IS THE EYE OF THE STORM APPROACHING?

It feels so good to finally be back on the road meeting up with clients in person again!?

I decided to go with a hurricane theme and titled my new 25-page research report,?IS THE EYE OF THE STORM APPROACHING?: Navigating the New Economic, Technological and Societal Winds. The eye of the storm (i.e., recession) seems to be approaching as the Fed recently warned of?“pain to households and businesses”?as the “unfortunate costs” of raising rates to cool inflation. Although the Fed has raised rates by 225 basis points since March, inflation is still running hot at 8.3%.?

My basic thesis is we’re seeing a?bifurcation in each of the three sides of my Value Pyramid?as the storm starts to touch down on the shores of coastline cities while inland cities remain safe (for now):?

• ECONOMIC CAPITAL (Economic Winds):?The eye of the storm is hitting tech companies but hurricane storm winds are moving inland to non-tech companies.?
• STRUCTURAL CAPITAL (Technological Winds):?The pandemic-driven tech giant tsunami is crashing down as enterprise technology, ad tech and e-commerce spending decelerates.?
• CUSTOMER CAPITAL (Societal Winds):?Demand destruction is moving up the income curve from the have-nots to the haves.?

The big question is will this end up being a Category 3 or Category 5 hurricane?