F-distribution and its Application in Hypothesis Testing
Rany ElHousieny, PhD???
Generative AI ENGINEERING MANAGER | ex-Microsoft | AI Solutions Architect | Generative AI & NLP Expert | Proven Leader in AI-Driven Innovation | Former Microsoft Research & Azure AI | Software Engineering Manager
Understanding the F-distribution
The F-distribution is a probability distribution that arises frequently as the null distribution of a test statistic, particularly in the analysis of variance (ANOVA), the F-test, and in comparing variances.
It is used when comparing two samples to find out if they come from populations with equal variances. The shape of the F-distribution is positively skewed and depends on two parameters: degrees of freedom for the numerator and degrees of freedom for the denominator.
Variance: Definition and Concept
Variance is a statistical measure that represents the degree of spread in a dataset or the amount of variation from the average (mean). In simpler terms, it measures how much the numbers in a data set differ from the mean of the data set. A high variance indicates that the data points are spread out over a wider range of values, while a low variance signifies that they are clustered closely around the mean.
Mathematical Expression for Variance
Sample Variance vs Population Variance
The formula above calculates the population variance, assuming that the data set represents the entire population. However, when working with samples (a subset of a population), we typically use sample variance. The sample variance adjusts the denominator to consider the fact that we're working with a sample rather than the entire population. This adjustment, known as Bessel's correction, reduces the denominator by 1, resulting in the sample variance formula:
Why Bessel's Correction?
The rationale behind Bessel's correction (using n-1 instead of n) for sample variance is to provide an unbiased estimator of the population variance. When estimating population parameters from a sample, there's an inherent bias because we're using the sample mean  ̄x instead of the true population mean. By dividing by n?1 rather than n, we compensate for this bias, making the sample variance an unbiased estimator of the true population variance.
"ddof" in Variance Calculation
The term ddof stands for "delta degrees of freedom." In the variance calculation method .var(ddof=1) used in many statistical software packages like pandas in Python, the ddof parameter allows you to adjust the degrees of freedom. Setting ddof=1 applies Bessel’s correction, ensuring the calculation is for sample variance. If ddof=0, the calculation would return the population variance (assuming the data set represents the entire population).
In summary, variance is a fundamental statistical measure used to quantify the degree to which individual data points in a dataset deviate from the mean value, and understanding whether to use sample or population variance (reflected in the use of ddof) is crucial in statistical analyses and interpretation.
Hypothesis Testing Overview
Hypothesis testing is a statistical method used to make inferences or draw conclusions about a population based on sample data. It involves making an initial assumption (a hypothesis), and then testing whether this hypothesis holds true based on the sample data. The two key types of hypotheses are:
The outcome of a hypothesis test is usually determined through a p-value, which measures the probability of observing the data, or something more extreme, under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true. If the p-value is less than a predefined significance level (commonly 0.05), the null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternative.
Applying Hypothesis Testing to F-distribution
The F-distribution often arises when comparing the variances of two different populations and is used in the analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the F-test.
Scenario: Comparing Variances with the F-test
Let's consider you want to test if the variances of two normal populations are equal. The F-test can be useful in this scenario.
Steps for the F-test:
# Calculate the variances
var_pre = df_pre['time'].var(ddof=1)
var_post = df_post['time'].var(ddof=1)
# Calculate F statistic (test statistic)
F = max(var_post, var_pre) / min(var_post, var_pre)
Example of Using the F-distribution
Scenario: You are a data scientist working for an e-commerce company. Recently, the user interface team redesigned the product page, and they want to know if the new design has made any difference in the average time users spend on that page. They provide you with two datasets: one containing the time (in seconds) users spent on the product page before the redesign (pre_redesign_times.csv), and the other containing the time users spent after the redesign (post_redesign_times.csv). Using the F-distribution, can you determine if there's a statistically significant difference in the variances of user engagement times between the two designs? Write a Python program to conduct this hypothesis test, compute the F-statistic, calculate the associated p-value, and draw a conclusion based on a significance level of 0.05. Display your findings visually to make it comprehensible for the UI team.
In the given scenario, you're tasked with determining if there's a statistically significant difference in the variances of user engagement times on a product page before and after a UI redesign. This is a perfect use case for an F-test since it compares the variances of two independent samples.
Steps for Hypothesis Testing:
To generate the .csv files and conduct the F-test in Google Colab, you will first create the CSV files using the following code snippet, and then proceed with loading these files into your analysis. Since Google Colab doesn't persist files across sessions, if you want to work with these files in the future, you might consider saving them to Google Drive. Below, I outline the steps, including how to save to and load from Google Drive:
1. Setting Up and Saving Files in Google Colab
First, let's generate and save the CSV files in the Colab environment:
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
# Number of samples
n_samples = 1000
# Simulating engagement times
mean_pre, std_dev_pre = 300, 50
mean_post, std_dev_post = 310, 60
pre_redesign_times = np.random.normal(mean_pre, std_dev_pre, n_samples)
post_redesign_times = np.random.normal(mean_post, std_dev_post, n_samples)
# Save to CSV
df_pre = pd.DataFrame({'time': pre_redesign_times})
df_post = pd.DataFrame({'time': post_redesign_times})
df_pre.to_csv('pre_redesign_times.csv', index=False)
df_post.to_csv('post_redesign_times.csv', index=False)
print("CSV files created successfully!")
2. Saving Files to Google Drive for Persistent Storage
To save the CSV files to Google Drive:
from google.colab import drive
drive.mount('/content/drive')
# Specify your own path in Google Drive
path = '/content/drive/MyDrive/'
# Save files to Google Drive
df_pre.to_csv(path + 'pre_redesign_times.csv', index=False)
df_post.to_csv(path + 'post_redesign_times.csv', index=False)
print("CSV files saved to Google Drive successfully!")
3. Loading Files from Google Drive in Future Sessions
In a new Colab session, you can load the files directly from Google Drive:
from google.colab import drive
drive.mount('/content/drive')
# Adjust the path according to where you saved the files in Google Drive
path = '/content/drive/MyDrive/'
df_pre = pd.read_csv(path + 'pre_redesign_times.csv')
df_post = pd.read_csv(path + 'post_redesign_times.csv')
# Now df_pre and df_post are loaded and can be used for further analysis.
Now, let's check df_pre
time
0 317.087799
1 393.808542
2 347.521192
3 271.154817
4 255.079266
... ...
995 275.604430
996 407.865411
997 269.714254
998 337.104769
999 314.964629
1000 rows × 1 columns
And df_post
time
0 388.104477
1 403.690672
2 311.920249
3 264.794928
4 337.598329
... ...
995 252.570945
996 330.627273
997 307.080859
998 311.967820
999 264.490280
1000 rows × 1 columns
4. Conducting the F-test
Step1: Calculate Variances
# Calculate the variances
var_pre = df_pre['time'].var(ddof=1)
var_post = df_post['time'].var(ddof=1)
print(f'var_pre = {var_pre}, var_post = {var_post}')
var_pre = 2531.3317175906764, var_post = 3829.6227455764333
Understanding how the variance is calculated and interpreted is crucial, especially when applying statistical tests like the F-test, which relies on the variance of datasets to determine the significance of differences between group variances. The correct application of degrees of freedom (ddof) in calculating sample variance ensures that statistical inferences, such as comparing pre- and post-redesign user engagement variances, are accurate and reliable.
Step 2: Calculate F statistic (test statistic)
# Calculate F statistic (test statistic)
F = max(var_post, var_pre) / min(var_post, var_pre)
print(F)
1.5128885396424738
Test Statistic:The F-statistic is calculated as the ratio of the two sample variances ((s1)^2 and (s2)^2). Ensure that the larger variance is in the numerator to get an F-statistic greater than or equal to 1. F=(s2)^2/(s1)^2
Step3: Degree of Freedom (fd)
The degrees of freedom correspond to the number of independent observations in each sample minus one. In this scenario, both samples have 1000 observations, so their degrees of freedom are both 999.
dfn = df_pre['time'].size - 1 # Degrees of freedom for the numerator
dfd = df_post['time'].size - 1 # Degrees of freedom for the denominator
print(f'dfn = {dfn} \ndfd = {dfd}')
dfn = 999
dfd = 999
Step 4: P-Value
# Calculate the p-value
p_value = 1 - stats.f.cdf(F, dfn, dfd)
The Full Python Program to Conduct the F-test
import pandas as pd
from scipy import stats
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
from google.colab import drive
drive.mount('/content/drive')
# Adjust the path according to where you saved the files in Google Drive
path = '/content/drive/MyDrive/'
# Load the datasets
df_pre = pd.read_csv(path + 'pre_redesign_times.csv')
df_post = pd.read_csv(path + 'post_redesign_times.csv')
# Calculate the variances
var_pre = df_pre['time'].var(ddof=1)
var_post = df_post['time'].var(ddof=1)
# Compute the F-statistic
F = max(var_pre, var_post) / min(var_pre, var_post)
# Degrees of freedom
dfn = len(df_pre) - 1 if var_pre > var_post else len(df_post) - 1
dfd = len(df_post) - 1 if var_pre > var_post else len(df_pre) - 1
# Calculate the p-value
p_value = 1 - stats.f.cdf(F, dfn, dfd)
# Compute the critical value for alpha = 0.05
alpha = 0.05
F_critical = stats.f.ppf(1 - alpha, dfn, dfd)
# Visualization
x = np.linspace(0, 3, 1000)
y = stats.f.pdf(x, dfn, dfd)
plt.plot(x, y, label="F-distribution PDF")
plt.axvline(F, color="black", linestyle="--", label=f'F-statistic = {F:.2f}')
plt.axvline(F_critical, color="red", linestyle="--", label=f'Critical value = {F_critical:.2f}')
plt.fill_between(x, y, where=(x > F_critical), color='lightgrey', label="Rejection region")
plt.annotate(f'p-value = {p_value:.2e}', (2.1, 1), color="blue")
plt.title("F-distribution with F-statistic")
plt.xlabel("F value")
plt.ylabel("Probability density")
plt.legend()
plt.show()
# Conclusion
if p_value < alpha:
print("Reject the null hypothesis: The variances of user engagement times are significantly different.")
else:
print("Fail to reject the null hypothesis: No significant difference in variances detected.")
Let's break down this diagram's components:
领英推荐
Interpretation of the diagram:
Thus, you reject the null hypothesis, concluding that there's a statistically significant difference in the variances of user engagement times between the two designs.
Degree of Freedom (df):
Refers to the number of independent values or quantities which can be assigned to a statistical distribution. In the context of the F-distribution, there are typically two degrees of freedom involved: one for the numerator (df1) and one for the denominator (df2). The degrees of freedom are often related to the sample size. For example, in an ANOVA test, the degrees of freedom for the numerator are related to the number of groups being compared and the degrees of freedom for the denominator are related to the total sample size minus the number of groups. The shape of the F-distribution depends on these degrees of freedom.
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from scipy.stats import f
# Define a range for the x-axis (F values)
x = np.linspace(0, 3, 1000)
# Define the different degrees of freedom to be plotted
dfs = [(1,1), (2,1), (5,2), (10,1), (100,100)]
# Plot the F-distribution for each degree of freedom
for df in dfs:
y = f.pdf(x, df[0], df[1])
plt.plot(x, y, label=f'd1={df[0]}, d2={df[1]}')
plt.title('F-distribution with Different Degrees of Freedom')
plt.xlabel('F value')
plt.ylabel('Probability density')
plt.legend()
plt.grid(True)
plt.ylim(0, 2.5)
plt.xlim(0, 3)
plt.show()
This diagram visualizes the probability density function (PDF) of the F-distribution for various degrees of freedom. Let's break it down:
Degrees of Freedom (df):
The shape of the F-distribution is governed by two degrees of freedom parameters, often denoted d1 and d2.
Observations from the Diagram:
Why does it vary by df?
The F-distribution is derived from the ratio of two chi-squared distributions (which are themselves governed by degrees of freedom). The variation in the shape of the F-distribution with changing degrees of freedom arises due to the underlying properties of these chi-squared distributions.
In summary, the degrees of freedom effectively represent the amount of information or data underlying the variance estimates, and this, in turn, influences the shape and properties of the F-distribution.
Two-Tails vs One-Tail
The F-test is primarily used to compare the variances of two populations. It does this by taking the ratio of two sample variances, leading to an F-distribution under the null hypothesis that both populations have equal variances.
Let's first discuss the tails in the context of the F-test:
1. Right-tailed F-test:
- You use a right-tailed test when you want to determine if the variance of the first population is greater than the variance of the second population.
- Rejection region: The right (upper) tail of the F-distribution.
The plot shows:
The code to generate this graph at the end of the article
2. Left-tailed F-test:
- This is when you want to determine if the variance of the first population is less than the variance of the second population.
- Rejection region: The left (lower) tail of the F-distribution.
In this plot:
The code to generate this graph at the end of the article
3. Two-tailed F-test:
- Used when you're simply interested in determining if the two variances are unequal, without a specific direction in mind.
- Rejection regions: Both tails of the F-distribution.
In this plot:
The code to generate this diagram at the end of the article
Coding Differences:
1. Right-tailed:
p_value = 1 - f.cdf(f_stat, df1, df2)
2. Left-tailed:
p_value = f.cdf(f_stat, df1, df2)
3. Two-tailed:
p_value = 2 * min(f.cdf(f_stat, df1, df2), 1 - f.cdf(f_stat, df1, df2))
### Diagrams:
Unfortunately, I can't create live plots directly, but I'll describe what the diagrams would look like:
1. Right-tailed:
- The F-distribution curve would be plotted, and the area to the right of the critical F-value would be shaded, representing the rejection region.
2. Left-tailed:
- The F-distribution curve would be plotted, but this time the area to the left of the critical F-value would be shaded, indicating the rejection region.
3. Two-tailed:
- The F-distribution curve would again be plotted, and both tails would have shaded areas, each representing the rejection region.
In all diagrams, the computed F-statistic would be marked on the curve, allowing you to visually compare it to the rejection region(s) and determine whether to reject the null hypothesis.
It's worth noting that the F-distribution is not symmetric. This means that for a given significance level, the critical values for the left and right tails won't be simple reciprocals. You'd need to look up or calculate them separately.
When is the Largest variance over the smaller variance when calculating F?
For the F-test, the general formula is:
Now, to ensure that the F-value is always greater than or equal to 1 (since F-distribution values less than 1 are symmetric around the value of 1), it's common to place the larger variance in the numerator and the smaller variance in the denominator. This ensures the test is always right-tailed.
When doing a two-tailed test, you compare the computed F-value to both the upper and lower critical values. However, because of the nature of the F-distribution, this isn't simply a matter of looking at both tails in the manner you might with a t-test. Instead:
To sum it up: For a two-tailed F-test, you typically place the larger variance in the numerator to ensure the F-value is >= 1. You then compare this F-value against the upper critical value from the F-distribution. If it's greater, you conclude that the variances are significantly different at the given significance level. The nature of the F-distribution ensures this approach is valid for testing inequality in both directions.
Conclusion
By conducting the F-test and interpreting the F-statistic and p-value, we can determine whether the redesign had a significant impact on the variability of the time users spend on the product page. This information, combined with other metrics like mean engagement time, can offer a comprehensive view of the redesign's effectiveness.
Additional Readings:
Code for right-tail plot:
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from scipy.stats import f
# Given data (these are example values)
df1 = 10 # degrees of freedom for sample 1
df2 = 10 # degrees of freedom for sample 2
alpha = 0.05 # significance level
# Compute critical F-value for right-tailed test
f_critical = f.ppf(1-alpha, df1, df2)
# Example F-value (for illustration purposes, you'd compute this from your samples)
f_value = 2.5
# Compute p-value
p_value = 1 - f.cdf(f_value, df1, df2)
# Plot
x = np.linspace(0, 5, 1000)
y = f.pdf(x, df1, df2)
plt.plot(x, y, label="F-distribution")
plt.fill_between(x, y, where=(x > f_critical), color='red', label="Rejection Region")
plt.axvline(f_value, color='blue', linestyle="--", label=f"F-value = {f_value:.2f}")
plt.axvline(f_critical, color='green', linestyle="-.", label=f"Critical Value = {f_critical:.2f}")
plt.legend()
plt.title("Right-tailed F-test")
plt.xlabel("F value")
plt.ylabel("Probability density")
plt.annotate(f"p-value={p_value:.4f}", xy=(f_value, 0), xytext=(f_value-0.5, 0.1),
arrowprops=dict(facecolor='black', arrowstyle='->'))
plt.show()
Code for left-tailed diagram
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from scipy.stats import f
# Given data (these are example values)
df1 = 10 # degrees of freedom for sample 1
df2 = 10 # degrees of freedom for sample 2
alpha = 0.05 # significance level
# Compute critical F-value for left-tailed test
f_critical = f.ppf(alpha, df1, df2)
# Example F-value (for illustration purposes, you'd compute this from your samples)
f_value = 0.5
# Compute p-value
p_value = f.cdf(f_value, df1, df2)
# Plot
x = np.linspace(0.1, 5, 1000)
y = f.pdf(x, df1, df2)
plt.plot(x, y, label="F-distribution")
plt.fill_between(x, y, where=(x < f_critical), color='red', label="Rejection Region")
plt.axvline(f_value, color='blue', linestyle="--", label=f"F-value = {f_value:.2f}")
plt.axvline(f_critical, color='green', linestyle="-.", label=f"Critical Value = {f_critical:.2f}")
plt.legend()
plt.title("Left-tailed F-test")
plt.xlabel("F value")
plt.ylabel("Probability density")
plt.annotate(f"p-value={p_value:.4f}", xy=(f_value, 0.1), xytext=(f_value+0.5, 0.2),
arrowprops=dict(facecolor='black', arrowstyle='->'))
plt.show()
The code to generate the two-sided
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from scipy.stats import f
# Given data (these are example values)
df1 = 10 # degrees of freedom for sample 1
df2 = 10 # degrees of freedom for sample 2
alpha = 0.05 # significance level
# Compute critical F-values for both tails
f_critical_left = f.ppf(alpha/2, df1, df2)
f_critical_right = f.ppf(1 - alpha/2, df1, df2)
# Example F-value (for illustration purposes, you'd compute this from your samples)
f_value = 1.5
# Compute p-value
if f_value < f_critical_left:
p_value = f.cdf(f_value, df1, df2)
elif f_value > f_critical_right:
p_value = 1 - f.cdf(f_value, df1, df2)
else:
p_value = 1
# Plot
x = np.linspace(0.1, 5, 1000)
y = f.pdf(x, df1, df2)
plt.plot(x, y, label="F-distribution")
plt.fill_between(x, y, where=(x < f_critical_left) | (x > f_critical_right), color='red', label="Rejection Regions")
plt.axvline(f_value, color='blue', linestyle="--", label=f"F-value = {f_value:.2f}")
plt.axvline(f_critical_left, color='green', linestyle="-.", label=f"Critical Value Left = {f_critical_left:.2f}")
plt.axvline(f_critical_right, color='green', linestyle="-.")
plt.legend()
plt.title("Two-tailed F-test")
plt.xlabel("F value")
plt.ylabel("Probability density")
plt.annotate(f"p-value={p_value:.4f}", xy=(f_value, 0.1), xytext=(f_value+0.5, 0.2),
arrowprops=dict(facecolor='black', arrowstyle='->'))
plt.show()