What Now For Labour: Fighting For The Soul of The Party in 2016.

THE POLITICAL landscape of the left has changed under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership of the Labour Party with some groups from the eighties re-emerging and some being formed. To some political commentators the Labour Party of the second decade of the 21st century is fast becoming 'factionalised' which threatens the Party's existence and future as a major player in Britain's liberal-democracy

This, however, is not a new phenomena.  Historically the Party has experienced divisions such as the split between the Bevanites (the Left) and the Gaitskellites  (the traditional Right) over issues such as public ownership and unilateralism in the fifties. It was not until the sixties under Harold Wilson that the Party became united and enjoyed a lengthy spell in government until 1970 and again from 1974 to 1979. With the election of Mrs Thatcher's  new-right Conservative government, the division opened up between the left-wing 'Bennites', the infiltration of the Militant Tendency in the eighties and the 'Moderates' which arguably split the Party, led to the formation of the breakaway SDP in 1981, and resulted in three severe election defeats in 1983, 1987 and 1992. As elder statesman Gerald Kaufman noted on Labour's socialist 1983 manifesto which committed the Party to mass nationalisation, withdrawal from the EEC and banning  nuclear weapons,  ''It was the longest suicide note in history''. The Party barely managed to achieve 8m votes!

It was not until 1989 that Labour became a  modernised united party under  Neil Kinnock, the late John Smith and the telegenic youthful leader Tony Blair who achieved electoral success in 1997 with a landside victory of 179 seats over the Conservatives. And repeated again in 2001 and 2005. Rebranded 'New Labour'  with meaningful and relevant policies to working people and their families, 'Middle-England' and minorities, Labour won big. Yet it lost in 2010 under Gordon Brown. Five years later under Ed Miliband it lost again and this time badly with David Cameron's Conservative Party unexpectedly achieving a 12 seat working majority.

Now the Party is at war with itself between the hard left 'Corbynistas' who dominate the membership and the moderates who make up the Parliamentary Labour Party and the mainstream of elected local government. But to some analysts this is an over-simplification as the crude divide obscures underlying factionalism between a number of groupings - some driven by ideological concerns others by pragmatism. So who are they and what do they stand for:

Inside Labour there's 'Progress', a long-standing group of moderates which acts as the voice of the 'Blairites'. Key figures include former Spin-Doctor Peter Mandelson, Liz Kendall MP ,  a leading moderniser who lost out badly in last year's leadership contest, Alan Miliburn, the Government's Social Mobility Czar,  and LGA Labour boss Coun. Nick Forbes. The group, under its leader Richard Angel, has restated its beliefs in ethical capitalism, equality and identity politics a round LGBT rights and is hostile to the Coybyn leadership which it views as a road to electoral oblivion. The 'hard left' within Labour's ranks regards the group with deep suspicion with its big business funding, annual conference,  covert neo-liberal ideology and 'hidden' membership base. To Labour's socialist-left, Progress is a ''party within a party'' and needs expunging.

'Labour First' is a long-established group of the Party's traditional centre/ right-wing with roots in the trade union movement and has its power base in the PLP: Key figures include John Mann MP, Jon Cruddas and Kevan Jones, the elected member for Durham North and former North East GMB Boss and Labour Chief Whip. It's a well organised and machine-based organisation, moderate, pragmatic and has  little faith in Jeremy Corbyn's leadership.

'Momentum',  a hard left grouping, was established last year by the young  idealistic supporters of Corbyn who aim to develop it as a grassroots campaigning social movement with a particular concern to boost voter registration and promote 'political education' amongst its members. For Labour's new members Corbyn is ''a symbol, a totem of belief'' according to the columnist Polly Toynbee. Yet its renewed membership is not reflective of Labour' core blue-collar vote. Professor Tim Bale's study reveals that 78% are midcle-class including its media spokesperson James Sneider, a former Liberal-Democrat activist. Based on extensive interviews with over 200 CLP Secretaries very few were prepared to leaflet or canvass in the 2015 Town Hall elections or the EU Referendum. Chaired by Jon Lansman, a former 'Bennite',  It's ideological fixation is rooted firmly in the Party's traditional socialist left. The faction is slowly developing a democratic structure and employs four youthful members of staff in London, but its funding remains unknown. Critics within the 220 strong PLP regard it as a far-left 'entryist' front organisation for revolutionary sects and cults such as Socialist Action,  Allied Workers Liberty, Left Unity and the Socialist Party- known to many as the 'Militant Tendency'. Although moderates want the organisation closed down, Momentum's leadership have reiterated that decision-making is restricted to Labour members only.

'Open Left' has recently been set up as the mouthpiece of the ''normal'' soft-left of the Party. Its aim is to rekindle the ideas and policies of former leader Ed Miliband with an emphasis on challenging inequality and climate change. The group, small in number, aims to reach out to those young members of the Labour Party who have become ''alienated'' from the hard-left Momentum.

Operating on the fringes of the Labour Party are a number of  far-left ''outsider groups''. The Socialist Party, formerly Militant, which caused mayhem in Labour throughout the eighties, is a Leninist, authoritarian  organisation which believes in the revolutionary road to socialism. Regarded as sinister by the security services, this group has managed to infiltrate several branches of Momentum and has recently called for the de-selection of mainstream Labour MPs such as Stella Creasy. Some of its members have joined Labour. Many more have registered as supporters paying the new ￡25 levy up from ￡3.

The ultra-left wing Socialist Workers Party (SWP) is a long standing Trotskyite organisation which is committed to the revolutionary overthrow of capitalism and parliamentary democracy. The Party has gone through a number of internal splits over rape allegations amongst its members and is active in some branches of Momentum. MI5, for some years, had been monitoring its activities. During the nineties Special branch  planted agents into the organisation regarding it as a minor security threat. Today its leadership has urged all its 4,000 members to sign to Labour and back Corbyn for the top job.

The controversial 'Stop The War Coalition' is best understood as being a pressure group rather than a Political Party, but retains close links with Labour at a national level. Once disregarded as a SWP front organisation, this 'social movement' managed to mobilise over 1 million  people to oppose the Iraq War in 2003. Until recently, the organisation has never been subject to serious scrutiny. Jeremy Corbyn was it's chairman for several years. Yet critics both inside and outside the Labour Party such as  author Nick Cohen ('What's Left', 2016)  see it as being pro-Putin, pro-Stalin and pro-Assad and has been dubbed by the satirical magazine, Private Eye, as 'Stop The West'!

Contentious social media postings condoning the Paris terrorist attacks and calling for a declaration of war on Israel has led many to label it as a dangerous anti-Semitic grouping - a view that has been reinforced by exposure of its far- left leadership made up of senior figures of the  Stalinist led Communist Party, George Galloway's Respect and the SWP. Both the Green Party and Peter Tatchell, the human rights campaigner, have disassociated themselves from 'Stop The War'. Labour moderates have condemned the organisation and have called on Labour to stop fund ing its activities.

With growing tensions within Labour over allegations of widespread anti-Semitism, 'entryism',  bullying on social media, alleged hate tweets, poor opinion poll ratings and outright antagonism towards Labour's leader from MPs, Welsh and Scottish Assembly members, MEPs, Peers, centre-left and centre-right councillors: the Party consolidated its electoral hold  in Britain's core cities like Newcastle, Bristol, London, Leeds and made sound gains in other parts of the country while losing in others - a mixed picture  in which Corbyn can derive a little comfort . Yet the Party's collapse in Scotland has profound implications whether Labour can win in 2020 with or without Corbyn. But the Party in the last month has declared war on itself with a major challenge to Corbyn's leadership from the relatively unknown  moderate Welsh MP Owen Smith.

Although several  Blairite MPs want Corbyn out on the grounds of his pure  leftist ideological inflexibility, for most it's his incompetence , lack of credibility, ability and poor people management skills. To his parliamentary colleagues Corbyn is no team player and has almost become a prisoner of his 'Praetorian Guard ': Special Advisors who display little real political judgement. Two-thirds of his Shadow Cabinet have resigned from their frontbench posts. Ordinary 'normal' Labour voters , alongside the three million 'swing' voters, are simply not convinced that 'Jeremy' can cut the mustard as a potential PM up against the credible Conservative one Theresa May. The latest ComRes Poll ,based on a large sample,  reveals that only 19% see him as the best Prime Minister. Only 13% view his as a ''strong leader''.  The latest You-Gov Poll puts Labour on 27% with the Tories 16 points ahead! Although the Party is slowly developing some radical and innovative policies on Education, mental health ,the economy, challenging inequality, and the Citizens Income (a policy long advocated by the Greens) voters of all parties distrust Corbyn over his weak stance on national security, dealing with armed terrorists, his non-commital support for the armed forces and his media appearances with despots.  To some observers Corbyn is more at home with gesture politics, rallies, demos preaching to the converted, shunning rigorous critical thought, which the bulk of the electorate regard as an irrelevance to their everyday lives. For others the Party leadership and  it's hard-left dominated membership is viewed as a 'Cult' or even a 'Sect' which to date has defied serious sociological analysis.

Some commentators have pointed out that the Party is engaged in a  bloody civil war  in which there will be only one winner. With Labour's rank and file membership now well over 500,000 (plus an additional 183,500 new registered supporters signed up within 48 hours) ,with significant far-left 'entryism'  which is very hard to detect, the  detailed survey evidence concludes that Corbyn will re-gain his 'mandate'  and win big over  Smith with over 62% of the vote in September 2016. In the short term a 'war of attrition' is likely. Failure to oppose the 'loony left' as noted by Pat Ainley, the respected  London left-wing educationalist, could further alienate millions of white-working class 'Brexit' voters who feel disconnected both from the liberal-left London centric-leadership of the party and from some aspects of the democratic system itself. As Ainley rightly warns, ''the time could be ripe for a fascist solution.''

The long-term outcome for Labour remains deeply uncertain. All the indications are that Labour will eventually split into two - one the 'Corbynista Hard Left' which dominates the CLPs, branches, and affiliated trades unions ,and the other a 'Social Democratic' grouping (with a 'Blairite' rump) which has its power-base in the PLP, the Lords, the European Parliament and local and regional government. Electorally, research by Professor John Curttes and Peter Kellner, notes that a Corbyn-McDonnell-Abbot led Labour Party - united or fractured will go down in history as Labour's worst general election defeat in contemporary history with the loss of over 100 Labour MPs with Tory gains in 'Middle England', a modest Lib-Dem revival, and huge Ukip inroads in the North, the Midlands, urban Wales and disadvantaged coastal towns from Blackpool to Boston. As Ainley notes, in the summer  2016 issue of 'Post-16 Educator', Corbny's failure to win a general election will leave ''former-industrial areas to UKIP which could establish the base that proto-fascism needs at street level.'' : an alarming prospect  with chilling implications for liberal-democracy.

Unless there is a serious re-alignment of the Centre-Left based on  a radical change to Britain's voting system - proportional representation - in the future, the country will experience at least a decade of Conservative government under the 'One-Nation' Theresa May.  Labour, to some commentators ,will cease to function as a political force in the second decade of the (21st. And  worst could simply die in the third.