Eyes Only BRIEFING PAPER FOR :-Vladimir Vladimovic Putin VVP

FILE SUBMITTED TO:-

Prof. ANDREW MORAN, London Metropolitan University,

Prepared by:- Barrington Roy Schiller [email protected]

01-JUL-2015 11:06PM. SUBMISSION ID 45974499 ,

WORD COUNT 2359 , CHARACTER COUNT 12694

1.?????Subject: Arguments for and against expanding intervention beyond the Crimea

?a.?????Background:

Since the late 1980s and the end of the so-called cold war,?NATO and the European Union have been following the USA foreign policy of locating troops ever-closer to the borders of the Russian Federation (RF) and must be seen as a threat to the leadership and internal security of the RF This was made possible by the “perestroika” and “glasnost” policies of the which resulted in the dissolution of the Soviet Union 1. and the dissolution of COMECON ?????( Warsaw pact )?and which must now be seen to have been against the interests of the RF and which has resulted in a loss of influence of the?RF and morale in the population. ?The abandonment of the Hungarian border defences with Austria 2.??and the reunification of Germany was followed by their later inclusion into the European Union, ?together with the former soviet states of the?Czech Republic,?Slovakia (formerly Czechoslovakia ),?Estonia,?Hungary, Latvia,?Lithuania,?Poland, , and?Slovenia. The addition of Bulgaria and Romania to the EU, as well as the Balkan expansion of the ex- Yugoslavian states, has seen the Russian federation having EU/NATO states closer to Moscow than ever before. During the cold war period, the States of Austria, Sweden and Finland had been neutral, but now they are now also members of the European Union, joined by Cyprus and Malta 3 ?

This encroachment towards RF borders by NATO has made it clear to the Duma, the GRU, (Main Intelligence Directorate) FSB and the SVR4 of the RF that action needed to be taken to regain the honour and dignity of the RF, by all means, necessary in order to ward off internal turmoil similar to that of the so-called “Arab Spring” and Ukrainian Maidan. ?The conflict with Georgia in 2008 brought about by our opposition to Georgia’s approaches to NATO for membership has already resulted in the RF strengthening ties to the “frozen conflict” territories of?Transnistria, , South Ossetia and Abkhazia with stronger diplomatic links being formed.?5

The ousting of the legitimately elected President Yanukovych of Ukraine in the Ukrainian “putsch”of 2014 made it necessary for the RF to support Ethnic Russians in Crimea and in eastern Ukraine, and in the referendum held in Crimea, the people of the Crimea Oblast chose to rejoin the RF in a reversal of the decision of the Soviet Supreme Presidium of February 19, 1954, signed by Nikita Khrushchev.

?Analysis

Based upon this background, our analysis will look at??“Arguments for and against expanding Russian intervention beyond the Crimea”.?In as much as the interest of the peoples of Crimea were important in Crimea Oblast returning to the RF, the Geopolitical interests of the RF must also be considered, and the security of the warm water port in Sevastopol, home of the Black sea fleet, must be preserved to operate without hindrance at all times .as an integral part of the security of the RF and our influence in the Mediterranean.?The recently discovered oil and gas interests in the Crimea region of the Black sea must also not be allowed to fall under foreign influence.

The coup d’état, ?undertaken in Kyiv, Ukraine, ?leading to the removal of President Yanukovych on February 22 2014, put the interests of the RF and our Sevastopol, black-sea,warm-water port at risk until on March 6 2014, Crimea voted to formally become part of the RF ?7 The reaction of the people of the RF showed clearly that they felt that the actions of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin were heroic in reversing the trend of former the Soviet Union states falling under the influence of an expanding EU and an aggressive NATO, whose clear intent is to influence the internal affairs of the RF and to spread their capitalistic and liberal values and support RF opposition parties.. The EU recognition of the state of Kosovo 8, based upon the wishes of the majority Albanian population, to become independent and against the wishes of Serbia (amongst others) sets a precedent for Crimea to regain its historical heritage within the RF, and it is hypocritical for “the west “to condone the Albanians in Kosovo yet condemn the Ethnic Russians in Crimea.

Sanctions brought in against the RF have had little or no long-term effect on us as they were mainly aimed at those close to V. V. P in an attempt to cause dissent, but this shows a lack of understanding of the Russian psyche and the Import ban on goods from the EU has enabled us to introduce the import Substitution regulations to boost the economic development of the RF and to create a dominant discourse that sanctions are responsible for lack of foreign foodstuffs. Due to our oil currently being priced in dollars, a low Ruble exchange rate currently works to our advantage despite targets set out in our budget currently not being met.

Following the reintegration of Crimea Oblast into the RF, our support of the people of the people’s republic of Donetsk and the Lugansk parliamentary republic who had requested assistance in the Donbas (Donetsk/ Lugansk)?eastern region of Ukraine has drawn international attention away from Crimea and the Russian media has successfully “informed “ the Russian population of the Fascist Ukrainian actions against the ethnic Russian population in that region bringing about civic nationalism which ensures the support of the Russian people to follow the leadership.

2???????Recommended Action (Points FOR expanding Russian intervention beyond the Crimea ?

a) First and foremost, a process of “Plausible deniability “ must be maintained in regard to denying any?RF or VVP intervention regarding expansion or current intervention in Crimea or Eastern Ukraine to the outside world.

b) ?V. VP. Should appear at all times to be distancing himself from the negative “actions” of any “pro-Russian militants” in Eastern Ukraine and should be seen as supporting the agreements made under the “Normandy format” between representatives of Ukraine, Russia, the USA and the EU in which measures leading to a de-escalation of the conflict were agreed initially in Geneva and then in the Minsk agreements.

c)?Should militants undertake actions bringing the RF into disrepute, such as those of the kidnapping of monitors from the OSCE (the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe), an even-handed statesmanship stature should be taken to negotiate the release of such prisoners.

d) The RF must continue to use all soft power at its disposal following on from the successful winter Olympics, and Grand Prix in Sochi and must show a positive liberal face to the populations of the world with such events as the Eurovision so as to appear willing to engage and integrate with western liberal bourgeois ideals.

e) Closer cooperation with China and in particular with the “Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank “(AIIB)?will show the West that the RF ?is not dependent upon western trade or the Bretton Woods finance system and the dollar and dissuade any further discussions regarding removal of the “SWIFT” bank transfer system.

? These foundation actions will clearly show the West that the RF can not be dictated to and any resistance to Western liberal values will be supported by the majority of the Russian people and their support for VVP in consolidating our grip on Crimea and further actions towards linking the current borders of the RF with Transnistria. This will involve militants initially and gradually expanding into an area from Kharkiv to Odesa in what is currently Southern Ukraine but which was earlier known as “Novorossiya”?before Novorossiya was incorporated into the Ukrainian People’s Republic?due to the majority of the population at that time being ethnic Ukrainians. The Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics officially reestablished the confederation of Novorossiya as a new federal state, and both the Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic have officially signed agreements to be integrated. ?

Senior administrators from the Krasnodar region who now have experience in building a Russian style administration in Crimea must be trained to administer the territory of Novorossiya while military trainers from Rostov am Don should continue to support Chechen and Serbian militants engaged in the military aspect of the militant support.

As the attempt to create a land route from the RF to Crimea has proven more complicated and met with more resistance than initially expected in securing Mariupol, this will result in a delay, so the existing plans to build a Kerch bridge or tunnel to connect the RF with Crimea should be revisited to show the commitment of the RF to maintaining Crimea as part of the RF. The RF must consider that at some point, the Kyiv Junta may rescind the agreement we have with Ukraine to use Ukrainian roads to supply our Black sea fleet and Transnistria if we continue to state that the Budapest declaration of 1995 was not ratified.

Liberal democracies are extremely vocal but weak of action. They are financially poor, and their electorate has no will for conflict. Their populations are easily distracted by the latest “news “ and almost seem to have forgotten Crimea and have believed that the Ukraine conflict is a “civil war” between waring Ukrainians. If they are focusing on Ukraine at all, they are focusing on Donbas and Lugansk, as most have already forgotten our liberation of?Georgian territories in 2008.?

2.?????Cautionary Notes (Points AGAINST expanding Russian intervention beyond the Crimea)

a)?????With the USA pivoting away from Europe and more towards Asia, we expect only token gestures as justification for NATO forces to follow through with their plans to expand to the borders of the RF ( as we believe was their geopolitical plan all along ), but we must take care to prevent an alienation of Turkey ( as a NATO member) ?due to any perceived mistreatment of the Crimean Tartars could be seen as negative to Turkey and leading to a possible geopolitical blockade of the Bosporus and Dardanelles in an extreme case. Erdogan is already well aware of the RF opposition to an expanding Islamic threat to the RF via Chechnya and Syria, but we believe that Turkey can be kept “on-side” by the provision of a stream of low-cost oil.

b)?????It will be necessary to divert welfare funds from the people to military spending.

c)?????The Russian economy and reserves will be put under pressure.

d)?????The RF will be seen to be out of line with liberal democracies, but the conservative states and the Russian people will leave VVP with a legacy as a strong leader who successfully stands up to the unipolar hegemony of the USA ?and the West.

e)?????New laws will need to be passed to ensure that the Russian federation population do not believe that the RF ?is involved in the conflict in any manner other than in using our ?“responsibility to protect” ethnic Russians and Russian speakers who are oppressed by the Fascist Ukrainian Government.?Therefore curbs must be put on Russian citizens in Novorossiya using social media giving their location, and lessons must be learnt for our involvement in Afghanistan regarding Mothers losing sons in the conflict publicizing the mortality rates.

?3.?????Conclusion: Generally, it can be concluded that the advantages of expanding Russian intervention beyond the Crimea for the RF and pursuing further Novorossiya territories outweigh the disadvantages both for VV P. personally, for the morale of the Russian people and for the Russian Federation itself.?However, lessons should be learnt regarding time scales from our Asian allies rather than from The European side of the Urals, and patience should be exerted.

Ukraine has multiple problems, with finance being a major concern for them. It is possible that their electorate will be more open to assistance from their traditional ally, the RF, when the population understands that the EU has no intention of coming to the rescue of their economy.??

Crimea can now be considered to have been added to the list of frozen conflicts the RF is involved in and which are integral parts to make up Novorossiya, and during the Ukraine conflict, Abkhazia and South?Ossetia ?(formerly Georgia) have been integrated further into the RF almost without notice (so now?“Russian territories” ) while the West has focused on the Minsk agreements and the RF has pursued a policy to federalize Ukraine in a “non-aligned” manner, agreeable to the RF, by demanding constitutional changes from the Ukraine which will allow the RF influence in the ethnic Russian territories. ?Winter and OPEC gas prices will be a telling time. !

?4.?????Fiscal considerations

This section will be completed by the Ministry of Finance of the RF

September 18, 2021

References

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2?Stokes, G: “The Walls Came Tumbling Down”, page 131.?Oxford University Press, 1993

3 ????Bache, Ian and Stephen George (2006)?Politics in the European Union, Oxford University Press. p549–550

?5 United Nations Security Council?Verbotim Report5969.?S/PV/5969?page 6. Mr Churkin?Russia August 28, 2008. Retrieved 2008-09-03.[dead link]?See Also?“Security Council meeting 5969”. 2008-08-28.Archived on September 13, 2008

6?"The Gift of Crimea".". www.macalester.edu. Retrieved?2014-03-06.

7??"Ukraine crisis: Crimea MPs vote to join Russia". BBC News. 2014-03-06.

Retrieved?2015-06-26

8 "Kosovo MPs proclaim independence",?BBC News Online, February 17 2008?

Retrieved?2015-06-26

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