- Pakistan’s exports grew 8.17% to $22.022 billion in July-February FY 2024-25, but the trade deficit widened by 6.33% to $15.780 billion. In February, exports fell 5.57%, marking the first decline this fiscal year, while the trade deficit surged 33.43% to $2.29 billion.
- Pakistan’s annual inflation fell to a decade low of 1.5% in February 2025, exceeding the Finance Ministry’s forecast of 2-3%. Sugar and edible oil prices remain high domestically. 7.8% (18.74 million) of Pakistan is unemployed, while the unemployment rate among the working population stands at 11%.
- Pakistan’s cotton production crisis continues to strain the economy, exports, and the textile sector, with a sharp 34.17% decline in cotton arrivals recorded at 5.524 million bales as of February 28, compared to 8.393 million bales last year.
- An armed clash at the Torkham border late Sunday night, triggered by unprovoked Afghan security forces' fire on Pakistan’s Ayub Post, resulted in one civilian death and five injuries, including three security personnel. The border remains closed for the 10th consecutive day amid ongoing tensions, with both sides reportedly using heavy weaponry.
- Gold prices in Pakistan rose by Rs 1,500/tola on Monday, reaching Rs 301,500, while 10-gram gold increased to Rs 258,487. International gold prices also climbed, reaching $2,869/ounce, marking a $12 gain. Analysts note that recent corrections were expected, with prices rebounding after hitting a low of $2,832 on Friday.
- Oil prices dropped about 2% to a 12-week low as OPEC+ confirmed plans to increase output in April, raising concerns over supply and weaker global demand due to U.S. tariffs. Brent crude fell $1.48 to $71.33/barrel, while WTI dropped $1.65 to $68.11. Bitcoin surged over 20% from last week's lows, reaching around $91,605, after US President Donald Trump hinted at a new US strategic reserve.
AGRI-UPDATES - COMMODITIES, POLICY & DEVELOPMENTS
- Engro Holdings Profit Rises: Rs 39.1 billion was the profit reported by Engro Holdings for the year ended Dec 31, 2024, up 17% from a profit of Rs 34.4 billion last year. [ET]
- Gold Prices Rise to Rs 301,500/Tola: Gold prices in Pakistan rose by Rs 1,500/tola on Monday, reaching Rs 301,500, while 10-gram gold increased to Rs 258,487. The rise follows a Rs 500 drop on Saturday, reflecting market volatility. International gold prices also climbed, reaching $2,869/ounce, marking a $12 gain. Analysts note that recent corrections were expected, with prices rebounding after hitting a low of $2,832 on Friday. [ET]
- Pakistan Cotton Production Decline: Pakistan’s cotton production crisis continues to strain the economy, exports, and the textile sector, with a sharp 34.17% decline in cotton arrivals recorded at 5.524 million bales as of February 28, compared to 8.393 million bales last year. The Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) report signals a severe threat to the industry, as noted by Sajid Mahmood from the Central Cotton Research Institute Multan. [BR] [Dawn]
- Cotton Prices Steady Amid Decline: Cotton prices in Sindh range between Rs 16,700 and Rs 17,800/maund, while in Punjab, they stand between Rs 17,000 and Rs 17,800/maund, with the Spot Rate unchanged at Rs 17,500/maund. Polyester fiber prices remain at Rs 351/kilogram. [BR]
- Sindh CM Orders Crackdown on Profiteering: Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah has ordered a crackdown on profiteers and directed the seizure and auction of hoarded goods under anti-profiteering laws to control Ramazan price hikes. Despite past efforts, weak enforcement has allowed essential commodity prices to surge, prompting the CM to issue strict directives for market regulation across the province. [Dawn]
- Flour, Roti Prices Remain High: Despite Commissioner Hasan Naqvi's announcement of reduced flour and roti prices, consumers have yet to see any relief. The official price cuts have not been implemented in retail markets, where flour and roti continue to be sold at higher rates. Many tandoor operators are ignoring the revised rates, selling chapati and naan well above the notified prices, citing the reduction as a temporary Ramazan measure. [Dawn]
ENERGY - WEATHER, WATER & POWER
- Snowfall, Rains Disrupt Life in Northern Pakistan: Fresh snowfall in Gilgit-Baltistan and Kohistan disrupted life, blocking the Karakoram Highway and causing flight cancellations. Snowfall ranged from one to three inches, with more expected. Authorities warned against unnecessary travel due to slippery roads. Since February 26, rain-related incidents in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa have left four dead, nine injured, and damaged 14 houses. PDMA has directed relief efforts and road clearance. [Dawn] [ET] [ET]
- Torkham Border Clash Escalates: An armed clash at the Torkham border late Sunday night, triggered by unprovoked Afghan security forces' fire on Pakistan’s Ayub Post, resulted in one civilian death and five injuries, including three security personnel. The border remains closed for the 10th consecutive day amid ongoing tensions, with both sides reportedly using heavy weaponry during the exchange. [BR] [Dawn] [ET]
- Shehbaz Addresses Gas Shortage: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif responded to gas supply complaints during Sehri and Iftar by convening emergency meetings with officials from the Sui companies. As a result, immediate measures were taken to resolve disruptions and ensure continuous monitoring of gas pressure throughout Ramazan. [BR]
- Pakistan Ensures Transparent IPP Talks: Federal Minister for Power, Sardar Awais Leghari, assured international lenders that negotiations with IPPs are transparent, offering options for arbitration or forensic audits. Speaking to the World Bank, IMF, and ADB, he addressed concerns over renewable project exploitation and past disputes involving Siemens and Rouch Power. [BR] [Dawn]
- KP Assembly Seeks Higher Koto Power Tariff: The Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Assembly passed a resolution to raise the electricity tariff for the Koto Hydropower Project in Dir to increase local revenue. The 41MW project, initiated with Rs 14 billion, remains incomplete after a decade. It sells power at Rs 8.24/unit, generating Rs 1.7 billion annually, with only 10% allocated to the district. [ET]
- Petroleum Dealers Call Off Strike: The All Pakistan Petroleum Dealers Association (APPDA) called off their March 4 strike after the Petroleum Division assured them that their sale margins would not be affected by the planned oil price deregulation. Following successful talks with Petroleum Minister Dr. Musadik Malik, APPDA leader Noman Butt confirmed normal business operations would continue, with the government recognizing that low margins could impact service and fuel quality. [Dawn] [ET]
- Punjab Launches Free Solar Scheme: Punjab CM Maryam Nawaz launched the free solar panel scheme for consumers using up to 200 units per month, with digital balloting conducted. Installation will begin after verification, aiming for completion by July. In the first phase, 94,483 solar systems will be installed, with 861,000 applicants for the scheme. [Dawn]
- KP Mineral Royalties Surge 200%: Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa recorded a 200% increase in mineral royalties this fiscal year, as revealed in a meeting chaired by Chief Secretary Shahab Ali Shah. The session focused on budget planning, fund allocations, and expenditure. Officials discussed salary and pension projections, financial needs, and governance reforms, emphasizing transparency, digitization, and process automation. A two-year rotation policy will be enforced to improve financial transparency. [ET]
PAKISTAN - ECONOMICS, POLITICS & SECURITY
- IMF Begins Pakistan Loan Review: The IMF's nine-member mission has begun its first review of Pakistan’s $7 billion EFF, with initial talks focusing on technical aspects before moving to policy discussions. The government hopes to secure a $1.1 billion tranche within three weeks, as officials claim all performance benchmarks from the first half of FY25 have now been met, with discussions running from March 3 to 14, including a review of the 2025-26 budget. [BR] [Dawn]
- Pakistan Weighs UNCAC Report Disclosure: Pakistan is reconsidering its commitment to fully disclose the UNCAC Country Review Report, forming a committee to decide whether to release only its executive summary. This decision comes just before the IMF’s review mission, which will seek an update on Pakistan’s commitments as part of negotiations for a $1 billion loan tranche. [ET]
- Pakistan Inflation Hits Nine-Year Low: Pakistan’s annual inflation fell to a decade-low of 1.5% in February 2025, driven by lower food and electricity prices. This exceeded the Finance Ministry’s forecast of 2-3%. Despite the decline, sugar and edible oil prices remain high domestically. Inflation has been steadily dropping since August 2024. [BR] [Dawn] [ET]
- Pakistan, UAE Strengthen Investment Ties: The Special Investment Facilitation Council is driving foreign investments, with Pakistan signing MoUs with the UAE to boost cooperation in banking, mining, railways, and infrastructure. A key agreement between Pakistan Railways and UAE’s Etihad Rail is expected to enhance the railway network, strengthening trade, investment, and energy sector collaboration. [MG]
- Pakistan Unemployment Rate at 7.8%: Pakistan's updated 2023 digital census data reveals that 7.8% (18.74 million) of the total population is unemployed, while the unemployment rate among the working population stands at 11%. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics has uploaded detailed district-level data, covering demographics, literacy, employment, housing, and infrastructure. [BR]
- Pakistan Export Growth, Wider Deficit: Pakistan’s exports grew 8.17% to $22.022 billion in July-February FY 2024-25, but the trade deficit widened by 6.33% to $15.780 billion. In February, exports fell 5.57%, marking the first decline this fiscal year, while the trade deficit surged 33.43% to $2.29 billion. Analysts attribute the drop to seasonal factors, despite earlier export momentum. [BR] [Dawn]
INTERNATIONAL - MARKET, POLITICS, SECURITY & DEVELOPMENT
- Arab Ministers Finalize Gaza Rebuilding Plan: Arab foreign ministers met in Cairo to finalize a plan to rebuild Gaza without displacing its residents, countering President Trump’s proposal. The plan will be presented at the Arab League summit. Meanwhile, European states urged Israel to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza. [Dawn] [ET]
- Trump Tariff Plan Threatens Central Europe: Former U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to impose 25% tariffs on EU imports could hurt Central Europe's growth, particularly through its reliance on Germany’s car sector, according to S&P Global Ratings. While direct trade exposure to the U.S. is limited, nations like Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Romania could see economic strain, as exports—especially machinery and transport equipment—make up a significant portion of their economies. [Dawn] [MG]
- Antarctic Current Slowdown Threatens Climate Stability: The Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the world's strongest ocean current, could slow by 20% due to melting Antarctic ice sheets, according to new research. Scientists warn this could lead to greater climate variability and accelerated global warming by weakening the ocean's role as a carbon sink. The influx of fresh water alters salt levels, disrupting the deep-water circulation critical for global climate stability. [ET]
- Bitcoin Surges 20% on US Reserve Speculation: Bitcoin surged over 20% from last week's lows, reaching around $91,605, after US President Donald Trump hinted at a new US strategic reserve including Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana, and Cardano. The announcement reversed recent declines caused by regulatory concerns, boosting market sentiment and rallying other cryptocurrencies. [ET]
- Gold Gains on Weaker Dollar: Gold prices rose slightly on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar and increased safe-haven demand amid delays in Ukraine peace talks and concerns over U.S. tariff policy. Spot gold gained 0.1% to $2,860.25 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures climbed 0.8% to $2,872, as the dollar index fell 0.3%. [BR]
- Oil Prices Fall on OPEC+ Output Plan: Oil prices dropped about 2% to a 12-week low as OPEC+ confirmed plans to increase output in April, raising concerns over supply and weaker global demand due to U.S. tariffs. Brent crude fell $1.48 to $71.33/barrel, while WTI dropped $1.65 to $68.11, as OPEC+ continues gradual output cuts initiated since 2022. [BR]
- Opinion: GPI – A Catalyst for Agricultural Transformation - “Israel has revolutionized desert farming through sophisticated irrigation methods like drip irrigation and desalination technologies. The United Arab Emirates has embraced hydroponics and aeroponics to sustain agriculture with minimal water consumption. Saudi Arabia has successfully cultivated wheat and other crops in its desert landscape using center-pivot irrigation systems and recycled water.” - By Sajid Mahmood [BR]
- Opinion: Ignored Challenge - “IT is the season of mindlessness. Seminars on climate change are in, while family planning services are out. Taking loans is in, while thinking with one’s own brain is out. Danish schools are in, while the 26.2 million out-of-school children in the country are out. Pakistan has travelled too far in the wrong direction and seems in no mood to course correct. There are at least four fundamental reforms that are needed for a turnaround. These include: addressing our burgeoning population; creating at least 25 administrative units, instead of continuing with the existing four huge and unmanageable provinces; putting an end to foreign loans; and placing every youngster from five to 16 years in a child-friendly school.” - By Naeem Sadiq [Dawn]
- Opinion: How Global Collaboration Can Save Millions - “Recent statistics from the World Food Programme (WFP) 2025 Global Outlook reveal a staggering reality: approximately 343 million people are believed to be acutely food insecure across 74 countries, while up to 19 million people were estimated to be on the brink of famine in 2024. The regions of Sudan, Gaza, Haiti and Mali are most affected by acute food insecurity and, as they suffer from a dire lack of resources, it is nearly impossible to address the problem effectively.” - By Hoorain Arif Patel [ET]
