Exports rose 14pc in July-September

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Exports rose 14pc in July-September

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Pakistan’s merchandise exports rose 14.11 per cent to $7.87 billion in the first quarter of the current fiscal year from $6.90bn in the same period last year, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday. The growth momentum picked pace in July owing to improved orders from the international community and stability in the exchange rate. The exports grew 11.83pc in July, followed by 16pc in August and 13.52pc in September. The exports reached $2.81bn in September against $2.47bn in the corresponding month last year. On a month-on-month basis, exports rose a paltry 1.56pc.Global buyers have redirected clothing sourcing from Bangladesh and China and placed orders with Pakistan. It allows Pakistani exporters to capitalise on and capture the market.

Pakistan Textile Exporters Association Patron-in-Chief Khurram Mukhtar said exports could have been surged by 25pc if issues related to liquidity and taxation had been resolved.The FBR paid Rs146bn in refunds to taxpayers in the first quarter of FY25, up from Rs129bn in the same quarter last year, representing a 13.17pc increase. Refund payments plunged to Rs15bn in September from Rs37bn in the same month last year.According to the PBS data, imports grew 9.86pc to $13.31bn in July-September FY25 from $12.11bn over the last year. The imports increased 16.08pc in September to $4.58bn from $3.95bn in the same month last year. Month-on-month, imports increased 16.08pc. In FY24, imports fell by 0.84pc to $54.73bn compared to $55.19bn in FY23.The trade deficit in July-September FY25 increased by 4.24pc to $5.44bn from $5.22bn over the last year. In September, the deficit increased by 20.35pc to $1.78bn from $1.48bn last year. The trade gap contracted to $24.08bn in FY24 from $27.47bn in the preceding year.

Pakistan’s merchandise exports rose 10.54 per cent to $30.64 billion in 2023-24 from $27.72bn in the preceding year, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Tuesday.Exports increased steadily from July 2023 until they turned negative in January. This negative trend persisted until April. After a temporary setback, growth regained momentum in May and continued into June.The country witnessed its highest-ever exports in 2021-22, reaching a staggering $31.78bn. However, the following year saw a decline, with exports dropping to $27.54bn.A range of initiatives implemented by the caretaker government resulted in a significant boost to exports which jumped to $30.65bn in FY24.

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Trade gap widens 30pc to $2.39bn in June.In June, exports reached $2.53bn, up from $2.35bn in the same month last year, indicating a growth of 7.34pc. However, they saw a decline of 10.92pc month-on-month.Exports have witnessed a negative growth of 8.38pc, 0.39pc, 7.49pc and 1.06 in April, March, February and January, respectively. However, it recorded an increase of 19pc in May. The projected export target for FY25 is $32.3bn, representing a modest increase of 6.6pc.Exporter associations have cautioned the government about the potential negative impact of the tax measures outlined in the budget 2024-25. They believe these steps could result in a decline in the country’s export earnings.There is concern that exporters may declare a lower value of their proceeds to reduce their tax payments. Additionally, this practice of under-invoicing will result in a loss of foreign exchange earnings from exports to other countries.

According to the PBS data, imports fell 0.84pc to $54.73bn in FY24 compared to $55.19bn in FY23. However, in June, imports stood at $4.91bn as against $4.18bn over the corresponding month of last year, indicating a growth of 17.43pc.The import target for FY25 is projected at $57.3bn.

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The trade deficit widened by 30.39pc to $2.39bn in June from $1.83bn in the corresponding month last year. However, the trade gap narrowed to $24.08bn in FY24 from $27.47bn over the previous year.Rising exports might bring some joy to the government which has set an ambitious target to increase exports to $100bn by the end of FY28. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) however doesn’t share the Commerce Ministry’s optimism as its projections for the next five years, during the first review of the previous $3bn Stand-by Arrangement, were way below the $100bn mark.The Fund anticipated that Pakistan’s exports will gradually increase from $30.84bn in FY24 to $32.35bn in FY25, $34.68bn in FY26, $37.25bn in FY27 and $39.46bn in FY28.The IMF’s target appears more realistic as, according to the data, exports recorded an average monthly growth of 3.03pc during the outgoing fiscal year.

Consumers paying higher prices as food exports surge.Exports of raw food items continued to increase in the current fiscal year, with a 42.39 per cent gain in the first two months compared to the same period of the previous year.The value of raw food exports reached $1.01 billion in July-August from $710.65 million over the corresponding months of last year, according to data compiled by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. In FY24, the raw food exports touched $8bn, up from $5.8bn over the preceding year.As a result, consumers nationwide are paying higher prices for food items because of supply and demand gaps. Raw food exports have climbed for the past 13 consecutive months despite the highest food inflation in history.The government has allowed sugar export despite an average retail price of Rs160 per kg.

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In the first two months, sugar exports reached 86,148 tonnes, compared to 6,146 tonnes in the same months last year, showing an increase of 160.26pc. Millers have mainly exported sugar to Afghanistan.Rice is a major contributor to the rise in food exports. Rice exports increased by 98.58pc in the first two months of FY25 compared to the previous year. The quantity and value of basmati rice increased by 136.19pc and 103.63pc, respectively.

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Exports of rice, other than basmati, increased 95.16pc in value and 64.44pc in quantity in 2MFY25 over the last year.

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This surge is attributed to Pakistan’s strong performance in the EU, Africa, the ASEAN region, and GCC countries, coupled with fixing the Minimum Export Price and enhanced compliance with Sanitary and Phytosanitary standards.

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Due to a sustained surge in export figures over the past two years, the average price of basmati rice has surged to Rs400 per kg from Rs150, restricting buying from domestic consumers.

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Meat exports increased by 2.43pc in 2MFY25 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. The opening of new markets, participation of new companies in meat exports and approvals for additional slaughterhouses have contributed to this growth.

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Meat prices in the domestic market have experienced an unparalleled surge in recent years. In the past three years, the average cost of buffalo meat has jumped from Rs700 per kg to Rs1,400. This increase has caught the attention of market observers and stakeholders alike. The price of chicken has also experienced an unprecedented surge, reaching its highest level over the last three years.

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Exports of vegetables, especially onions, have recorded growth of 56.73pc in July-Aug FY25 from a year ago. The export of fruits increased by 11.20pc during the months under review.

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Exports of fish and its products declined by 10.90pc, followed by a decline of 9.63pc in spices, 15.27pc in oil seeds and nuts, 100pc in the export of leguminous vegetables during the period under review.

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Contrary to this, the import of food products declined 18.15pc to $1.06bn in 2MFY25 from $1.30bn over the corresponding months thanks to a decline in the arrival of infant baby milk, soyabean oil, palm oil, sugar and pulses.

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However, the import of spices increased by 59pc and dried fruits 88pc, respectively.

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