Exponential Energy

The challenge for COP26 - to set the world on track to halve emissions and build resilience within the 2020s - may be staggering. But throughout history, exponential change has made the impossible suddenly possible - and it continues to do so now.?

For evidence of this, look at the transformation underway in the energy sector, across national and local governments, finance, energy producers and energy users.

In 2020, renewable energy sources grew rapidly and electric vehicle sales set new records - even under the economic weight of Covid-19 lockdowns, the International Energy Agency said today in its?World Energy Outlook 2021. “The stubbornness of status quo” still stands in the way of the IEA’s pathway to net zero emissions by 2050, it added, with a large rebound in coal and oil use this year.???

But the goal is still in our reach, and the mindset is changing exponentially. China?committed?in September to stop building new coal-fired power plants overseas and increase its support for clean, sustainable development in poorer countries. Soon after, the state-owned?Bank of China?announced it would end financing for new coal mining and coal-fired power projects overseas from October. Remember, this comes only a year after China committed to reach net zero emissions by 2060.??

This is what turning commitment into practice is all about. China’s move facilitates the cancellation of more than 40 gigawatts of coal power in 20 countries, according to?E3G?and?Ember. The global list of proposed coal power projects has already shrunk by three-quarters since we clinched the Paris Agreement in 2015.?

Now the push to phase out fossil fuels is spreading to oil and gas. The?Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, announced by Costa Rica and Denmark and launching at COP26, commits national and subnational governments to end new domestic oil and gas exploration and extraction and gradually end their existing production. The?Global Methane Pledge?commits countries to cut global methane emissions by at least 30 per cent by 2030, with the European Union, Argentina, Ghana, Indonesia, Iraq, Italy, Mexico, UK and US already signed up.?

The clean energy transition will create jobs - potentially 13 million more by 2030, the IEA said, but those jobs won’t always be in the same communities or professions that are seeing jobs decline as a result. Managing the exit from coal, for example, requires governments and financial institutions to allow for the reclamation and repurposing of land and to maximize the opportunities for decent, high-quality jobs in affected communities, it said.?

The Energy Breakthrough

The clean power sector hit an important?breakthrough?last month, with more than 20 per cent of major utilities by revenue joining the UN-backed Race to Zero. That means they commit to halving emissions by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2050.

These include Engie, E.On, Kenya Electricity Generating Company, National Grid, ReNew Power, RWE, Vattenfall and Vistra.?Vattenfall?also strengthened its targets to cut its emissions intensity by 77 per cent (rather than 40 per cent) by 2030 and reach net zero by 2040 (rather than 2050). The Swedish company did this as part of the?Science Based Targets Initiative, which in July raised its target to align with limiting warming to 1.5°C.?SSE, another Race to Zero member, is also inviting people to sign a call for ambitious climate action at COP26, which will be listed on the world’s largest future offshore wind farm at Dogger Bank in the UK North Sea.?

Big sectors including finance, transport and industry are following suit, and spurring further change.?

In finance, Africa’s biggest bank,?FirstRand?in South Africa, said it would immediately end funding for new coal-fired power plants and halt finance for coal mining over the next five years. Canadian pension fund?CDPQ?has said it will divest from oil production by the end of 2022 and put C$10 billion into decarbonizing industrial sectors. The?Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero?is aligning the full breadth of the financial sector behind halving emissions this decade and reaching net zero by 2050.??

In road transport, recently?Rolls-Royce?said it will only produce electric vehicles by 2030,?Toyota?is investing around US$13.6 billion in battery technology over the next decade, and?Volvo?has secured its largest order for electric trucks, for 100 in northern Europe. And in mining,?Fortescue Metals Group?aims to decarbonize its indirect emissions by 2040, using green hydrogen to produce iron ore and steel.?

These are some of the six changes that governments and the private sector can make in the 2020s to get the world on track for a 1.5°C limit, according to the?Energy Transition Commission: a rapid reduction of methane emissions; decarbonizing power and accelerating the coal phaseout; quickening transport electrification. Other steps include halting deforestation and beginning reforestation; decarbonizing buildings, heavy industry and heavy transport; and reinvigorating energy and resource efficiency.

The COP26 in Glasgow, just three weeks away, is an opportunity for national governments as well as cities, regions, businesses, investors and civil society to join forces in driving exponential growth towards these six changes.

TEDx Countdown

Looking for ways to spread ideas? The TEDx Countdown programme is helping communities, organizations and individuals produce TED-style climate events locally, around the world. Between the end of 2020 and the end of this year, there will have been over a thousand TEDx Countdown events in more than 90 countries.

Check out?this list?to find the hundreds of upcoming TEDx events and then join one in your hometown!?

TED Countdown is also hosting a Summit in Edinburgh this week, a?global livestream?at the end of this month and will be streaming live from the Blue Zone during COP26.

In Case You Missed It

• The World Health Organization has set out?10 priorities for safeguarding the health?of people and the planet, stating “the burning of fossil fuels is killing us”. The same day, over 450 health organizations representing 45 million health professionals published a?healthy climate prescription?letter?calling for leaders to keep 1.5°C alive, phase out fossil fuels, boost climate finance and forge a green recovery.
• The UN Human Rights Council has adopted resolutions making the?right to a safe, clean, healthy and sustainable environment?a human right. It also appointed a special rapporteur to promote and protect?human rights in relation to climate change.?
• At least 85 per cent of the global population is already affected by climate change impacts such as crop failures, floods and heat waves, according to a study published in?Nature Climate Change. The evidence is much stronger in high-income countries than low-income, where there is less attribution research.?
• Over?1,000 global businesses?representing US$4.7 trillion in annual revenue have called on governments to adopt policies that will reverse nature loss by 2030, saying the Convention on Biodiversity COP15 this week is the last best chance to turn the tide.?
• The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero is?calling?for greater and faster climate action from G20, noting that the?Marrakech Partnership's Finance Pathway?recommendations, launched this year, can help advance that action.
• A?Global Citizens’ Assembly?of 100 people has been launched to discuss climate change responses ahead of COP26. Members?will reflect?global demographics, with 60 per cent from Asia and 17 per cent from Africa, half women and 70 per cent earning $10 a day or less.
• How do we secure ambitious, just and equitable climate decisions for vulnerable countries at COP26? The new?ACT2025 podcast miniseries?by WRI delves into what’s needed.?
• The Race to Zero has added a number of?new members from Chile, including the local governments of Región Metropolitana, Municipalidad de Renca, Municipalidad de Vitacura, home improvements retail chain Sodimac, cement maker Cementos Polpaico and public bank Banco Estado.??
• The High-Level Champions and partners have launched?Zero Emissions Mobility: Commitment for Latin America and the Caribbean, an initiative to commit cities in the region to transform transport in line with net zero emissions. The region’s CO2 emissions from transport rose by 3 per cent between 2010 and 2019.?
• The?Implementation Lab?event held during 2021 Africa Climate Week last month gathered representatives from the Moroccan government, the African Union Commission, the International Union of Railways, NGOs and companies from Senegal, South Africa, Egypt, Zimbabwe and Uganda to discuss the pathways to a net-zero and resilient transport sector in Africa. This included the region’s challenges in electrification, Covid recovery, climate finance and the use of innovation and technology as described in the?Marrakech Partnership Climate Action Pathways. The event was organized by the High-Level Champions, the International Transport Forum and the SLOCAT Partnership.
• After drawing 11,500 people, including 7,000 entrepreneurs and 1,825 investors, to the?South Summit 21?event this month, South Summit will work with organizations to formalize their net-zero commitments under the Race to Zero and plan a Race to Zero roadshow in 2022.
• The first-ever?Middle East and North Africa Climate Week?is set for from 28 February to 3 March 2022 in Dubai, hosted by the United Arab Emirates government with support from the UN and other multilateral and national agencies.

Keep up to date with news from around the Race to Zero and Race to Resilience community, by checking out?racetozero.unfccc.int?for new stories every day!?

Mark Your Calendars

• 49th Session of the Committee on World Food Security (CFS49): 11-14 October
• Convention on Biodiversity COP15, hosted by China: 11-15 October, Kunming
• World Bank Group/IMF Annual Meetings: 11-17 October, Washington, DC??
• G20 Finance Ministers’ Meeting: 12-13 October, Washington, DC?
• TED Countdown Summit: 12-15 October, Edinburgh
• IIED Regional dialogue series: scaling up locally led adaptation: 13 (Asia-Pacific)-14 (Caribbean and Latin America) October??
• Technology Day - National Policy, Local Action: Scaling Integrated Approaches to Strengthen Coastal and Ocean Adaptation: 13 October