Exploring Trends In Business, A Football Lesson

I've been a Detroit Lions fan since I was eight years old, and it's always fun to cheer for something, even if your favorite team has a history of struggles. But my interest in football goes beyond fandom. I'm fascinated by the psychology of the entire enterprise and how those observations can be applied to business, especially marketing.

I'm going to use generalizations in this piece, so please understand that I'm aware of their limitations.

Sports teams function much like businesses, competing for resources (players) and striving for the top position (the championship). These "businesses" employ experts who have often spent years, even generations, within the industry. This leads to the development of trends within teams or leagues, creating a kind of perpetual arms race—and that's where my fascination truly begins.

Following the Crowd

Football is a good example. Over the past decade, the NFL has implemented numerous rules to enhance player safety. This makes sense. Protecting your resources ensures a more enjoyable product for consumers. It's difficult to maintain viewership if your favorite players are constantly injured. The potential for permanent disability or even death underscores the importance of these new rules.

These safety measures have inadvertently created an environment that favors passing attacks. As a result, there's been a frantic race among teams to acquire players who excel at passing. This trend is mirrored in NFL defenses, which now heavily emphasize pass coverage.

The NFL, like many business sectors, is populated by experts who have dedicated their careers, and sometimes their family legacies, to the industry. This can lead to groupthink. In the NFL, the focus on passing is a prime example. In the business world, we're currently witnessing a similar phenomenon with the emphasis on AI. In marketing, my field, for years, you couldn't land a job without emphasizing your "data-driven" approach. "This is still a trend."

This is a cyclical trend that occurs in all human endeavors. Often, the first mover gains a significant advantage, prompting others to frantically imitate their success.

Exploiting the Trends

Whenever a new trend emerges, I look for the opportunities it creates. It's easy to get swept up in the excitement and feel pressured to conform. However, the NFL provides a perfect illustration of how to exploit these trends. Years of intense focus on passing attacks have created an opening for the re-emergence of the running game. Rushing attacks are the oldest form of offense in football, and with the NFL heavily geared towards passing, it was inevitable that someone would eventually exploit this weakness. Pass-focused defenses tend to prioritize speed and agility, leaving them vulnerable to the size and power of a strong rushing attack.

Similarly, for years, marketers were obsessed with data. While data is undoubtedly crucial, the emphasis on data-driven approaches led to a neglect of other essential factors. This resulted in a deluge of data-driven communication that ultimately failed to connect with the human element. It created a kind of "social static" where everyone was doing the same thing, and no one was truly being heard.

Within this static, opportunities arose for more traditional, human-focused communication strategies. I've witnessed a resurgence in direct mail, customized CRM outreach, and even cold calling. Old-fashioned networking has also become more effective. When we're constantly bombarded by algorithmic bots, a genuine human connection can be incredibly refreshing.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Today's business environment is almost entirely focused on AI, particularly in content generation. If you're not currently utilizing AI in some way, you might feel like you're falling behind. In marketing, I could probably make a fortune if I got a dollar for every time someone told me, "You just need to use AI."

While AI is undoubtedly here to stay, it's crucial to remember that trends can be exploited. Those who buck the trend or find innovative ways to leverage AI for other purposes will likely gain a significant advantage.

I've focused on AI here because it's the most prominent trend at the moment. We are in the midst of an AI revolution that will undoubtedly transform and even eliminate entire industries. However, within this disruption lie numerous opportunities.

My current bet is on the enduring value of old-fashioned, unscalable, human networking. Marketing, in my view, is essentially a simulation of human relationships, and nothing can truly replicate the power of genuine human interaction.

The Big Idea

The core message of this article is simple: Don't panic. If you're not an AI-driven marketer, you're simply a product of the previous data-driven era. If you haven't founded your own AI startup, that's perfectly acceptable.

The rise of AI will undoubtedly create numerous opportunities, and these opportunities may not always be directly related to AI itself. They might be found within older, more traditional business and marketing models.

Just as we might see a resurgence of the running back in football, we may witness a renewed appreciation for human connection and more traditional forms of communication in the business world.

Disclaimer: This analysis acknowledges the potential limitations of human interaction and empathy in terms of scalability and execution. AI may indeed facilitate more meaningful human interactions within marketing and business. My primary point is to caution against the reflexive urge to follow the crowd. I believe there's significant value in stepping back and identifying opportunities that arise from countering the prevailing trend.