FACES OF THE RACE- do NOT believe it's over as the media pollsters are at it again.

Harris and Trump are tied at 47%, according to a New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters.It's not that they are lying, secret red-necks, or mugwamps who can't make up their minds until they face the ballotbox, or even that the fraction in the middle are still in a muddle.

Two other polls from Sept. 19 show Harris with a slight edge: She’s up by four points (49%-45%) in a YouGov/Economist survey of registered voters, and two points (50%-48%) in Fox News’ likely voter survey, a small shift after Harris trailed by one point in an early August Fox poll and led by just two points in an early September YouGov poll.

What makes this interesting to those who say that the only poll that matters is on Cup Day with the final decision going to the Trump selected Supreme Court early next year after hundreds of delayed declarations to decide in his favour is a very dead heat on 270 Electoral College votes after Harris repeats Clinton's losing majority.

Once again the day to day variations in piblic opinion profiles show that VUCAT is the current big winner- (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity and Turbulence) - with Murdoch's Fox scaring Reds to the polls with Harris two points ahead, Rasmussen saying it Harris who is two points ahead and the New York Times/Sienna saying it a tie. For the record outlier the GWU National Multi Candidate shows Harris with a five point lead.

Take the hidden agenda test. -- cat-women are more Kamala and dog lovers are Trumpers? Dog and Cat eaters are invaders and Gun Lovers are defenders? Rural States are Red, Urban are blue and the ten in the middle are purple? Border Forcers are Red and Border Jumpers are Blue? White young men are Red and bright young women are Blue?

Clearly stereotypes do not reflect the critical divide- "She'll be' Rights' are more likely to move toward Harris over Hanrahan's "We'll all be Doomed" -(youth over age). -Walz over Vance ( car fixers vs Ubers) and birds and bubs Vs blokes who want their kids back. This is not a sampling error problem but proof of a deep and growing generational divide between giving yesterday's men somewhere to park their grievances in the face of rapid reconstruction of identity.

The presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is close to a dead heat weeks before the election, according to a string of post-debate surveys that found voters believe Harris outperformed Trump in last week’s debate—but not enough to significantly shift the race in her favour.

So why, other than media owner's placing lead in the saddles, are we getting three different winners from all this? It comes down to a confusion of sample errors and the bookies gender and racial bias- with older, better educated women and coloured urban voters likely to vote Harris and younger, less educated black men and rural communities equally liking Trump.

Key Facts

Harris and Trump are tied at 47%, according to a New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released Sept. 19 that found the majority of voters in every demographic gave positive reviews of Harris’ debate performance, with 67% overall saying she did well, compared to 40% who said the same about Trump (Trump led Harris 48%-47% in Times/Siena surveys from early September and late July).

Two other polls from Sept. 19 show Harris with a slight edge: She’s up by four points (49%-45%) in a YouGov/Economist survey of registered voters, and two points (50%-48%) in Fox News’ likely voter survey, a small shift after Harris trailed by one point in an early August Fox poll and led by just two points in an early September YouGov poll.

Harris led Trump by three points, 48% to 45%, with 8% undecided, in a new Forbes/HarrisX survey of 3,018 registered voters taken Sept. 11-13 (margin of error 1.8), after the two were tied at 45% with 10% undecided in a pre-debate HarrisX survey of 1,003 registered voters taken Sept. 9-10 (margin of error 3.1).

In a Monmouth University poll of 803 registered voters taken Sept. 11-15 (margin of error 3.9), 49% said they will definitely or probably vote for Harris, while 44% said the same about Trump—results that nearly mirror the group’s August survey that found Harris leading 48% to 43%.

Harris leads Trump 51% to 45% in Morning Consult’s likely voter survey taken Sept. 13-15, a three-point increase since before the Sept. 10 debate and her widest lead yet in the group’s weekly surveys (Harris led 50% to 45% among likely voters in a one-day Morning Consult poll taken Sept. 11, immediately after the debate).

Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken days following the debate on Sept. 11-13, essentially unchanged from her six-point leads with likely voters in late August and early August ABC/Ipsos surveys—even though 63% of Americans said Harris won last week’s debate.

Also after the debate, Harris led by a five-point margin—47% to 42%—in a two-day Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters that closed Sept. 12, (in late August, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Harris with a 45%-41% advantage).

Pre-debate surveys found Harris’ polling surge appeared to be plateauing, including a NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 that found Harris led Trump 49% to 48%, down from a three-point lead in August, though she still led him by three points, 51% to 48%, among those who say they definitely plan to vote.

Harris was up by two points, 47% to 49%, in a Sept. 3-4 Emerson College survey of likely voters, a slight decline from her four-point lead in Emerson’s August poll.

In a Wall Street Journal poll released Aug. 29, Harris led Trump 48%-47% head-to-head, marking the first time in over a year Trump has trailed in a Journal survey—a reversal from Trump’s 49%-47% edge a month prior (the poll surveyed registered voters from Aug. 24-28, margin of error 2.5 points).

The vice president led Trump by five points—48%-43%—among likely voters in a Suffolk/USA Today poll taken Aug. 25-28, a massive shift from Trump’s 41%-38% lead over President Joe Biden shortly after Biden’s rough debate performance in June (the latest survey’s margin of error is 3.1 points

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