Expert Marks the Spot

This Week in Democracy?

• The Georgia Supreme Court rejected an attempt to reinstate a rule passed by the State Election Board that would have required all ballots cast in the state on Election Day to be counted by hand. States United filed a friend-of-the-court brief arguing that the Supreme Court should prevent the rule from going into effect, since hand counts impose significant delays, costs, and risks .? ?

?? READ: Our briefs and our report on the risks of hand counts ? ?

• The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that election officials must count voters’ provisional ballots if their mail-in ballots were rejected because of errors. “[W]e are at a loss to identify what honest voting principle is violated by recognizing the validity of one ballot cast by one voter,” the justices wrote. Pennsylvania voters can check the status of their mail-in ballots at this link .? ?

• In Arizona, former Cochise County Supervisor Peggy Judd pleaded guilty to charges related to her refusal to certify election results in 2022 . “Any attempt to interfere with elections in Arizona will not be tolerated,” Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes said in a statement . “My office will continue to pursue justice and ensure that anyone who undermines our electoral system is held accountable.”? ?

• Rudy Giuliani was ordered to turn over his New York apartment and a long list of personal belongings to two Georgia election workers whom he defamed after the 2020 election. A jury awarded the workers $148 million in damages in December because of the harassment and threats they faced as a result of the lies that Giuliani spread about them.? ?

• With 11 days to go until the November election, nearly 30 million Americans have already cast their ballots , whether by mail or in person. You can find information about how, when, and where to vote in your state at CanIVote.org .? ?

?? EXPLORE: CanIVote.org ?

Expert Marks the Spot?

When you see “expert reports” that claim to show evidence of election fraud, it’s a good idea to check under the hood. These claims are frequently based on unreliable data, junk science, or faulty reasoning. Often, the authors aren’t experts in the field. Upon closer inspection, the claims fall apart.?

Fake reports and false claims played a part in the failed plot to overturn the 2020 election, which led to the Jan. 6 insurrection. They were often cited in court papers in an attempt to make frivolous lawsuits look credible, and they were circulated on social media to stir up doubts about election security and make election-related conspiracies seem more believable. But these weren’t substantiated lawsuits raising real claims. Rather, they were press releases dressed up as lawsuits to get headlines. We can expect more of the same in 2024.?

So how can you spot bad election data? Justin Grimmer, a professor of political science at Stanford University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, recently joined States United to explain what to look out for . Dr. Grimmer is a real expert, with decades of experience in elections. He has served as an elections research expert in many legal cases, including some related to the 2020 election, and has published extensively on American politics and elections.?

Among the red flags that may indicate a fake report:?

• The author isn’t an expert in elections, voting, or anything related, or the report lists no author at all.?

• The report doesn’t say how or where its data came from.?

• The report doesn’t have a detailed methodology section that explains how the analysis was conducted.?

• The report makes claims about supposedly abnormal data, but it doesn’t establish what the normal pattern should be.?

• The report cites new and untested methodologies that haven’t been proven to detect fraud.?

So, beware if you see sketchy reports like these in the weeks ahead. They’re just one more way to undermine fair and accurate elections.?

State of the States??

In Michigan and North Carolina, judges rejected coordinated attempts to challenge the eligibility of voters living abroad, including members of the U.S. military and their families.?

Judge Sima Patel wrote that the effort in Michigan, brought by the Republican National Committee, was an “11th hour attempt” to disenfranchise voters. Patel also noted that the law being challenged has been in place since 2017. There is “no ground to invalidate” the existing rules governing Michigan’s overseas voters, especially this close to the election, she wrote.?

“The plaintiffs waited far too long to bring these claims,” Michigan Assistant Attorney General Erik Grill said . “This election is underway. … We shouldn’t be changing the rules for this election two-and-a-half weeks ahead of time.”?

In North Carolina, Superior Court Judge John Smith wrote that there is “absolutely no evidence” that any person has ever fraudulently voted from overseas, as the RNC claimed. “This court should not … treat an entire group of citizens differently based upon unsupported and speculative allegations for which there is not even a scintilla of substantive evidence,” he wrote .?

The Republican National Committee has said that it will appeal both rulings.?

In the News?

• The New York Times Magazine: The Army of Election Officials Ready to Reject the Vote (gift link)? ?

“Chaos is the strategy,’’ says Joanna Lydgate, the former chief deputy attorney general of Massachusetts who founded States United Democracy Center, a watchdog organization that works with state officials in both parties. “The strategy is ultimately about eroding public trust, priming the electorate for an attempted subversion of the election.”?

• CNN: ‘Election integrity’ groups have built digital infrastructure to collect examples of supposed voter fraud ? ?

“These apps, these websites are part of a broader trend of trying to undermine public trust, trying to cause chaos and ultimately trying to lay the groundwork to potentially question or try to overturn election results,” said Joanna Lydgate, the president and CEO of States United Democracy Center, a Washington, DC, based group founded to advance fair elections.? ?

Armies of amateur election police, primed with years of false ideas about voting insecurities, now stand ready to file complaints in central repositories, which could become fodder for post-election lawsuits.? ?

“What we witnessed in 2020 was more of an ad hoc approach to undermining elections,” Lydgate added. “The anti-democracy movement has become more sophisticated in the years since.”? ?

• The 19th: Trump lays groundwork to challenge potential Harris win with false narrative on noncitizen voters ? ?

“It’s putting our future elections at risk. It’s putting all of our votes at risk,” said Lizzie Ulmer, senior vice president of strategy and communications at States United Democracy Center, a nonpartisan organization that advocates for fair elections. “It’s something that is feeding doubt in our elections and that is going to potentially be used to try to overturn the will of the people.”? ?

• Law360: Fraud Cases Tee Up State Fights Over Stolen Election Claims ? ?

Dax Goldstein, senior counsel at election integrity nonprofit States United Democracy Center, said legal efforts like those appear to be laying the groundwork for attempts to overturn the election through administrative maneuvers, as happened in 2020.? ?

“One of the things we’ve been seeing is a real attempt to throw sand in the gears, to slow down the process and create doubt,” Goldstein said. “If election deniers don’t like the results, they’ve planted a time bomb that can be set off during the counting process and derail certification.”? ?

• Police1: IACP 2024 Quick Take: Priorities for law enforcement to safeguard democracy ?

Joanna Lydgate, JD, Chief Executive Officer, States United Democracy Center, led a discussion with three panelists.? ?

…? ?

SUDC is a non-partisan organization that works in states where elections are most closely contested to help prepare law enforcement leaders for elections. In this election season SUDC has observed voter intimidation, election official harassment and other threats to free and fair voting.?

• The New Republic: Trump Is Plotting With Infamous 2020 Lawyer on How to Steal Election ? ?

In July, Olsen was hit with an ethics complaint from the States United Democracy Center and Lawyers Defending American Democracy, who asked the Maryland Attorney Grievance Commission and the District of Columbia’s Office of Disciplinary Counsel to investigate Olsen’s election denial activities.? ?

“Kurt Olsen has abused his law license to spread lies about our elections in the courtroom time and time again, and his pattern of unethical conduct shows he’s not going to stop,” said Gillian Feiner, senior counsel at the States United Democracy Center, at the time.?

• Maine Morning Star: Bellows says unsubstantiated noncitizen voting claims ‘lay groundwork to challenge results’ ? ?

Dax Goldstein, senior counsel with the States United Democracy Center, a nonpartisan organization dedicated to advancing secure elections, underscored that voters can be confident in election security.? ?

“The truth is, our election officials have a system of checks and balances including cross-checking federal and state databases to help make sure only eligible voters register and vote,” Goldstein said. “These dedicated, experienced public servants are working hard to make sure our elections are accurate, fair and secure.”? ?

Clip of the Week?

States United and Issue One teamed up to support and recognize women election officials in a new digital campaign. The campaign includes a video that emphasizes the critical and often under-recognized role that women play in the election process. You can watch the video by clicking the image below.?

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