing States (SIDS) were recognized as a special case both for their environment and development at the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (the Earth Conference).

●????? In 1994, SIDS held their first International Conference in Georgetown, Barbados and adopted the Barbados Programme of Action calling for a vulnerability index in recognition of their specific features that hinder their development regardless of their income per capita (see section 5).

5. Vulnerability index

113. ? Small island developing States, in cooperation with national, regional and international organizations and research centres, should continue work on the development of vulnerability indices and other indicators that reflect the status of small island developing States and integrate ecological fragility and economic vulnerability. Consideration should be given to how such an index, as well as relevant studies undertaken on small island developing States by other international institutions, might be used in addition to other statistical measures as quantitative indicators of fragility.

114.? Appropriate expertise should continue to be utilized in the development, compilation and updating of the vulnerability index. Such expertise could include scholars and representatives of international organizations that have at their disposal the data required to compile the vulnerability index. Relevant international organizations are invited to contribute to the development of the index. In addition, it is recommended that the work currently under way in the United Nations system on the elaboration of sustainable development indicators should take into account proposals on the vulnerability index.

●?????The Mauritius Strategy 2005-2014 as adopted at the 2nd International Conference for SIDS in Mauritius and the SIDS Accelerated Modalities of Action (SAMOA Pathway) 2014-2024 endorsed at the 3rd International Conference in Samoa in 2014 renewed the call for a metric to quantify the impact of vulnerabilities on SIDS’ development potentials. Despite a central focus on the MVI of all SIDS agendas since 1994, no work was undertaken at the UN until June 2020 when the Alliance of Small Island States, then chaired by Belize, wrote a letter to the Secretary-General asking for the MVI to be developed. A copy of the letter was sent to the UN Resident Coordinator in Samoa in recognition of the SAMOA Pathway call for the MVI and the need for the UN to take the lead in its production.

●????? Under the joint leadership of the UNRCs and UNRCO Economists in SIDS, the first MVI was developed as a composite index of exogenous variables to distinguish between features that are inherent to SIDS and increase susceptibility to losses and self-inflicted vulnerabilities. In his response letter on 20 August 2020, the UN Secretary-General informed AOSIS of the ongoing work of the UNRCs in SIDS to produce the Index (see last para here ).

●????? In December 2020, UN Resolution A/RES/75/215 called on the UN Secretary-General to lead the development of the Index for the benefit of SIDS and report back at the 76th UNGA in September 2021.

●????? Following up on A/RES/75/215, in 2021, #UNDESA led a process of consultations within the framework of the Inter-Agency Consultative Group (IACG) and drawing on the UNRCs’ MVI and other similar efforts including the Caribbean Development Bank’s and UNDP’s MVI and the Commonwealth Secretariat’s Universal Vulnerability Index (UVI). The MVI led by UNRCs received strong recognition by the SIDS and other Member States because of its selection of variables - all exogenous in nature and its simplicity. The UNRC’s MVI defined the special case of SIDS as characterized by a set of inherent (non self-inflicted) sources of vulnerability stemming from their smallness, remoteness and island geography, the latter leading to higher exposure to multi-annual, large-scale natural hazards and disasters.

●????? In his Report to the 76th UNGA (A/76/211 ), the UN Secretary-General presented the conclusions of the consultative process led by #UNDESA and recommended the MVI to be universalized, remain exogenous in nature and draw on a 3-pillar structure of economic, environmental and social vulnerabilities. He also recommended the establishment of a High-Level Expert Panel to finalize the MVI and submit it to the 77th UNGA for adoption.

●????? The Report of the UN S-G was welcomed by UN GA Resolution A/RES/76/203 which called on the President of the General Assembly to establish a High-Level Expert Panel led by two co-chairs and comprising a total of 12 members. In March 2022, the PGA established the High-Level Expert Panel of 12 esteemed professionals including 2 co-Chairs: Prime Minister Gaston Browne of Antigua and Barbuda and former Prime Minister of Norway Erna Solberg and tasked it to develop the report by the end of the 77th UNGA. The Permanent Representative of Samoa, Amb. Fatumanava Pa’olelei Luteru was also a member of the Panel.

●????? In Dec 2022, through UNGA Resolution A/RES/77/245 , the mandate of the Panel was extended until 30 June 2023. The Panel finalized and released the MVI Report in late August 2023 proposing a universal index combining measurement of structural vulnerabilities and resilience deficits and adding a Vulnerability-Resilience Country Profile as a monitoring tool.

●????? To build ownership over the MVI and facilitate its adoption, both UNGA Resolution A/RES/77/245 andA/RES/78/232 request the international community, the UN system and other multilateral organizations to test the Index and provide proposals for its use. The UN Secretary-General is asked to report back at the 79th UNGA on the results coming from the UN system wide testing. A/RES/77/245 called for two Member States to be appointed as co-facilitators of further intergovernmental consultations which have been selected and are now chairing the negotiations of the GA Resolution (Antigua and Barbuda and Portugal)

●????? The Draft GA Resolution is expected to be finalized by early July.??

●????? The MVI is meant to be a complement and an adjusting factor to the GNI/capita - not a standalone index- to highlight the volatility of the income per capita that countries’ inherent (structural / exogenous) features are causing.

●?????The Multilateral Development Banks committed at the Paris Summit to review access to concessional financing based on multidimensional vulnerability “taking into account the United Nations workstream in that regard” (para 4.c. of MDB’s Vision Statement) .??

●????? The World Bank Evolution roadmap as approved by the Development Committee on 12 Oct 2023 at the Marrakech Fall meetings of the IMF/WB also refers to vulnerability as a potential parameter to be considered in the eligibility criteria for access to concessional financing (art. 46).

●????? At #SIDS4, with UNOPS support, the Government of Antigua and Barbuda, UNDESA, the Caribbean Development Bank, the Global Environment Facility, and the Commonwealth Secretariat held a panel discussion over MVI-testing and usage in a side event on Wednesday, 29 May. ?

There is hope that, through piloting and testing, a strong MVI will be adopted and the eligibility to development cooperation will finally change criteria after 55 years since the introduction of the ODA. The MVI will adjust the GNI/capita to reflect the volatility of income and growth caused by inherent features that countries live with and which hinder progress and create high susceptibility to losses.