IS AN EXPLOSION OF DEMOCRACY UNDERWAY?

An astonishing number of countries will be going to the ballots in the year of 2024- a combined 50% of the world population, hailing from over 70 different countries, and the European Union. If it were normal or stable times, one would treat this historic event with great appreciation. It is, unfortunately, a lot more complicated than we would wish.

It is no secret that in recent years, a global trend of populism and extreme politics is spreading at an increasing pace. Many countries have experienced a decline in civil freedoms and economic status, mostly brought about by democratically elected governments. According to the International IDEA, half of the democracies around the world are in decline, and have experienced a decline in freedom of expression, alongside a distrust in the legitimacy of elections. Of 173 countries covered in the Idea's report, 104 were democratic, and of those – 52 were in decline. It is what many call the pendulum effect – a decline, in some cases sharper than others – in rights and freedoms, following some years of a more liberal elected power which in its time granted new freedoms, or codified them more firmly into law.

We have seen this pendulum effect in both of its directions in the recent years – Brazil's election of Bolsonaro, who has later lost the elections to Lula; Trump lost the 2020 US elections to Biden; Poland ousted the PiS government after 8 years, bringing back pro-EU Tusk as prime minister. Nevertheless, 2024 will be a year of great tests to the future of liberalism and democracy as we know it.

Should populist governments, which already declared their intended setback on issues such as women's rights, intake of refugees, and their dissent with NATO or the EU, be elected to power – the consequences will affect more than our freedom and rights. In more severe cases, it could very well mean the starting of new wars; Our polarised world, torn by already happening proxy wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, would descend into chaos.?As the so-called "East" and "West" grow ever more weary of each other, we might soon be approaching a point of no return.

This outcome, of course, will affect our economies and world trade. To begin with, taxes and national funds will be redirected to war efforts, in turn making it significantly harder for ordinary citizens to continue with their daily life as they used to. We have all witnessed the cost of the war in Ukraine on the average European households; With Ukraine unable to export wheat, flour and bread prices increased dramatically. Europe’s sanctions on Russian oil and gas have resulted with a sharp rise in the prices of heating and electricity. Corporates and companies in Europe, in a variety of industries ranging from transportation to wholesale and retail, especially around the food chain supply, saw great challenges and significant stock price declines.

Moreover, trading agreements between groups and countries will of course become increasingly political, and diplomatic relations will be altered, or completely cut off. This will affect countries not involved in any military fighting, who are dependent on foreign imports to sustain themselves. In that sense, countries of the global south are at greater risk than other countries.?

An already existing crisis combined with further restrictions on immigration could also mean another decrease in access to quality healthcare for many countries depending on immigrant workforce. Brexit in Britain was a devastating blow to an already struggling NHS, leading to a severe cut in health workers - in turn making waiting times longer, and treatment quality lower.?

Moreover, new research suggests that a nation's democratic experience contributed more than its GDP to explaining reductions in deaths from cardiovascular diseases, cancers, car accidents, and tuberculosis. Data also shows that higher quality universal healthcare coverage is more linked to democratic countries, compared to autocracies.??

I will admit that I am a bit at a loss as to what should be done. So many great powers are at play, all at once. What I do know, however, is that we cannot afford to sit this one out. If your country goes to the ballots this year – you must go and vote as well. This chance to influence the outcomes cannot be missed. If you were undecided up to this point, it is time to do some deep thinking, do some research, reconnect to your values and find the best representatives for your beliefs. Whoever it is you decide to vote for – vote. This year, perhaps, your vote counts more than ever. As the world geopolitics seem increasingly intertwined, your vote might influence your life, as it might impact mine, and many others worldwide.