Eyes on AAPL & Jobs Report

Greetings fellow traders and welcome to your May 2nd edition of Weekly Wisdom: Levels to Know and Moves to Look For!

Now let's get to what we're currently seeing in these volatile markets and what we have our focus on going forward.

?

Taking a look back on this week, April 29 - May 3:

• Markets have formed a large range over the past week, continuing the bounce that started last Friday but then fading back down off of resistance.??
• Bears have remained in control, but bulls have also stepped up and provided some support to prevent us from breaking down further.??
• Data for the week began on Tuesday with the employment cost index q/q coming in hot at 1.2% vs 1.0% expected, which resulted in equities trading lower. Chicago PMI gave a miss at 37.9 vs 44.9 expected. CB consumer confidence was also a miss at 97 vs 104 expected.??
• Wednesday started off with a beat for ADP non-farm employment change at 192,000 vs 179,000 expected. Final manufacturing PMI was a slight beat at 50.0 vs 49.9 expected. ISM manufacturing PMI was a miss at 49.2 vs 50.0 expected. JOLTS job openings was also a miss at 8.49 million vs 8.68 million expected, while ISM manufacturing prices was a beat at 60.9 vs 55.5 expected. Construction spending m/m was a miss at -0.2% vs 0.3% expected. In the afternoon, the Fed left interest rates unchanged and Powell had a dovish tone to his speech, but gave more of the same statements regarding when rate cuts may be needed. Many are now looking out to either November or December for timing of the first rate cut.??
• Thursday’s weekly unemployment claims came roughly inline at 208,000 vs 212,000 expected. Prelim nonfarm productivity q/q was a beat at 0.3% vs 0.8% expected, with prelim unit labor costs also beating at 4.7% vs 3.6% expected. Trade balance data was inline at -69.4 billion vs -69.5 billion expected. Factory orders m/m were also inline at 1.6%.??
• Friday, May 3 ends the week with further employment data, starting with average hourly earnings m/m, non-farm employment change, and the unemployment rate all at 8:30 a.m. ET. We’ll then see final services PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET, followed by ISM services PMI at 10:00 a.m. ET.?

Here's what we are eyeing next week, May 6 - May 10:

Level Highlights:

• $SPX futures continued the bounce that started last week into Tuesday morning, slightly breaking last week’s high, but was hit back down on the strong employment cost index number that was released Tuesday morning.??
• $SPX futures are now forming a bearish rising wedge on the daily chart, with a rough range between 5025 and 5150.??
• A break lower of that wedge gives a measured move down to 4900.??
• However, should the bulls take a stand and break the wedge up or “fail” this pattern, bulls could see a measured move back up to 5275.??
• While the bears have remained in control, the $VIX is back below the big 15 level that has been discussed here for weeks, which provides some flooring / support for the bulls to base off of.?
• A further bleed on the $VIX back into the 13 handle range should be enough for the bulls to attempt a break higher and close above the current 5150 resistance level.

Upcoming News:

• Monday, May 6 is a slow start to the week data wise with no major economic data, but some Fed speakers will give comments in the early afternoon.? ??
• Tuesday, May 7 brings the consumer credit m/m update at 3:00 p.m. ET.
• Wednesday, May 8 we’ll see data for final wholesale inventories m/m at 10:00 a.m. ET. There is also a 10-year bond auction just after 1:00 p.m. ET.??
• Thursday, May 9 starts off with our weekly unemployment claims at 8:30 a.m. ET. We’ll then see the results for the 30-year bond auction just after 1:00 p.m. ET.?
• Friday, May 10 ends the week with prelim University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations at 10:00 a.m. ET. In the afternoon, we’ll get the update for the Federal budget balance at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Here's Your Chart of the Week:

Via Bloomberg, NFIB, and MUFG US Macro Strategy:? An interesting chart here showing the difference many have been talking about between small business struggling and larger corporations doing just fine still - the cost of capital for the smaller businesses who may need the money more has been increasing while the larger corporations are not feeling the same type of pain

Source

SPY Daily Update:

$SPY daily chart continued the bounce that started last Friday but has fallen back down off of 510 resistance. We now have a loose range for $SPY between 498 support and 510 resistance building out, overall giving a bearish wedge type pattern with a measured move down to 486 on a real 498 breakdown

SPY Weekly Update:

$SPY weekly chart slightly broke last week’s inside candle high but has since retraced back lower. Markets are fairly neutral at this point with bears leaning in control unless $SPY can close back above the 510-512 zone

Want to Trade With My Team? Click here!

-Patrick Hawe

?

?

Disclosures

Patrick Hawe's current positions:

*As of 2:21pm ET May 2, 2024?

Patrick Hawe is an Associated Member of T3 Trading Group, LLC (“T3TG”), a SEC Registered Broker-Dealer & Member of FINRA/SIPC. All trades made are placed through T3TG.

T3 Live, LLC is a financial publisher that disseminates information about economic, business, and capital markets issues through various media. T3 Live is not a Broker-Dealer, an Investment Adviser, or any other type of business subject to regulation by the SEC, CFTC, state securities regulators or any “self-regulatory organization” (such as FINRA). Although T3 Live and T3TG are affiliated companies by virtue of common ownership, the companies are managed separately and engage in different businesses.

The programs that T3TG distributes (including articles, commentary, videos, blogs and social media postings) are for informational and educational purposes only. No one should consider the information disseminated by T3TG to be personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment, an offer (or a solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any investment, or the provision of any other kind of investment advice. No one associated with T3TG is authorized to make any representation to the contrary.

T3TG provides information that viewers of its programs may consider in making their own investment decisions. However, any viewer will be responsible for considering such information carefully and evaluating how it might relate to that viewer’s own decision to buy, sell or hold any investment. Such decisions must be based on that viewer’s individual and independent evaluation of his or her financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs, family commitments and other factors, not in reliance on any information obtained from T3TG.

Statements by any person (whether identified as associated with T3 Live, T3 Trading Group, or any other entity) represent the opinions of that person only and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of T3TG or any other person associated with T3TG.

It is possible that any individual providing information or expressing an opinion on any T3TG program may hold an investment position (or may be contemplating holding an investment position) that is inconsistent with the information provided or the opinion being expressed. This may reflect the financial or other circumstances of the individual or it may reflect some other consideration. Viewers of T3TG programs should take this into account when evaluating the information provided or the opinion being expressed.

Although T3TG strives to provide accurate and reliable information from sources that it believes to be reliable, T3TG makes no guarantees as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or correctness of any such information. T3TG makes no guarantee or promise of any kind, express or implied, that anyone will profit from or avoid losses from using information disseminated through T3TG.

All investments are subject to risk of loss, which you should consider in making any investment decisions. Viewers of T3TG programs should consult with their financial advisors, attorneys, accountants or other qualified professionals prior to making any investment decision.

The risk of loss in trading equities, options, forex and/or futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage that is often obtainable in options trading may benefit you as well as conversely lead to large losses beyond your initial investment. Past results are not indicative of future results. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits similar to those shown.

T3 Trading Group, LLC is a Registered SEC Broker-Dealer and Member of FINRA/SIPC. All trading conducted by contributors associated with T3TG on the Virtual Trading Floor is done through T3TG. For more information on T3 Trading Group, LLC please visit www.T3Trading.com.