Expert Outlook: Trump’s Back to the Oval Office – What Does it Mean for the Gulf?

This expert analysis explores how renewed U.S. leadership under Trump could influence the balance of power in the Middle East, focusing on U.S.-GCC relations, Israel-Iran tensions, and Iraqi stability amid U.S.-Iran competition.

Trump’s Gulf Policy: His Push for “Peace” & Profits

Dr. Dania Thafer

Trump is likely to apply maximum pressure on Iran while simultaneously seeking to avoid regional war — a delicate balancing act that keeps GCC states on edge. Should he manage to strike this balance, he will ambitiously seek to achieve a deal with Iran...READ MORE

Trump’s Second Chance: A Path to Peace in Yemen

H.E. Dr. Abu Bakr Alqirbi

As Trump contemplates his second administration, it is crucial to acknowledge past failures and shift strategy. Any renewed engagement should prioritize ending the conflict and supporting a sustainable peace process. This would involve backing inclusive Yemeni-led negotiations, ensuring international guarantees for peace agreements, and promoting mechanisms to deter obstructive actors...READ MORE

Continuing the Momentum: U.S.-GCC Relations in a Second Trump Term?

Mohammad Alrumaihi

Given Trump’s established rapport with GCC leaders and his previous administration’s focus on bolstering security ties, it is anticipated that his second term would build on these foundations. Such continuity would align with GCC states’ shared foreign policy strategies of maintaining strong ties with Washington across administrations, ensuring ongoing U.S. support in defense and economic matters...READ MORE

Trump’s Return: Symbolic Alliances or Substantive Support?

Dr. Khalid AlJaber

A second Trump term might appear ideologically aligned with conservative values that resonate with parts?of the Gulf population. Yet, this alignment, grounded in conservative social values, does little to address the deeper economic and political challenges facing the region...READ MORE

Uncertain Hopes and Lingering Fears: GCC Reactions to Trump’s Return

Dr. Hind Al-Ansari

In Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)?societies, there are mixed feelings about President-Elect Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025. Some uncertainty stems from the complex legacy he left in the region after his departure in 2020, while others feel apprehension, and perhaps a faint glimmer of hope regarding how he might?handle the policies and challenges left by his Democratic predecessor...READ MORE

Trump 2.0: Energy Over Climate in U.S.-Gulf Relations

Dr. Umud Shokri

A second Trump term will?likely reshape U.S.-Gulf energy relations, with a focus on increased fossil fuel production and exports, while deprioritizing climate concerns. Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” approach would emphasize expanding domestic oil and gas output, potentially lowering global prices and challenging OPEC+ unity despite Trump’s strong ties with the kingdom...READ MORE

Iraq on Edge: Renewed Tensions in a Second Trump Era

Dr. Zeidon Alkinani

Given Trump’s prior hardline stance on Iran, a renewed term could signal a return to maximum pressure tactics, potentially provoking responses from Iran-aligned Iraqi militias. This scenario risks destabilizing?Iraq’s fragile security environment, straining U.S.-Iraq relations, and force Iraq’s leadership into a delicate balancing act. Iraqi officials face the challenge of preserving U.S. support, while minimizing domestic instability and avoiding entanglement in renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities...READ MORE