Experts! Isn’t it time to call the bluff?

This morning I read an article by Roger L. Simon titled `Say Goodbye to Experts (Mostly)’. I liked 2 quotes from the article. I quote them. “Nothing would be more fatal than for the Government of States to get in the hands of Experts. Expert knowledge is limited knowledge, and the unlimited ignorance of plain man who knows where it hurts is a safer guide than any rigorous direction of specialized character” …. Winston Churchill.

“I would rather be governed by the first 2000 people in the telephone directory than by the Harvard University faculty” ……. William F. Buckley Jr.

Last week, I met one of my Octogenarian readers (I have 10 to 15 of them) of my articles. He said that I write about Gold and Silver market and he asked what he is expected to do with that information. Another octogenarian standing next to him responded by saying that they don’t follow what is written. Unfortunately, these are the people (me included) who have been exploited and who have lost what is legitimately theirs but are ignorant of it. These topics are technical. I do my best to avoid jargons as much as possible and make it as `Common-manish’ as possible. Believe me it is not easy. My mission is to demystify these subjects and make people understand and appreciate the truth.

Since I have been writing about the Gold and Silver market, I studied further on the topic. I understand that in 1974 Rothchild started the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). This was started solely to have an exchange for paper gold. The purpose was that the US government wanted this exchange to keep the price of gold down using artificial methods, so that, the value of Dollar could be maintained high. I want my octogenarian friends to understand that the bulk of Gold was produced in the eastern countries. Why, most of the factories for goods are in the east. Most of the resources are in the east. The western countries, with nothing of these, by merely manipulating paper gold trade, were controlling all our resources. East is the wealthy part of the world. West eat out of our hands. So then how could they do it? By their military might. They were assisted in this criminal process by the shenanigans of so-called experts. A day comes, always, when such criminality gets exposed and all this ends. That day has arrived. West is, today, a mere paper tiger, both economically and militarily. Lacks leaders with gravitas. Time has come for the west to atone for it’s misdeeds.

There is so much cacophony among economists (experts), about the current state of the world economy. Each economist has his own analysis for the reasons and solutions for the current economic conundrum. Yes. It remains a conundrum to all these guys. None seem to have a clue. This is because the economists’ basic approach is flawed.

1.??????All their theories are preceded by assumptions. Pythagoras' theorem is not preceded by any assumptions. That is a definite theory. If theories are preceded with assumptions, then they are useful only as academic tools not as practical tools. The moment assumptions are permitted to be used for practical management of economies, a fertile ground for subjective manipulations by the mighty is created. If a theory can’t be put to practical use without assumptions, it should not be used. Period.

2.??????They always fall back on history to explain the current malady. They fall back on charts and graphs developed with subjective assumptions. If the current situation does not conform to the past on any aspect, they are clueless. IT has created a situation where is no similarity in documented history of the humankind.

3.??????They evolve their theories from the policy requirements of their bosses, not from the needs of the people at large. The policy requirements themselves are a cunning manipulation by the greedy rich through crafty narratives. They believe that, through media and through glib advertising they can create positive sentiments. Much of their theories center around the management of sentiments. To their credit, they did succeed all these years with this methodology. Unfortunately for them, this methodology has stopped working. Worse still is that they, as a flock, are oblivious to this fact, even as it is unfolding in front of their eyes.

I had always maintained that there is no subject called `Economics’. I read, hear, and watch many so-called (sic) expert economists. They have such varied interpretations for any single event. Theory of gravity does not change from scientist to scientist. Economics, however, has nothing definitive about it. Everything is just hot air. Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP), a company in the HR management solutions and Payroll space, has admitted that the methodology adopted by them for measuring the payroll numbers in America is faulty and they are redoing their methodology itself. The economists were quoting ADP’s numbers to justify their conclusions about the state of the economy.

Jerome Powell, in his Jackson Hole presser, said that FED will be following hawkish policies to contain inflation. He said the comfortable job situation in America, allows him to do this. Let me explain the job situation first. In just 2 years, 89 million people have resigned their jobs, as part of the `Great Resignation’ event. American corporates are crying that they are not able to find employees to work. There are also corporates who are laying off employees due to poor results of their companies. Many jobs have remained unfilled for years now. Whereas the unemployed data considers only those who applied as job seekers. The truth is that very few people are seeking jobs. Only Zoltan Pozsar of Credit Suisse seems to have understood this. In a recent article he concedes that those who resigned have gone to smaller towns and seem to have found some occupation for themselves in those towns. He concedes that they are not coming back. Jerome Powell is trying to kill jobs. Only laughable. Again, his decision is based on inflation numbers. This number is a highly subjective and cooked up number. Just to give an example, 26% weightage is given in the calculation of inflation to an imaginary figure called `Owners equivalent of rent’. Some odd process, vulnerable to heavy cook up, of conducting a survey of owners of property by asking them how much they would have charged as rent for even unoccupied and self-occupied properties. When people are not buying, what does it matter if the cost of any item is 1 dollar or 100 dollars? The consumption of Gasoline during this summer was less than even during the summer of 2020. This number has been consistently falling. Demand for which products is Jerome trying to kill?

The economists are saying that for the last 14 years, the American economy has shown weak performance. In the same period, the stock market has performed extremely well. How did this contradiction happen?. It took this many years (while I had identified it 4 years ago itself), for Alistair MacLeod to identify that, since 2000, the commercial banks have shifted their focus from main street to Wall street. If he had observed it earlier, what prevented him from highlighting it? Ruchir Sharma said a year ago that investments are not taking place in traditional industries. Is it enough for him to say this? Is it not incumbent on him to give the reasons? Jeff Snider, based on his masterclass analysis says that since 2011, the economy has not had sufficient collateral to support the expansion of money. This is same as saying that there has been no investment in tangible productive assets. Doesn’t he also have to explain why it is so? The point is, all these experts have no observation capability. They are blinkered. They know to analyse using their fossilized theories. I have been writing that there has been a behavioural change among vast majority of people. That has affected the demand and consumption. The change has been brought about by IT. We are in an eternal deflation. No one who is alive today is likely to see the reversal of this in his or her lifetime.

By the way the reason I take examples from America is that the so-called experts from America have the tendency to talk. That gives me the opportunities to learn more about America.

As for experts, they are same everywhere. I will give one example from India. The GDP is calculated by aggregating all expenditures namely private consumption, Government spending, Investments and the exports(net of imports). Until 2016, when demonetisation happened, while calculating private consumption certain percentage was taken for unorganized sector spending as there was no way to obtain the true numbers. There always used to be debate on the percentage as to whether it was 50% or 40% or anything else. After demonetisation, it is said that the compliance has improved and there for the share of unorganized sector in GDP calculations must have come down. But, who has the measure for the extent to which it has come down. Got It? Talking of inflation, when 60% of citizens basic food items are given free, what inflation are we talking about? The recent hoopla about India becoming the 4th largest economy beating Britain to the 4th position is funny. India did not achieve anything to get there. The countries are ranked by their respective GDP numbers expressed in US Dollar. Britain’s Pound Sterling lost more value against Dollar than Indian Rupee did. People are expecting Dollar to crash in the near future. Then India may end up above US too.

Honestly there is no meaning in all the economic measures of GDP, Inflation, Growth, Development, etc,. Truly, people want to live with happiness. The rest are clever narratives to disturb the happiness and push the people to keep striving endlessly. Luckily, nearly 85% of people in every country have adopted the change brought about by IT, inadvertently though, and have modified their lifestyle accordingly. They are immune to all these cacophony about economy, prices, jobs, recession, stagflation, disinflation (Wow), etc. Only among the stubborn 15% there is concern about, Inflation, Growth, Recession, Stock market crash, Commodity market crash, Housing bubble so on. If they have to go through changes in a painful manner, so be it

????????? ??? ?????? ?????? ??????????? ???????? ????????? ??????? ???????! – ??????????

Oh God, I do not know to think anything other than that all must live with happiness. Thayumanavar – Tamil Saint.

J Prakash

Author IT Killed Capitalism. Thank You Mr. Gates.

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www.jprakashconsulting.com

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